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Market/ETF Video – Volatile Price Action with Downtrend, TLT Hits New Low, Only A Handful of Uptrends in the ETF Universe (Premium)

Market Regime
ETF Trend Signals

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads remain elevated and the overall environment for stocks remains bearish. Price action in the major index ETFs turned choppy and volatile the last few weeks, but this is considered noise within a larger downtrend. September and October are two of the more volatile months of the year so extra volatility should not come as a surprise. Elsewhere, the 10-yr Treasury Yield is near 4% and near its high of the year and the Dollar is in an uptrend. The pickings are extremely thin within the ETF universe because the vast majority are in downtrends. Some ETFs are holding up better than others though and we will highlight ETFs related to biotech, energy, networking, defense and regional banks. Keep in mind, however, that we are still in a bear market and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • Fed Balance Sheet Reflects QT
  • CCC and BBB Spreads Remain Elevated
  • SPY Turns Volatile as QQQ Leads Lower
  • Small-caps Hold Up, but Ignoring Short-term Reversals
  • TLT hits New Low as 10yr Yield Hits 4%
  • Dollar Bullish ETF Stalls within Uptrend
  • Gold Falls Back Towards September Lows

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Only 7 (2.5%) of 274 ETFs in Uptrends
  • Biotech SPDR Holds Up, but Palladium ETF Tests Support (XBI, IBB, PALL)
  • Trend Composite Turns Bullish for Livestock ETF (COW)
  • XLK, XLF, XLI, XLC, XLP, XLRE and XLU Bounce from 52-week Lows
  • XLV Holds Above Summer Lows, but Still in Downtrend
  • Tech ETFs Bounce from 52wk Lows (SKYY, CIBR, FINX, FDN, SOXX, IGV)
  • Networking ETF Is Best Performing Tech ETF (IGN)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF Reverses Downswing with Gap-Surge (PPA)
  • The Siren Song from the Home Construction ETF (ITB)
  • Retail, EW Discretionary and Autos Bounce from 52wk Lows (XRT, RCD, CARZ)
  • Regional Bank ETF Breaks Early October High, But… (KRE)
  • Oil Hits Resistance Zone and Falls Sharply
  • DB Energy ETF Tests 200-day SMA (DBE, DBC)
  • Energy ETFs Hold Up Despite Drop in Oil (XLE, XOP, FCG, XES)
  • DB Base Metals ETF Nears Jul-Sep Lows
  • Agribusiness and Copper Miners ETFs Consolidate within Downtrends (MOO, COPX)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Tests Aug-Sep Lows
  • Wheat ETF Tests Support as Corn ETF Holds Up (WEAT, CORN)
  • Soybeans Looks Poised for a Breakdown (SOYB)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market and ETF Report – Bounce within Bigger Downtrend, A Few ETFs Showing Relative Strength, Energy ETFs Hit Moment of truth (Premium)

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The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a long-term downtrend, but in the midst of a oversold bounce, which started with the outside reversal day on Thursday. SPY started this bounce after a 52-week low so this is still considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. Stocks

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Market and ETF Report – ETFs Showing Medium and Short Term Relative Strength (Less Weakness), A Look at Gold Miners Breadth (Premium)

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Today’s report is a motley mix of ETFs. Only two are in actual uptrends (biotech and the Dollar). The Trend Composites for the clean energy ETFs turned negative on Wednesday so these are clearly out of the picture now. While many ETFs broke their summer lows in September and broke their late September lows in October, some held above both of these lows

Market and ETF Report – ETFs Showing Medium and Short Term Relative Strength (Less Weakness), A Look at Gold Miners Breadth (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Downtrend Overpowers 2-day Pop, Energy ETFs Hit Short-term Resistance, Wheat and Ag Hold Uptrends (Premium)

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Stocks did the old pop and drop with the market surging Monday-Tuesday last week and then falling the next four days. Many ETFs moved to new lows, but some managed to hold above last week’s lows. Several tech and bond related ETFs hit fresh 52-week lows, which

Market and ETF Report – Downtrend Overpowers 2-day Pop, Energy ETFs Hit Short-term Resistance, Wheat and Ag Hold Uptrends (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Yields Spreads Continue to Widen, Oversold Bounces within Downtrends, A Handful of ETFs Bounce within Uptrends (Premium)

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Stocks got a big bounce the last two days, but this is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. SPY, QQQ and IWM fell sharply the last two weeks of September and were ripe for such a bounce. Overall, the

Market/ETF Video – Yields Spreads Continue to Widen, Oversold Bounces within Downtrends, A Handful of ETFs Bounce within Uptrends (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Dollar and Yields Pullback, Stocks Bounce, From Oversold Setup to Short-term Momentum Pop (Premium)

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The Dollar finally took a breather from its rapid ascent with a four day pullback and we also saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield fall from around 4% to 3.6%. The Dollar represents the risk-off trade so the pullback facilitated a bounce in

Market and ETF Report – Dollar and Yields Pullback, Stocks Bounce, From Oversold Setup to Short-term Momentum Pop (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Bonds Plunge with Outsized Move, Oil and Metals Weak on Demand Destruction, Dollar Goes Parabolic, Wheat and Coffee Hold Up (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives

Market/ETF Video – Bonds Plunge with Outsized Move, Oil and Metals Weak on Demand Destruction, Dollar Goes Parabolic, Wheat and Coffee Hold Up (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Bear Expands Territory, Energy and Clean Energy Succumb, Ag Hit, Wheat and Palladium Hold Out (Premium)

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The bears remain in control of the stock market and they are expanding their territory with breakdowns in energy, a clean energy and biotech. Stock-based ETFs are still part of the market and this became abundantly clear as all stock based ETFs in the ETF Master List fell over the last

Market and ETF Report – Bear Expands Territory, Energy and Clean Energy Succumb, Ag Hit, Wheat and Palladium Hold Out (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Broad Market Weighs, Uranium Pulls Back, Copper Firms, Palladium Grinds Higher and Silver Shines (Premium)

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The Fed has come and gone, and the ugliness in the markets remains. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as SPY lost 1.79%. Bonds bounced with a sequence of sell-the-rumor (rate hike) and buy-the-news (actual hike). Sell short on the prospect of rate hikes and cover when the big

Market and ETF Report – Broad Market Weighs, Uranium Pulls Back, Copper Firms, Palladium Grinds Higher and Silver Shines (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks

Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Downtrends Dominate, Tech Leads Lower, Defensives not Immune, Clean Energy Holds Up (Premium)

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Volatility remains above average in the markets and now we have a Fed meeting to contend with. There is only one thing to do when the Fed meets: turn off your news feed and wait a few days for the dust to settle. Knee jerk reactions are

Market and ETF Report – Downtrends Dominate, Tech Leads Lower, Defensives not Immune, Clean Energy Holds Up (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Volatility Remains High, Big Sectors Fail in Unison, Defensive Groups not Immune, Agriculture ETFs Hold Up (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are

Market/ETF Video – Volatility Remains High, Big Sectors Fail in Unison, Defensive Groups not Immune, Agriculture ETFs Hold Up (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Short-term Surges within Bigger Downtrends, Energy ETFs Hold Up, Clean Energy and Biotech Show Leadership (Premium)

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Stocks surged the last four days with another big move. It seems that there is no such thing as “average” anymore as we are seeing big moves both up and down. The chart below shows SPY with the 5% zigzag in red. This red line only

Market and ETF Report – Short-term Surges within Bigger Downtrends, Energy ETFs Hold Up, Clean Energy and Biotech Show Leadership (Premium) Read More »

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