Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Setting expectations is part of a strategy and this includes expectations for the number of signals we can expect in any given year. Signal frequency, of course, depends on your strategy and timeframe. Short-term mean-reversion
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The stock market is as mixed as it ever with defensive issues leading, banks and energy breaking out, materials and infrastructure holding up and tech stocks taking it on the chin. Healthcare ETFs were also hit quite hard this week. Six of the magnificent seven (stocks) are under pressure and this is weighing on cap-weighed SPY and QQQ.
Stocks were rattled on Wednesday with Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary leading the way lower. As noted on Tuesday, the magnificent seven dominate these three sectors. Selling pressure was not limited to tech as REITs, Biotechs, Airlines and
QQQ and the Technology SPDR are holding up and near new highs, but there are still some serious pockets of underperformance within the tech sector and even within the top stocks. Today’s commentary will look at QQQ breadth, the big seven and QQQ’s little brother, QQQJ. We will analyze charts
Stocks started the new year with gains, but there were still some pockets of weakness. The Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) fell as money shied away from high beta tech, weakness in transports weighed on the Industrials SPDR and the Materials SPDR fell over 1%. The Russell 2000 ETF gained
The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish with the bounce in stocks over the last five days. Even so, the market remains quite divided right now. Large-caps are still leading, small-caps are still lagging and mid-caps remain caught in the middle. The divide is visible within some sectors as well.
The Networking ETF (IGN) is leading the market with a solid uptrend and a new high this week. Diving into the group, I found a stock that recently broke out and formed a
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The stock market is about as divided as can be. It is clear that this is no longer a bull market that lifts all boats. Should we get a bear market, it may not be one that sinks most boats. The Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, but could go either way as the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above the 200-day SMA gyrates around
This commentary will cover bonds, gold, silver and the Dollar. Oil was covered in the ETF Report on Wednesday. TLT and the 10-yr Yield have big continuation patterns working, but the swings within these patterns are going the other way. Gold is going for a breakout as silver surges off support. The Dollar became overbought after a big advance and stalled the last few weeks.
Even though the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, the stock market seems to be more split than anything. This means we could see some sort of rotation instead of a broad bear market. In fact, we are already seeing some signs in December and there are splits within sectors. In Consumer Discretionary
Stocks fell sharply the last three days with QQQ and SPY leading the way as they fell 4.12% and 3.32%, respectively. Small-caps held up better as IWM fell just 1.4%. Nevertheless, IWM is trading near its summer lows and the weakest of the three over the past month and since March.
Risk aversion is spreading in the stock market. High-beta ETFs bore the brunt of selling pressure over the last several weeks and QQQ is starting to show some signs of buckling. On the flipside, money is moving into defensive groups with Utilities, Staples, Healthcare and REITs hitting new highs.
The Fed has come and gone without much of a surprise, and the markets are saying good riddance. The market appears to be relieved that the statement is out of the way and the news flow will hopefully lessen. Volatility picked up significantly with the plunge on Back Friday
There could be a change afoot in the stock market over the past month (21 trading days) as money moves out of the riskier parts and into the more defensive areas. The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish overall and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Even though
Stocks started their rebound with 1-day breadth thrusts on December 2nd and continued higher this week. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead overall, while small-caps and next gen Nasdaq 100 stocks are lagging. After a big move last Tuesday, many of the high beta and momentum names fell back on Thursday and Friday. This pop and drop sets
Even though junk bonds bounced and the most oversold ETFs surged this week, the high beta end of the stock market continues to look shaky and this reflects risk aversion. Today’s commentary will look at relative weakness in Advance-Decline Percent for QQQ and
Stocks went from the edge of the abyss last week to a renewed bull market this week. Well, perhaps not so fast there cowboy. The price action over the last few days is certainly bullish because SPY broke out with a three day move accompanied by
The market went through the wringer the last two weeks and the bulls appear to have survived. Today’s analysis looks at the oversold setup and the strength behind the recent bounce. Even though the Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish, there are still reasons for concern and we will cover these.
Signs of risk aversion are increasing in the financial markets. Risk aversion first appeared in the junk bond market in October and this week we are seeing money move into Treasury bonds, the ultimate safe havens.
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Mid-caps, small-caps and high-beta stocks are weighing on the broader market, but SPY, QQQ and some large-caps are holding up. We are also seeing a shift away from risk in the bond market as the Junk Bond ETF (JNK) hit a 52-week low
