Market-ETF Report – Stocks Fall – Gold, Silver, IBIT & Yields Surge – Trailing Stops

Stocks were hit as SPY fell 1.69%, its largest 1-day decline since April 21st, which was just before the Zweig Breadth Thrust. We do not need to look far for the reasons. First, stocks were short-term overbought after the surge from April 22nd to May 20th. SPY was up over 16% in 20 days. Second, the 30-yr Treasury Yield surged above 5% and hit a new high

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Market-ETF Vid – Mind the Gaps, 5/200 Cross and Overbought Condition – Gold/Silver Perk Up

Stocks started improving with the Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th and continued with a bullish 5/200 cross. Despite a strong advance, breadth has yet to expand to levels that signal a bull market. SPY and QQQ are holding their gaps and 200-day SMAs, but short-term overbought after big moves. We will show the key levels to watch. Elsewhere, year-to-date performance highlights the true leaders and metals are perking up.

Market-ETF Vid – Mind the Gaps, 5/200 Cross and Overbought Condition – Gold/Silver Perk Up Read More »

Market Regime – Zweig and 5/200 Cross Bullish, but Long-term Breadth net Bearish

It seems as if there are conflicting signals in the stock market. The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered bullish on April 24th and the 5/200 Filter Cross triggered bullish on May 15th, but the long-term trend and breadth indicators remain decidedly bearish. NDX %Above 200-day SMA ($NDXA200R) is the only indicator (of 15) to trigger bullish.

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Market-ETF Report – Large-caps Lead – New Highs in XLI and ITA – Utes Extend on Breakout

The bullish evidence continues to build, but the long-term breadth indicators have yet to turn net bullish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY, QQQ and RSP break their 200-day SMAs. These are bullish indications for large-caps and, perhaps

Market-ETF Report – Large-caps Lead – New Highs in XLI and ITA – Utes Extend on Breakout Read More »

Improve Performance with Smoothing, Filters and a Twist – 200-day Cross for SPY/QQQ

SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. In addition, the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA to reverse the bearish trend signal from mid March. The V-Reversal since late March was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but the 5/200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal

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Market-ETF Report – Mind the Gap-Surge – Year-to-date Leaders – Four Big Sectors Lead

SPY and QQQ hit their moment of truth in early May – and then powered through their March support breaks with gap-surges on Monday. These were the moves that reversed the long-term downtrends. Even though the long-term breadth indicators have yet to signal a bull market, SPY and QQQ are in uptrends, as our four big sectors. This is clearly positive for stocks, and

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Market-ETF Video – SPY/QQQ Negate Breakdowns – Tech ETFs Lead Rebound – Gold Consolidates

Stocks extended after the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals in late April with SPY and QQQ negating their March support breaks. Tech-related ETFs made sharp U-turns with leading moves over the last five weeks. Despite impressive gains, these ETFs are short-term overbought. Elsewhere, gold and silver are consolidating after big gains, IBIT extended on its breakout and ITA hit a new high.

Market-ETF Video – SPY/QQQ Negate Breakdowns – Tech ETFs Lead Rebound – Gold Consolidates Read More »

Market Regime – NDX Breadth Leads Bounce – Spreads Narrow – 10yr Yield Holds Breakout

Stocks plunged in historic fashion with long-term breadth indicators reaching extremes in early April. Stocks then surged in historic fashion with a Zweig Breadth Thrust and steep advance. The plunge is like stretching a rubber band and the rebound is the effect of letting go. The further the stretch, the bigger the snap back.

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Market-ETF Report – Stocks Extend on Thrust Signals – Tech ETFs Lead, but become Overbought

The thrust continued on Monday with SPY surging 3.3% and the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above their 50-day SMA hitting its highest level since December 2nd. The chart below shows an update for the S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust strategy. A bullish thrust triggered on April 24th and SPY extended above

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V Reversals – Capitulation – The V – Interesting Levels vs Bull Markets – Relative Risk

Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. With the recent gains, SPY is back near the 200-day SMA and 61.8% retracement, which puts this key benchmark at an “interesting” juncture. Interesting? Yes. Bull market? No. What does it take to go from an interesting juncture to a bull market?

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Market-ETF Report – Upswings Hold – Defensive ETFs Lead – Updates for GLD, IBIT, UNG, DBA

SPY and QQQ are in a short-term uptrend that include a Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th. Even though the long-term trends and breadth indicators remain bearish, this short-term uptrend remains in play as long as the wedges rise in SPY and QQQ. As noted in these first charts, I am looking for confirmation from S&P 1500 Percent Above 50-day SMA ($SUPA50R) as the

Market-ETF Report – Upswings Hold – Defensive ETFs Lead – Updates for GLD, IBIT, UNG, DBA Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Long-term Breadth vs Thrusts – Wedges and Overbought in Downtrends

The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look like counter-trend bounces. Stocks are also short-term overbought. Strategically, the long-term downtrends and bear market are negative. Tactically, upside could be limited as resistance levels come into play and short-term conditions become overbought.

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Market Regime – Bear Market Bounce – Spreads Narrow – TLT Holds Breakout

This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators

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Market-ETF Report – Long-term Down + Short-term Overbought = Not Ideal

The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look

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Trend Trio Signal for ITA – Few Uptrends – GLD Remains Frothy – Software Breaks Out

Chartists can also use the 200-day SMA and the direction of the 200-day SMA to compare performance. ETFs trading above their rising 200-day SMAs are performing better than those trading below their falling 200-day SMAs. Overall, 23 of the 72 core ETFs are trading above their rising 200-day SMAs.

Trend Trio Signal for ITA – Few Uptrends – GLD Remains Frothy – Software Breaks Out Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Bear Market vs ZBT – SPY/QQQ Resistance – ETFs with Leading Breakouts

Today’s video starts with the long-term trend and breadth indicators to define the broad market environment. We then turn to the Zweig Breadth Thrust and show the key SPY levels to watch going forward. Stocks are all over the place in April, but a handful of leaders emerged with uptrends, relative strength and breakouts. Elsewhere, the Bitcoin ETF extended on its breakout and GLD is still looking extended.

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Market-ETF Report – ZBT Update – Key SPY/QQQ Levels – XLK Resistance – Breakouts in Play

Stocks are all over the place in April with a breakdown at the beginning and a Zweig Breadth Thrust towards the end. April price action seems to dominate, but it was the March breakdowns that reversed the long-term uptrends. The weight of the evidence also turned bearish in mid March as long-term breadth indicators also triggered. Currently, the long-term

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Thrust Signals using %Above SMA Breadth – Theory, Practice, Reality

Besides the Zweig Breadth Thrust, chartists can identify bullish thrusts using short-term breadth indicators, such as the percentage of stocks above their 20 and 50 day SMAs (simple moving averages). Breadth thrust signals reflect a sharp turnaround in participation that can foreshadow an extended uptrend. Thrust signals start with a setup that shows very few stocks

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