Market-ETF Report – Upswings Hold – Defensive ETFs Lead – Updates for GLD, IBIT, UNG, DBA

The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look like counter-trend bounces. Stocks are also short-term overbought. Strategically, the long-term downtrends and bear market are negative. Tactically, upside could be limited as resistance levels come into play and short-term conditions become overbought.

This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators

The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look

Chartists can also use the 200-day SMA and the direction of the 200-day SMA to compare performance. ETFs trading above their rising 200-day SMAs are performing better than those trading below their falling 200-day SMAs. Overall, 23 of the 72 core ETFs are trading above their rising 200-day SMAs.

Today’s video starts with the long-term trend and breadth indicators to define the broad market environment. We then turn to the Zweig Breadth Thrust and show the key SPY levels to watch going forward. Stocks are all over the place in April, but a handful of leaders emerged with uptrends, relative strength and breakouts. Elsewhere, the Bitcoin ETF extended on its breakout and GLD is still looking extended.

After hitting oversold extremes in early April, breadth indicators bounced the last few weeks with the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMA hitting 36%. This also means that 66% are below their 200-day SMAs and in long-term downtrends. You cannot have a bull market with

Stocks are all over the place in April with a breakdown at the beginning and a Zweig Breadth Thrust towards the end. April price action seems to dominate, but it was the March breakdowns that reversed the long-term uptrends. The weight of the evidence also turned bearish in mid March as long-term breadth indicators also triggered. Currently, the long-term

Today’s report starts with the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which failed to trigger for the S&P 500, but remains a possibility for the S&P 1500. Follow through in the coming days is needed to trigger. We then turn to detailed analysis of SPY, which is below its falling 200-day SMA and near short-term resistance. Stocks are still broadly out of favor with eight of the eleven sectors

The weight of the evidence remains bearish, but stocks are currently experiencing an oversold bounce. This video will show upside targets and show what it takes to go from a bear market bounce to a bullish breadth thrust. Attention then turns to nine equity ETFs that are holding up the best, including two tech-related ETFs. In the alternative asset group, Bitcoin broke out and the DB Agriculture ETF is making a move. Gold is going parabolic and getting dangerous.

The long-term trends and breadth charts have been net bearish since mid March. SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) are in long-term downtrend since early-mid March. Six of the nine breadth indicators were bearish as of mid March. The bond market and Fed policy are the wild cards.

The next report/video will be on Wednesday, April 23rd.  Short-term, the stock market is like the silver ball in a

Today’s report will focus on some commodity-related ETFs for two reasons. First, we are in a bear market for stocks. Second, these ETFs are in uptrends. Despite these uptrends, volatility is increasing in this group as well. There is no escaping volatility these days. We will also cover Bitcoin because it is an alternative asset that is setting up.

The weight of the evidence remains bearish. Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but we have yet to see follow through strong enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust. SPY and QQQ are in long-term downtrends and near short-term resistance levels after their oversold bounces, which creates a precarious situation. In fact, several ETFs are hitting resistance levels after oversold bounces. Some ETFs are even showing relative strength, but this really means “less weakness”. Gold remains the ultimate safe-haven and Bitcoin has a bullish failure swing working.

Even with the big rebound last week, the vast majority of stocks are below their 200 and 150 day SMAs. Only 23% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs (77% below), and only 20% are above their 150-day SMAs (80% below). New lows expanded last week with over 30% of S&P 1500 stocks hitting 52-week lows.

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and the bounce over the last four days is considered an oversold bounce. Our short-term breadth thrust indicators have yet to trigger. Until these indicators trigger, I will consider this a bear market bounce. This means negative outcomes are still more likely than positive outcomes. Resistance zones are more likely to hold and support levels are more likely to be broken. In short, risk in stocks remains above average. See this report for an update on the thrust indicators..