Friday Video – Risk Aversion Remains in Play, Utes, Staples and Healthcare Lead, 10-yr Treasury Yield Reverses Upswing (Premium)

The Fed has come and gone without much of a surprise, and the markets are saying good riddance. The market appears to be relieved that the statement is out of the way and the news flow will hopefully lessen. Volatility picked up significantly with the plunge on Back Friday

There could be a change afoot in the stock market over the past month (21 trading days) as money moves out of the riskier parts and into the more defensive areas. The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish overall and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Even though

Stocks started their rebound with 1-day breadth thrusts on December 2nd and continued higher this week. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead overall, while small-caps and next gen Nasdaq 100 stocks are lagging. After a big move last Tuesday, many of the high beta and momentum names fell back on Thursday and Friday. This pop and drop sets

Even though junk bonds bounced and the most oversold ETFs surged this week, the high beta end of the stock market continues to look shaky and this reflects risk aversion. Today’s commentary will look at relative weakness in Advance-Decline Percent for QQQ and

Stocks went from the edge of the abyss last week to a renewed bull market this week. Well, perhaps not so fast there cowboy. The price action over the last few days is certainly bullish because SPY broke out with a three day move accompanied by

The market went through the wringer the last two weeks and the bulls appear to have survived. Today’s analysis looks at the oversold setup and the strength behind the recent bounce. Even though the Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish, there are still reasons for concern and we will cover these.

Mid-caps, small-caps and high-beta stocks are weighing on the broader market, but SPY, QQQ and some large-caps are holding up. We are also seeing a shift away from risk in the bond market as the Junk Bond ETF (JNK) hit a 52-week low

Weakness in mid-caps and small-caps is finally taking its toll on the broader market and the Composite Breadth Model. We are also seeing S&P 500 breadth indicators deteriorate and dip towards bearish levels. Even though

Stocks were hit with a double whammy the last three trading days: the Omicron plunge on Black Friday and the Powell plunge on Tuesday. These, at least, seem to be the reasons given in the financial media. SPY fell 2.2% on Friday, rebounded somewhat on Monday and then fell 2% on Tuesday

I used to have a Friday night poker group and this was the motto when someone needed to call a big bet. Go big or fold. For the stock market, large-caps are the name of the game and technology is still the best performing sector

Big and sudden declines create short-term oversold conditions ripe for a short bounce, but they also distort chart patterns with their volatility. These outsized moves make chart analysis difficult and the volatility increases risk overall. Note that these moves occurred on a pseudo holiday and could be over-reactions

The bull market remains in place, but we are seeing some short-term weakness in the breadth indicators. This weakness is reflected in small-caps, which pulled back the last two days. Pullbacks from new highs are normal and this could produce a bullish setup in the coming

The Market Regime is bullish, which means we are in a bull market. However, there are signs of underlying weakness over the last few days and this could give way to a pullback. Note that predicting a pullback within a bigger uptrend is challenging because the bigger uptrend is still

After a nice run from early-mid October to early-mid November, trading conditions turned rough with choppy price action the last two weeks. The tech-related ETFs are still leading, but still quite extended short-term. Some old economy ETFs extended further on their medium-term breakouts and

The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising

The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week. Last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Is there a correlation here? Today’s commentary will look at the relationship between the 10-yr Treasury Yield and three relative performance charts

The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest