The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in the midst of a strong advance since mid July as it became “overbought” on July 20th and remains overbought. Today’s article will show how to measure overbought and oversold levels using StochClose, which is a version of the Stochastic Oscillator that uses closing prices.
The Composite Breadth Model at TrendInvestorPro has been bearish since April 11th and remains bearish, which suggests that the current bounce in SPY is a counter-trend advance within a bigger downtrend. Also note that
Led by its top two components, Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) followed a bullish signal from the Trend Composite with a big breakout to confirm a large bullish reversal pattern. Let’s start with the Trend Composite, which aggregates trend signals in five trend-following indicators. The chart below shows TAN …
TAN Follows Trend Composite Signal with Breakout (Free) Read More »
The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) is reversing its downswing after becoming oversold within an uptrend. This analysis will cover the long-term trend using the chart and Trend Composite, the oversold conditions using the Momentum Composite and the short-term breakout over the last few days.
The bigger trend is one of the most important factors to consider when trading stocks or ETFs. We can use trend signals as part of a trend-following strategy or to dictate our trading bias. I look for bullish setups and pullback opportunities
Sector PerfCharts provide clear performance snapshots of the market mood and the market mood is defensive. The PerfCharts below show the percentage change for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the eleven sectors. These sectors can be divided into three groups: offensive sectors, defensive sectors and other.
After a big surge in the second half of March, stocks fell back this week as the S&P 500 declined around 2%. This modest decline is warranted after the March surge, but it was not enough to push sentiment to an extreme. The AAII Bears are back above 40%, but two other sentiment indicators barely budged.
Volatility is through the roof for many commodities and commodity-related ETFs, but this does not mean we have to abandon technical analysis and classic setups. High volatility does, however, imply higher risk and we probably need to give setups a little more wiggle room.
Several trading themes emerged over the past month and these themes could have legs. Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago and the broader market is significantly higher since the invasion. The Russell 2000 ETF is up
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 5.77% from Tuesday to Thursday and this is the biggest 3-day surge since the 6.07% advance on November 5th, 2020. This early November surge led to a breakout and the advance extended until January 2022
The broad market environment is the single most important factor to consider when investing in stocks or stock-related ETFs. Are we in a bull market or a bear market? The recent expansion of new lows and the 5/200 cross in the S&P 500 suggest that we are in a bear market environment.
The pickings are rather slim with just 61 of the 276 ETFs in the TrendInvestorPro Master List in uptrends. Unsurprisingly, most of the ETFs in uptrends are related to commodities (energy, metals, agriculture). Outside of commodities, we are seeing
The chart below shows the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) with two sets of annotations: a future possibility and the current reality. The future possibility shows that a bullish reversal could be
Buyers and sellers are slugging it out for control of the long-term trend for the S&P 500. This battle is raging near the 200-day SMA, which is perhaps the most widely followed long-term moving average. The S&P 500 is also the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks.
It’s been a rough year for much of the market, but the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) is bucking the selling pressure as it challenges its 2021 highs and the price relative breaks out. There is also a big
The 200-day SMA is quite the battle zone when it comes to the S&P 500. In fact, the index has crossed this key moving average 165 times since 2000. That’s a lot of crosses, and a lot of needless whipsaws. Chartists can reduce whipsaws and improve performance by applying
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) reversed its uptrend signal from April 17th, 2020 as two trend-following indicators turned bearish this week. The chart below shows QQQ with the deepest decline from a high since the 10.9% decline in
The DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) was featured in ChartWatchers on October 1st as it formed a large cup-with-handle pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern
Setting expectations is part of a strategy and this includes expectations for the number of signals we can expect in any given year. Signal frequency, of course, depends on your strategy and timeframe. Short-term mean-reversion
The Networking ETF (IGN) is leading the market with a solid uptrend and a new high this week. Diving into the group, I found a stock that recently broke out and formed a
Signs of risk aversion are increasing in the financial markets. Risk aversion first appeared in the junk bond market in October and this week we are seeing money move into Treasury bonds, the ultimate safe havens.