Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads, SPY and QQQ. We then turn to key levels for tech ETFs and highlight the leaders. Commodity-related ETFs are strong since August and we are seeing breakouts base metals, agriculture and others. This report also features three stocks: two from healthcare and one from defense.
We are still in a bull market, but some risk-on groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading. Interest rate sensitive groups are leading. After hard hits in early September, tech names recovered this week with strong advances. We will put these into context and show key levels to watch (QQQ, XLK, MAGS, SOXX). The other four tech ETFs (IGV, CIBR, SKYY, FINX) are holding up better. This report also cover MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, DELL, AVGO and NVDA.
Any strategy that trades stocks needs some sort of market timing mechanism to identify bull and bear markets. Typically, stock strategies are fully invested during bull markets because risk is acceptable. Strategies move to cash
Market Timing for a Rules-Based Strategy Read More »
Strategy Update (last close: August 31st, 2024) The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to lead the way for the Dual Momentum
Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy (S&P 500) – Details and Performance (latest) Read More »
This comprehensive report and video are published every Friday morning, which gives readers a few days to cover and digest the information. We start with broad market analysis using our breadth models, long-term trends, yield spreads and market disposition. Attention then turns to key groups and leading groups (using ETFs). Based on the leaders, we then feature some stocks with breakouts and trading setups. This report ends with analysis of TLT, GLD and Bitcoin.
Today’s report starts with the CBM and yield spread to define the broad market environment. Despite bull market conditions, odds are increasing for corrective period. We are seeing relative and absolute weakness in key groups, leadership in defensive groups and weak seasonal patterns. GLD and TLT remain strong, while Bitcoin remains weak. We finished with PODD and META.
Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify “big bang” moves by showing price change in ATR terms. We can use the price charts to identify big breakouts. Today’s example will show
It all Started with a Big Bang! (Free) Read More »
Today’s report starts with the CBM to define the market. We then address the recent market mood swing as volatility picked up, techs started lagging and defensive groups started leading. Cybersecurity and Fintech are leading within tech and we feature four stocks from these groups. Symbols Covered: XLU, XLP, XLV, XLK, SOXX, CYBR, IGV, FINX, XLRE, ITB, ITA, KIE, IBB, FAN, PBJ, PANW, CYBR, JKHY, PYPL
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a new closing high this week. While this high is certainly bullish and points to upside leadership, the real signal triggered back in early July as the Trend Composite turned bullish with an outsized move. Let’s review this signal and then look at a recent signal in
This Housing-Related Stock Just Printed a 5 for the Trend Composite Read More »
This report covers the broad market environment and will be updated every Friday. We start with the breadth models to define the broad market environment (bull market or bear market). The first model covers the broader market, while the second model emphasizes the Nasdaq 100. And finally, we finish with yield spreads to assess conditions in the credit markets.
ChartTrader – Broad Breadth Model – SPX-NDX Breadth Model – Yield Spreads (Premium) Read More »
Today’s report starts with short-term overbought conditions, the 12 day surge and the increase in volatility. We then turn to the long-term trends for SPY, QQQ and MAGS. Several tech-related ETFs and tech stocks broke short-term resistance levels and we will set the key levels to watch going forward. Analysis covers SOXX, IGV, CIBR, NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, GOOGL, MSFT and more.
This report starts with the leaders over the last ten days and the leaders based on 52-week highs. Large-cap tech stocks led the 10-day surge, but Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Biotech are leading on charts. We then analyze the Healthcare SPDR, Biotech ETF and three Healthcare stocks (CAH, INCY, ILMN)
This report starts with the Healthcare SPDR because it is one of the leading sectors right now. Also notice that the Consumer Staples SPDR, Utilities SPDR and Real Estate SPDR are also leading with new highs this week. Leadership from the defensive sectors points to some risk
This report starts a long-term look at the Nikkei, which started breaking down in July. US stocks rebounded after sharp declines on August 5th, but they have yet to fully recover and remain in short-term downtrends. We will look at the corrections in SPY, QQQ and MAGS.
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.
TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead Read More »
Increasing uncertainty is causing the markets to reprice. SPY, QQQ and IWM hit new highs in July and were priced for the best of all worlds. We then got a shakeup in the presidential race, a weak jobs report and a route in the Nikkei. Markets do not like uncertainty and
Selling pressure broadened over the last three days with the broader market (S&P 500 stocks) joining tech-related stocks (Nasdaq 100 stocks) in the sell off. The long-term trends are still up for SPY and QQQ. In addition, the Composite Breadth Model and the SPX-NDX Breadth model remain
QQQ is leading the market lower and weighing on tech stocks. The long-term trend is up and oversold breadth could present an opportunity. Short-term breadth has yet to become oversold and this means we may have further downside first.
This Breadth Indicator Points to More Downside – And a Potential Opportunity Read More »
This report starts with the short-term breakouts in SPY and QQQ. Battered semiconductor stocks led the surge and we will look at the Semiconductor ETF today. We also cover the Software and Cybersecurity ETFs, which represent
This report starts with the long-term breadth indicators to confirm the bull market. Overall, S&P 500 stocks are stronger than Nasdaq 100 stocks. SPY and QQQ are in the midst of pullbacks and have yet to become oversold. Thus, they could have further to go before bouncing. We will then update the breakouts in
