Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:
ChartTrader – ST Evidence Bullish, IWM Lags, Symbols: XLE, XLC, XLK, IGV, SKYY, CIBR, AMD, FTNT, LLY, HPE – (Premium)
Stocks fell on Tuesday and then recovered somewhat on Wednesday. Overall, SPY is leading the market with the strongest short-term uptrend. QQQ stalled since March 1st, but this is just a consolidation within a bigger uptrend.
ChartTrader – Long and Short Term Uptrends, Watching TLT and $TNX, Symbols: CPER, URA, XBI, VRTX, REGN – (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for the long-term and the short-term. Long-term, the Composite Breadth Model is positive. Short-term, 4wk High-Low Percent for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remains net bullish, while SPY and QQQ continue to stair-step higher.
Overbought Conditions Reflect Strength and Said Strength Drives Momentum Rotation Strategies
Momentum and trend strategies are off to a roaring start here in 2024. More often than not, these strategies buy leading stocks that appear overbought. Buying stocks that appear overbought often goes against our “gut feel”, but overbought conditions reflect strong buying pressure and this is clearly
ChartTrader – Participation Broadens, XLV Surges, XLK Stalls – Symbols: IWM, SOXX, XBI, IDXX, HON, MARA (Premium)
The first chart shows 4wk High-Low Percent for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. There is a detailed explanation below the chart. This SPX/NDX combo turned bullish on November 2nd
ChartTrader – 52wk High vs 4wk Highs – Symbols: HUBS, ILMN, SQ, FINX, NOW, IGV – (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, both long-term and short-term. Some groups within the Nasdaq 100 corrected over the last two months. S&P 500 stocks picked up this slack as 52-week highs
An Indicator to Define the Trend and Quantify Momentum
The 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. As its name implies, it is a simple indicator that chartists can use for trend-following and momentum strategies. For trend-following, we just need to know
ChartTrader – Bull Run Extends, Symbols: MDY, URA, GPN, ADSK, DDOG, SWK, VRTX – (Premium)
The bull run continues with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surging 2% the last three days and hitting another new high. Four of the eleven sectors hit new high (Finance, Industrials, Communication Services and Materials). We also saw new highs in several economically sensitive groups: Home Construction ETF (ITB), Retail SPDR (XRT)
ChartTrader – Market Overview – Symbols: IGV, MSFT, ADBE, CIBR, CRWD, CYBR, PANW, ZS, $TNX, XLRE, XLU (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but I continue to see sizable pockets of short-term and medium-term weakness. Upside participation within the Nasdaq 100 and S&P SmallCap 600 is deteriorating. The S&P 500 is still holding strong and the 4wk High-Low Percent combo
20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Resumes its Downtrend
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Resumes its Uptrend
The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) is showing strength here in March as it breaks back above its 40-week SMA. More importantly, the long-term trend is up and this week’s breakout argues for a continuation of this uptrend.
ChartTrader – Using the ATR Stop to Define the Uptrends in NVDA, META, MSFT and AMZN – SPY and QQQ Hold Strong (Premium)
The first chart below shows the 4-wk High-Low Percent indicators for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. I explain the indicator and signals below the chart. This indicator combo turned bullish on November 2nd
ChartTrader – 240312: IBB, ON, SWK – Advance Broadens – Steep Uptrends Hold – Leading ETFs (Premium)
Some tech stocks stumbled over the last few weeks, but other parts of the market picked up the slack. The chart below shows the percentage of stocks above their 50-day SMAs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. This indicator
Using the ATR Trailing Stop to Manage the Trade and Define the Trend
As its name suggests, the ATR Trailing Stop is normally used to trail a stop-loss for a long position. It can also be used to identify an outsized decline that could reverse an uptrend. Today’s example will show how to apply the ATR Trailing Stop on
ChartTrader – 240307: MRNA, ILMN – 4wk High-Low% is Bullish – Using ATR Stop to Define the Trend (Premium)
We remain in a bull market and the short-term trends are up for the major index ETFs. I am seeing weakness within the Nasdaq 100 and S&P SmallCap 600, but improvements within the S&P 500 and S&P MidCap 400. Today’s report will then look at 4-week High-Low Percent for the major index ETFs.
ChartTrader – 240305: MDY, XLRE, XLU, TLT, KBWB, ZTS, CVS, TDY (Premium)
We are in a bull market, but the stock market is not firing on all cylinders in 2024. Overall, the weight of the evidence remains bullish because most cylinders are firing and supporting the uptrends. Note that the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) closed at new highs on Monday.
Spotting Tradable Pullbacks after Trend Reversing Surges
Most stocks surged with the broader market in the fourth quarter of 2023. SPY and QQQ extended their advances in 2024, but some stocks did not partake and fell back. Even so, some of these stocks show signs of long-term trend reversals and their declines in
Chart Trader – 240229: MDY, URA, CGSP, ZTS, CAH (Premium)
The short-term uptrend remains intact for SPY. The first chart updates SPX %Above 50-day SMA and SPX 4-week High-Low Percent. Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day SMAs in early January and only 64% are above here in late February (mustard arrow). Fewer stocks are participating
ChartTrader – SPY/QQQ Maintain ST Uptrends, Four Stocks Lead Mag7, Setups: COPX, XME, EA (Premium)
Long-term, the weight of the evidence remains bullish. The chart below shows the bullish sequence starting with the Zweig Breadth Thrust on November 3rd. See the ZBT1500 Thrust in the middle window and the green arrows on the price
Finding Leaders and Bullish Signals on the Price Chart
Chartists can improve their odds by focusing on stocks that are in long-term uptrends and showing upside leadership. This is similar to a dual-momentum approach, which was covered last week. Today’s example will use the 40-week SMA to define the trend, a 52-week high
ChartTrader – Palo Alto Returns to Earth, SPY and QQQ Hold Uptrends, Setups: XLRE, URA, ROBO, KBWB, TDY (Premium)
Stocks fell back this week with declines over the last two days, but the futures are pointing to a sharply higher open after Nvidia exceeded expectations. Once again, pullbacks are very short-lived as the market quickly rebounds
ChartTrader – SPY and QQQ Establish First Supports, XLK Forms Island Reversal, Support for CIBR, IGV, SMH, Setups for IBB, LHX (Premium)
We are in a bull market, but some indicators are still pointing to a corrective period and a correction may have started last week. First, fewer stocks made it back above their 50-day SMAs as SPY moved higher in the first half of February. Second, seasonal patterns turned negative last week (mid February). Thinking in tornado terms, a tornado
Capturing the Momentum Phenomenon
The momentum phenomenon has been a fixture in the US equity markets for decades. There are two types of momentum to consider: absolute momentum and relative momentum. Absolute momentum refers to the underlying trend, up or down
ChartTrader – New Supports for SPY and QQQ, Mid-caps Partake, Follow-Up: IPAY and IOT, Symbol Setups: IBB, AMGN, VRTX, STE (Premium)
Fewer stocks are partaking in the current advance, but SPY remains in a short-term uptrend and 4wk High-Low Percent is bullish. The chart below shows SPY moving higher
ChartTrader – Correction Warnings Build, Watching for the Signal, Symbol Setups: MDY, GOOGL, AAPL, AMD, BAX (Premium)
We are in a bull market, but evidence is pointing to a corrective period and a correction could begin this week. Warning signs appeared over the last few weeks as fewer stocks made it back above their 20-day SMAs this month. Seasonal patterns are also