Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Market/ETF Video – Weakness under the Surface and in Key Groups, Defensive and Commodity ETFs Lead (Premium)

Market Regime
ETF Trend Signals

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish as the 5-day SMA for SPX crossed below the 200-day SMA. Despite whipsaws in the model, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA and High-Low Percent paint a picture of weakness in 2022. SPY and RSP may be holding up, but the other major index ETFs and key sectors are not. Utes, Staples, Healthcare and Energy are leading the sectors. We are also seeing continued strength in most commodity-related ETFs. Gold and silver came alive this past week with correction-ending breakouts.  The Aerospace & Defense ETF and Residential REIT ETF are setting up with bull flags, while the Cybersecurity ETF could be weighed down by the tech sector and the Clean Energy ETF could suffer from its connection with small-cap growth.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Flips Bearish
  • Small and Mid Cap Breadth Drags
  • Big Sectors in Downtrends (XLK, XLF, XLY, XLI, XLC)
  • Key Groups in Downtrends (ITB, XRT, KRE)
  • Tech ETFs Start from Lower Low and Fail Below February High
  • SPY: Impulse vs Counter-Trend Moves
  • QQQ Reverses after Counter-trend Bounce
  • IJR Breaks Wedge to Continue Downtrend
  • TLT Plunges to New Lows Again
  • Junk Bonds Follow TLT Lower
  • BBB Spreads Remain Elevated
  • GLD and SLV Break Out of Corrective Patterns
  • UUP Breaks Out and Hits New Highs

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • ETF Trend- Rank Table Review
  • Healthcare SPDR and Providers Hit New Highs (XLV, IHF)
  • Defensive ETFs Tag New Highs (XLU, PBJ, XLP, DVY)
  • DB Energy ETF Forms Bullish Consolidation (DBE)
  • Energy-Related ETFs Hold Strong (XLE, XES, XOP, FCG)
  • Agribusiness and Steel ETFs Form ST Bullish Consolidations (MOO, XME)
  • Residential REIT and Aerospace/Defense ETFs Form Bull Flags (PPA, REZ)
  • Copper Miners and Copper ETFs Pull Back within Choppy Uptrends (COPX, CPER)
  • DB Base Metals ETF Consolidates within Uptrend (DBB)
  • Uranium ETF Holds Strong (URA)
  • Palladium Breaks Out and Falls Back (PALL)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Breaks Out (DBA)
  • Coffee, Sugar and Wheat ETFs Extend On Breakouts (JO, CANE, WEAT)
  • Uptrends, But Wary (XLB, KIE, REMX)
  • Cybersecurity is Still Tech (CIBR)
  • Clean Energy is Still Small-cap High Beta (PBW)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defining Oversold, Working with Sentiment Indicators, High Beta vs Low Volatility (Premium)

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The broad market ETFs were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday with growth oriented groups leading the way lower. SPY fell 1%, QQQ was down 2.17%, the Semiconductor ETF fell 2.5% and the Russell 2000 Growth ETF was down 1.88%. In contrast, groups associated

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Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defensive Groups Lead Split Market, Commodity ETFs Set Up with Pullbacks, Wary of Flag Breakouts (Premium)

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There are large pockets of strength in the stock market, but also large pockets of weakness. In fact, these pockets are almost equal and this is the reason the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since Thanksgiving. The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish and split. The S&P 500 trend model is net bullish

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Trend Composite Strategy (Part 8) – Increasing Trade Frequency and Total Return with Percent Profit Targets

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Today’s article is the eighth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. Last week we looked at ATR Trailing Stops and time-based exits, but these did not add much value. Today we will add various profit targets based on percentage gains. The strategy will still sell when/if the Trend

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 8) – Increasing Trade Frequency and Total Return with Percent Profit Targets Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Price and Breadth Thrusts, the Real ETF Leaders, Commodity ETFs Still Strong, PALL Pullback, KRE Setup (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. Analysis, then turns to the ETFs charts with leading trends, emerging trends and setups.

Market/ETF Video – Price and Breadth Thrusts, the Real ETF Leaders, Commodity ETFs Still Strong, PALL Pullback, KRE Setup (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (part 7) – Trend-Momo AllW50 BB ETF Strategy, the Nature of Trend-Following, Live Example with Signal/Ranking Table

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The Composite Breadth Model turned bullish on Friday and this means the Market Regime is bullish. This also means the Trend Composite strategy outlined in part five can now choose trend-momentum signals in stock-related ETFs. Please review part five for details on this strategy.

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Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium)

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It as been 18 days since Putin invaded Ukraine and SPY is up 5.32% since the close on Wednesday, February 23rd. QQQ is up 6.3% and IWM is 6.5%. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an alleged safe-haven, is down 4.6%. While the gains in stocks are

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section

Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives

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Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium)

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It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)

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The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium) Read More »

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