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Cracks are appearing in the technology sector and Nasdaq 100. This is an important development because these two were responsible for most of the gains within the S&P 500. Housing, regional banks and consumer discretionary were already leading lower.
The market shows more signs of risk aversion with breakdowns in technology-related ETFs, strength in insurance and bonds, and a downtrend signal in Bitcoin. The Semiconductor ETF is holding up, but the Software ETF and ARK Innovation ETF are breaking down. Money is rotating from
Precious metals continue to lead the pack with the Silver ETF (SLV) sporting the biggest gain over the last three months (+40%). Industrial metals are also outperforming stocks with the Copper ETF (CPER) and DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) up over 10%. QQQ is up a measly 7%. Even bonds are up with TLT gaining 3.65% and
Nucor (NUE) is steel stock that is part of the Materials SPDR (XLB) and Metals & Mining SPDR (XME). XLB is a lagging sector because of the chemical industry, but XME is a leading group with a 65% year-to-date gain. The DJ US Steel Index ($DJUSST) is also leading with a 24.6% gain this year.
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are large pockets of weakness within the market. 56.6% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 43.4% are below and in long-term downtrends. Even though this is a rather large swath of the market, the cup
Stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought during strong uptrends. We see this play out in QQQ as it moved above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) several times and continued higher. Bollinger Bands (200,2) are two standard
Stock market performance remains mixed with a high percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading below their 200-day SMAs. This number has yet to exceed 50%, but should be watched because the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors show deterioration. Despite a mixed market, the Healthcare sector is rising above the
There are some interesting developments in the alternative ETF universe. Gold, silver and their respective miners corrected within leading uptrends. This means they are setting up bullish. Bonds got clobbered the last six days, but TLT is also setting up bullish as it tests the prior breakout. The Bitcoin ETF hit a six month low to become
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness with some 45% of S&P 500 components trading below their 200-day SMAs. This makes it a challenging environment for stock picking.
While the weight of the evidence has yet to turn bearish, the market is becoming more split as the pockets of weakness expand. 54.80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which is the lowest percentage since June. This also
While there are concerns with broad market breadth and performance outside of the tech sector, the bull market is not over until QQQ sings. In fact, even a correction is unlikely as long as QQQ and Nasdaq 100 breadth remain strong. Today’s report starts with the influence
QQQ is looking overbought because it closed above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) twice this week. As noted in Part 1, stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought in strong uptrends. This is why we need a momentum indicator to signal a bearish shift. This report will first show how to use StochRSI for momentum shifts and then identify the key levels for Nasdaq 100 breadth.
Gold, silver and their respective miners show the same chart characteristics: long-term uptrends, explosive moves from late August to mid October, sharp corrections the last eight days and short-term oversold conditions. We will start with the Gold SPDR (GLD) chart because gold is
These are the charts from my interview with Jim Puplava and Financial Sense on Thursday, October 30thy. Overbought conditions can persist in strong uptrends (SPY, QQQ). MAGS is not yet overbought. Plus XLI, Breadth, IEF, Gold, Copper and Bitcoin.
The market environment remains bullish with tech and AI related stocks leading the charge. Today’s report features a stock that fits in both the semiconductor and software groups (Cadence CDNS). We will also cover Tesla, which is part of the Mag7 ETF, another market leader. Attention then turns to an off-price retailer with a breakout (Burlington Stores BURL).