The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) is breaking out of a bullish continuation pattern after a Bollinger Band squeeze and this signals a continuation of the long-term uptrend.
Dozens of high flying stocks and ETFs are down double digits from their February highs, but chartists should put these declines into perspective when analyzing the charts. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) declined over 30% from their February highs to their March lows, but …
I wrote about the Biotech ETF (IBB) on February 28th as it pulled back from a new high. The pullback was viewed as a correction within the bigger uptrend, but the correction extended further than expected. At the time, I drew a falling wedge on the chart and marked resistance with the red line at 163.
Two items are dominating the news right now: the rise in interest rates and decline in tech stocks. Are rising rates really an issue for tech stocks? The charts suggest that the evidence is mixed, at best. In fact, it is not very hard to find periods when tech stocks rose along with sharp rises in the 10-year Treasury yield.
With a pullback led by QQQ and the high flyers, several ETFs have become short-term oversold in a longer term uptrend. In Dow Theory terms, the primary trend for these ETFs is up and the secondary trend is down. A secondary downtrend within a primary uptrend is considered a correction within that uptrend and a possible opportunity.
The Nasdaq 100 has been on a tear the last few months with a move to new highs, but a medium-term breadth indicator is not keeping pace here in February. This indicator is simply flashing the yellow caution sign right now and we have yet to see an actual signal that would point to a correction. Here’s what to look for.
The seasonal patterns over the next two months are not very strong, but price action is strong with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. Price action is more important than the seasonal pattern because profits and losses are driven by price changes, not seasonal tendencies. Seasonality becomes a force when it aligns with price action. Let’s investigate.
Last weekend’s post showed the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) with a 10 day overbought streak and several ETFs with even bigger overbought streaks. These streaks came to an end this week as SOXX fell 6.21%, its biggest weekly decline since mid March. As measured by Normalized ROC, this is an outsized decline that argues for at least a corrective period over the next few weeks.
The Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and several other ETFs are on a serious roll in 2021. For the fourth time since 2009, 14-day RSI was above 70 for ten or more days. This is an exceptional streak, but SOXX is not alone and there are even longer streaks. The following list shows some ETFs and the number of days RSI has been above 70: ROBO (39), DRIV (25), ARKQ (13), EWT (13), MOO (12), XRT (11), SOXX (10), YOLO (10). Note that these numbers are based on Thursday’s close.
Visual chart analysis is prone to subjectivity and biases. While we cannot completely remove subjectivity, we can approach chart analysis in a systematic fashion and increase objectivity. This commentary will show an example using the Home Construction ETF (ITB) because the ETF has traded flat since mid October. Is this a top or merely a correction?
There was a serious shift over the last five weeks as commodities surged, bonds fell and the Dollar recorded new lows. There were also some noticeable divergences as the Inflation-Indexed Bond ETF (TIP) edged higher and the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moved lower. This divergence is only five weeks old, but it does suggest a whiff of
The weekly high-low range for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) was the narrowest of the year this past week and the ETF is battling triangle resistance. A narrowing range shows indecision and a volatility contraction. Even though this is just one weekly bar, QQQ is at a moment of truth. Will we see a triangle breakout and continuation higher or a failure at resistance and extended correction?
New highs and a fast growing industry group make for a powerful combination. Today’s article will focus on two ETFs that capture two fast growing industries, video gaming and esports. We will show why these two ETFs are leading, why a consolidation within an uptrend is bullish and why a 50-day SMA is better suited for mean-reversion trading.
Breadth indicators, such as Advance-Decline Percent, measure the participation behind a move in the underlying index. Sometimes participation is so strong that it tips the scales and signals the start of an extended move. For example, 10-day EMA of SPX AD% triggered a bearish breadth thrust on February 25th and the S&P 500 extended lower.