Market/ETF Video – Weight of Evidence Bearish, Large-caps Lagging, Precious Metals Leading (Premium)

We start the New Year with a negative Composite Breadth Model and bear market environment. 2022 was the year of the whipsaw and largely a year to forget. Nobody knows that 2023 will bring, but the bear market environment indicate that risk remains above average for

Today’s report will start with a stock market overview with analysis of the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and three key industry group ETFs (SOXX, XRT, ITB). Housing is holding up, but the other five broke down and the weight

Today’s update starts with the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) because they broke down over the last few days and their breakdowns signal a continuation of the long-term downtrends. Moreover, the Composite Breadth Model turned

The weight of the evidence favors the bulls because the Composite Breadth Model is positive, but the stock market is as divided as ever. Today’s report will show three different ETF groups: the lead group holding support, the weak group

The weight of the short-term evidence remains bullish for stocks. Even though SPX %Above 20-day SMA plunged below 60% to trigger bearish, SPY has yet to break support and the key intermarket relationships

2022 is the year of big swings with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) capturing this phenomenon. Both ETFs surged some 20% in 34 days

This is a broad market update because we have the Composite Breadth Model saying one thing and the price charts saying something else. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive a week ago

Stocks surged with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Some 95% of S&P 500 stocks were up, 96% of Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced and 93% of S&P 1500 stocks gained ground. Tech and high-beta ETFs, which were still the most beaten down, led the way with the biggest gains

The battles for the 200-day remain in focus for several ETFs. The S&P 500 and some key industry group ETFs surged towards their falling 200-day SMAs. Follow through would trigger a breakout and potential long-term trend reversal, while failure to follow through and short-term reversals

The perfect storm hit the stock market over the past month and gave way to a sizable counter-trend bounce from mid October to mid November. The positive forces included oversold conditions in late September and early October, positive seasonal patterns

There were some big moves over the last three days as the markets reacted to lower-than-expected inflation numbers. Stocks have been moving higher since mid October with many ETFs sporting double digit gains the last five weeks. Many of these big moves