Market/ETF Video – Short-term Uptrends Reverse, High-beta and Tech ETFs Lag, Defensive ETFs Take the Lead (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model is bullish, but there are some serious pockets of weakness within the market. Namely, small-caps, high-beta ETFs and tech-related ETFs. Selling pressure increased on Tuesday and many ETFs broke their early April lows to reverse their upswings

Market/ETF Video – Short-term Uptrends Reverse, High-beta and Tech ETFs Lag, Defensive ETFs Take the Lead (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Small-caps Lagging, Watching Short-term Supports, Defensive Groups Leading (Premium)

The weight of the evidence is largely bullish for stocks, but it is clearly a tale of two markets. Large-caps and high-quality stocks are holding up better than small-caps and high-beta stocks. We are also seeing money move into defensive groups with leadership coming from healthcare,

Market and ETF Report – Small-caps Lagging, Watching Short-term Supports, Defensive Groups Leading (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – McClellan Oscillator becomes Overbought, Waning Participation, Key Supports to Watch (Premium)

Today’s report starts with analysis using the McClellan Oscillator. We will look at three different periods to see how the signals work in different market environments. Most recently, this indicator became overbought two weeks ago.

Market and ETF Report – McClellan Oscillator becomes Overbought, Waning Participation, Key Supports to Watch (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence is Bullish, Market Remains Split, Defensive Groups Extend on Breakouts (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model is bullish at +5, but there are splits when looking at the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA for the different indexes and yield spreads. Small-caps are underperforming and the CCC spread shows stress at the low end of the bond market.

Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence is Bullish, Market Remains Split, Defensive Groups Extend on Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY is Overbought, Watching High-beta ETFs, Defensive ETFs Extend on Breakouts (Premium)

Stocks surged from mid March to early April and this created short-term overbought conditions for SPY, XLK and QQQ. Large-cap tech and high-quality stocks led the rally. Small-caps and high-beta stocks lagged the market during this advance, but

Market and ETF Report – SPY is Overbought, Watching High-beta ETFs, Defensive ETFs Extend on Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – A Fragile +5 in the CBM, Performance Differentials are Concerning, Breakouts in two Defensive ETFs (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and at +5, but I would characterize this as a fragile +5. Today’s video will dive into the five inputs that make up the model and show why the +5 looks fragile. SPY and QQQ are in uptrends and continue to lead, but the equal-weight S&P 500 and IWM are in downtrends

Market/ETF Video – A Fragile +5 in the CBM, Performance Differentials are Concerning, Breakouts in two Defensive ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Techs Lead the Charge Again, Small-caps Still Lagging, Healthcare-Related ETFs Get Breakouts (Premium)

It remains a tale of two markets. Large-caps and large-cap techs are leading, while small-caps are lagging. The chart below shows QQQ exceeding its early March high in mid March and SPY exceeding this high last week. IWM remains some 7% below this high. The performance differentials since March 1st are also large. QQQ is up 9%, SPY

Market and ETF Report – Techs Lead the Charge Again, Small-caps Still Lagging, Healthcare-Related ETFs Get Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Tape vs Fed, Precious Metals Lead, Tech Holds Strong, Industrial Metals Go for Breakouts (Premium)

The stock market is mixed, very mixed. The tape is bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative, but large-caps are holding up because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Yield spreads remain elevated and show stress

Market/ETF Video – Tape vs Fed, Precious Metals Lead, Tech Holds Strong, Industrial Metals Go for Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Breadth Remains Weak, Large-caps Holding Up, Consumer Staples SPDR Perks Up (Premium)

Strength in the stock market is narrow, which means a handful of stocks are keeping the market afloat. Put another way, weakness within the stock market is broad-based, which means the majority of stocks are under pressure. We can see this in the breadth indicators and the small-cap ETFs. SPY and QQQ are

Market and ETF Report – Breadth Remains Weak, Large-caps Holding Up, Consumer Staples SPDR Perks Up (Premium) Read More »

Why Use Market Filters?, Indicator Settings Are Double-Edged Swords, the Best Performing Market Filter

Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme

Why Use Market Filters?, Indicator Settings Are Double-Edged Swords, the Best Performing Market Filter Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium)

The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to

Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Big Swings and Rotations within the Market, Big Tech Leads, Defensives Lag with Downswings (Premium)

The market went through some serious rotations over the last few months. The Finance sector led the market off the October low and then fell apart over the last four weeks. Healthcare and the defensive groups led the market from early October to

Market and ETF Report – Big Swings and Rotations within the Market, Big Tech Leads, Defensives Lag with Downswings (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium)

The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday, yield spreads widened significantly over the past week and SPY broke wedge support. Risk for stocks and stock-based ETFs is above average right

Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium) Read More »

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