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Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium)

The markets are getting rattled with big moves after the invasion of Ukraine, but these moves are in the direction of existing trends. Oil, industrial metals, gold and agriculture were already in market leading uptrends. They are also up strong today. SPY, QQQ and many ETFs were already in downtrends after impulse declines in January. There were oversold bounces in February, but

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Noose Tightens for Small-caps, Growth Perks Up, Mid-week Head Fakes, Metals and China (Premium)

After getting derailed with a curve ball on Tuesday, the bulls rebounded stocks ended the week on a high note. Again, a wide array of ETFs recorded fresh 52-week highs and there are plenty of strong groups in the stock market. This week we are seeing a possible return to growth, clean energy and China

Weekend Video – Noose Tightens for Small-caps, Growth Perks Up, Mid-week Head Fakes, Metals and China (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – Defensive Sectors Surge, SPY and QQQ Remain Extended, Bonds Bounce, New High for Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but some yellow flags are starting to appear. Yellow flags argue for some caution and are not outright bearish. For example, defensive sectors are leading, but the offensive sectors are still holding up, even though they are lagging. Small-caps are

Timing Models – Defensive Sectors Surge, SPY and QQQ Remain Extended, Bonds Bounce, New High for Fed Balance Sheet (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead, IWM Cup Half Full, Metals Break Out, Emerging Markets ETFs Turns (Premium)

SPY hit yet another new high, nine sector SPDRs hit new highs and the breadth indicators show broad strength within this large-cap benchmark. QQQ also hit a new high as large-cap techs extended their rebound. Small-caps and small-cap growth remain the laggards, but their cups are still half full

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead, IWM Cup Half Full, Metals Break Out, Emerging Markets ETFs Turns (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – Large-caps Extend Lead, Small-Caps Lag, Utes and REITs Lead, IWO hits Moment of truth (Premium)

Large-caps and large-cap techs ripped higher the last five-six weeks with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs. The Technology SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR are leading the charge among the sectors with 13+ percent gains. Keep in mind that Amazon accounts for 23.5% of XLY and Tesla accounts for 14.45%. These two are not exactly pure plays in the

Timing Models – Large-caps Extend Lead, Small-Caps Lag, Utes and REITs Lead, IWO hits Moment of truth (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals and Ag ETFs Break Out, High-Flyers Languish, RSI Bullish Failure Swings (Premium)

There is plenty of strength within the stock market and also a few pockets of weakness, or lackluster performance. SPY and QQQ hit new highs this week. This shows broad strength within the S&P 500 and large-cap tech stocks. There were new highs in ETFs related to finance, tech, industrials, materials, healthcare, housing, steel, REITs, semiconductors

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals and Ag ETFs Break Out, High-Flyers Languish, RSI Bullish Failure Swings (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – QQQ Joins SPY with New High, Yield Spreads Narrow, Oil Hits Resistance and ETF Charts (Premium)

Equity-related ETFs continued strong this week with large-cap techs leading the way here in April. SPY also hit a new high, but small-caps are lagging as IWM stalls. Bank and energy related ETFs are also dragging their feet a little. Relative weakness is not a concern because IWM, KRE and XES

Weekend Video – QQQ Joins SPY with New High, Yield Spreads Narrow, Oil Hits Resistance and ETF Charts (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – SPY Hits New High as XLY and XLK Lead, IWM Consolidates, Yield Spreads Narrow Even Further (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Timing Models – SPY Hits New High as XLY and XLK Lead, IWM Consolidates, Yield Spreads Narrow Even Further (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead with New Highs, Big Techs Perk Up, High-flyers Remain Subdued (Premium)

There are plenty of strong pockets in the stock market with several cyclically oriented ETFs hitting new highs and large-cap techs coming back to life. This month we are seeing new highs in ETFs related to industrials, materials, housing, semiconductors, transports and steel. We are also seeing some big moves in ETFs dominated by large-cap tech. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit a new high and I consider Amazon, its

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead with New Highs, Big Techs Perk Up, High-flyers Remain Subdued (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – SPY Leads, QQQ Surges, Housing and Industrials Hit New High, HERO and COPX Break Out (Premium)

The S&P 500 hit a new all time high this week and large-cap techs perked up with QQQ surging. Small-caps are lagging, but IWM is not really bearish. The Composite Breadth Model remains firmly bullish with the short-term indicators for the S&P 500 outpacing those in the S&P 1500. Yield spreads narrowed further this week, while the Fed balance sheet contracted a little.

Weekend Video – SPY Leads, QQQ Surges, Housing and Industrials Hit New High, HERO and COPX Break Out (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – SPY Leads, QQQ Perks Up, SPX Leads Composite Breadth Model and Yield Spreads Narrow (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR

Timing Models – SPY Leads, QQQ Perks Up, SPX Leads Composite Breadth Model and Yield Spreads Narrow (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Mixed Market with Strength in Cyclicals and Non-Cyclicals, Large Cap Techs Perk Up (Premium)

The market continues to be mixed and bullish. Techs and high-flying ETFs led the correction from the February highs to the March lows, but we are now seeing signs of short-term leadership in large-cap techs, namely QQQ and XLK. These two held well above their early March lows and broke out of flag patterns. Other tech-related ETFs and high-flyers are

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Mixed Market with Strength in Cyclicals and Non-Cyclicals, Large Cap Techs Perk Up (Premium) Read More »

Putting Declines into Perspective with the ARK ETFs – CARZ Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern (Premium)

Today’s commentary will focus on three ARK ETFs. Overall, there are eight ARK ETFs that capture cutting-edge technology or innovation in several areas. Six of the eight have been trading for more than three years. The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) started trading in February 2019 and the ARK Space Exploration ETF

Putting Declines into Perspective with the ARK ETFs – CARZ Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern (Premium) Read More »

News Flash! Big Advances Deserve Big Corrections and Proper Perspective – Tesla Example (Free)

Dozens of high flying stocks and ETFs are down double digits from their February highs, but chartists should put these declines into perspective when analyzing the charts. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the Clean Energy ETF (PBW) and the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) declined over 30% from their February highs to their March lows, but

News Flash! Big Advances Deserve Big Corrections and Proper Perspective – Tesla Example (Free) Read More »

Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium)

Today’s video starts with the corrections in QQQ and IWM, and the resilience in SPY. Techs started the corrective process and small-caps joined this week, but large-caps in the S&P 500 remain immune. Nevertheless, QQQ has a flag breakout working and shows some short-term relative strength. Stocks could find another wind from two bullish seasonal

Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium) Read More »

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