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The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) threw a tantrum this week with the biggest two day decline since March 2020, which was a very chaotic month. With a sharp decline in bonds, the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke above its summer highs and the bulls

The AAII indicators make some waves this past week as AAII percent bears surged to 39.3% and percent bulls dropped to 22.40%. As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since

Chartists often face a conundrum when a new trend signal triggers because the stock or ETF is frequently extended when this signal triggers. After all, it takes strong buying pressure for a new uptrend to signal. Short-term overbought or extended conditions are long-term bullish, but these

Today’s commentary will start with price chart analysis for a clean energy ETF, which once led the market with triple digit gains. After a corrective period, it appears that this high flying ETF and a few of its brethren are turning up again with recent trend signals. We will start with the price chart analysis and then turn to the systematic signals.

The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) provides a case in point. On the chart below, notice how RSI surged above 70 in late November and exceeded 70 again in January

The Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the 10-yr Treasury Yield are positively correlated and the recent surge in the 10-yr yield led to a breakout in the Regional Bank ETF.

The decline in the 10-yr yield is not the only factor at work in the markets, but there is clearly a correlation at work recently, especially with banks. The chart below shows

The Energy SPDR (XLE) is setting up to end its correction and resume its bigger uptrend. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because the Trend Composite signaled an uptrend (gray circle) in late November when the majority of indicators turned bullish. There are five trend-following indicators in the Trend Composite and all five …

XLE Bids to End Correction and Resume Uptrend (Free) Read More »

After leading the market into February 2020, tech-related ETFs were hit with strong selling pressure into March and extended their corrections into May. Large triangles formed in several and they broke out of these bullish continuation patterns

Traders interested in Treasury bonds, Treasury bond ETFs and yields would be better off ignoring Fed-speak and focusing on the charts. The bond market leads the Fed, not the other way around. There is a battle raging for the heart and soul of the bond market. In a rare divergence, short-term yields are rising and …

Mind the 10-year Yield Chart, Not the Fed (Free) Read More »

SPY experienced its biggest weekly decline (-2.2%) since late February and the nine-week Rate-of-Change turned negative for the first time since late October. The ETF also closed below its 10-day SMA for the first time since late January. Normally, a close or dip below the 10-week

The 5G Next Generation ETF (FIVG) is taking the lead within the tech space as it breaks out of a bullish continuation pattern. FIVG is leading because it recorded a new high here in early June. Not very many tech-related ETFs hit new highs here in early June and this makes it relatively easy to separate the leaders from the laggards.

Some of the old Ford and GM cars can still rev their engines, but the sound of a revving engine could go the way of the dodo. Perhaps, I should say that the price chart for the Global Auto ETF (CARZ) is revving its engine and poised for a breakout.

The Gold SPDR (GLD) crossed above its 200-day EMA in early May and its 200-day SMA this past week. Both signals are “bullish” and point to a long-term uptrend, but tell us little regarding realistic expectations going forward. To get a better understanding, we need

The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) was hit with the rest of the tech sector over the last few weeks, but it held the March lows and is on my radar as a possible triangle forms over the last few months. In particular, I am watching

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high last week, but it was alone at the top because several other major index ETFs did not confirm. In fact, these non-confirmations have been building since March as fewer groups participated. Of note, several tech-related ETFs peaked in

The Regional Bank ETF pattern over the last few months is similar to that of the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF. This is not surprising because the financial services sector accounts for 17.8% of IJR and 16.34% of IWM, and is the second biggest sector for both

The long-term trend for the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) remains up, but the ETF is coming under some selling pressure and underperforming the broader market. While this is not enough reason to turn long-term bearish, it does increase the odds of corrective period in the coming weeks.

The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are lagging the market, but they are still in uptrends and the noose is tightening. Today we will look at the volatility contraction in IJR and the loss of trend in IWM

Small-cap breadth is seriously lagging large-cap breadth, but we have yet to see a bearish breadth thrust or a breakdown in the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR), which is currently consolidating. This commentary will look at the breadth thrust signals and compare the percentage of stocks above the 50-day SMA for the S&P 500 and the S&P SmallCap 600.