Recent Reports on TrendInvestorPro
Small-caps Lead – Breadth Improves as SPY Pulls Back – Industrials SPDR Sets Up
SPY pulled back in early June, but remains in bull market mode with improving breadth. The bull market is broadening with more stocks moving above their 200-day SMAs. This is especially true for small-caps, which were leading in March and continue to lead in June. Within the S&P 500, I am seeing a bullish setup in the Industrials SPDR. $SPY $IJR $SPXA200R $SMLA200R $XLK !GT200XLI
Rising Rates and Hawkish Fed Weigh on Gold/Silver – Copper Miners Hits MoT
Precious metals were hit hard this week with gold, silver and platinum breaking their 200-day SMAs. All three are now in downtrends. Today’s report will cover these breakdowns and show why the macro backdrop is negative for precious metals. The 2-yr Treasury Yield is rising and above the Fed Funds Target Rate, which points to a hawkish Fed. We will chart the macro shifts since 2021 and lay out the bear case for gold, and possibly stocks. $GLD $SLV $$FEDTGT $UST2Y $GDX $COPX $URA $SRUUF
Breadth Improves as SPY Falls – Yield Spreads Remain Narrow – 10yr Trends Higher
SPY and QQQ fell sharply in June as tech and AI names led a market pullback. Breadth, however, improved as the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMA increased. Over 60% of S&P 500 and S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which is the highest level since mid April. New highs also expanded. This means money is moving out of tech and into other areas of the market, which benefits small-caps and mid-caps.
Hyperscaler Debt – MAGS Lags – Overextended Semis – Software Volatility
Today’s report will focus on the Mag7 ETF and Semiconductors ($MAGS, $SOXX, $SMH). Hyperscalers drive AI spending and semiconductors are the main beneficiary. MAGS shows relative weakness and the semiconductor ETFs are extremely stretched. Keep in mind that semiconductors account for 48% of the Technology SPDR and tech accounts for 37.26% of SPY.
Breakouts in Finance, Brokers, Banks, Defense – Setups in Biotech and Med Devices
There are signs of money is moving into groups related to the finance and healthcare sectors. The Finance SPDR, Broker-Dealer ETF and Bank ETFs are breaking out with strong moves the last five days. Within healthcare, the biotech ETFs are setting up with bullish consolidation patterns. Even the lowly Medical Devices ETF is perking up with a double bottom and an bullish Aroon cross. $XLF, $IAI, $KRE, $KBE, $ITA, $IHI, $XBI, $IBB
Outsized Declines Signal Character Change for SPY/QQQ and Market Rotation
SPY and QQQ fell sharply on Friday with outsized declines. The 1-day percentage losses were the highest since January, scene of another character change. While the weight of the evidence remains bullish and SPY/QQQ remain in uptrends, this character change could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market and a rotation into other groups. $SPY $QQQ $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $RSP
Healthcare Looks Healthy Again with Breadth Surge and Breakout
Chartists looking for participation shifts can monitor the percentage of stocks above their 200 and 50 day EMAs. StockCharts tracks these indicators for the major indexes and the sector SPDRs. Today’s report will focus on big participation shift in sector breadth and chart analysis for the Healthcare SPDR. $XLV !GT200XLV !GT50XLV
Gold Gets Interesting – Copper Leads as Miners Break Out – Uranium Sets Up
Gold continues to test a Bullish Setup Zone as Silver consolidates at a make-or-break area. The Gold Miners ETF has a triangle breakdown working. Industrial metals remain strong with physical uranium setting up bullish. The Copper Miners ETF is holding its triangle breakout as the Uranium Miners ETF bounces off support. Agriculture was hit hard, but the DB Agriculture ETF is still in an uptrend and at the top of a Bullish Setup Zone. $GLD $SLV $GDX $CPER $DBB $USL $DBA $URA $SRUUF
Baker Hughes, Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls and PG&E
Today’s report starts with the oil patch as Baker Hughes returns to the breakout zone. We then feature two stocks from the industrials sector. Trane Technologies pulled back to a Bullish Setup Zone and Johnson Controls broke out of a falling wedge. We end with a utility stock (PG&E) that is firming at its rising 200-day SMA. $BKR $TT $JCI $PCG
Consolidations in Industrials, Finance and Comm Services – Breakouts in Defense and Brokers
Today’s report starts with our weight-of-the-evidence charts, and the evidence is bullish. We project a path forward for $SPY and $QQQ, and highlight the breakouts in $RSP, $IJH and $IJR (equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps). Attention then turns to setup consolidations in Industrials ($XLI), Communication Services ($XLC) and Finance ($XLF). We also feature breakouts in the Aerospace & Defense ETF ($ITA) and Broker Dealer & Exchanges ETF ($IAI).
The Breakout Parade within Tech – Cloud, Cybersecurity and Software – What’s Next?
Technology is the leading sector with the largest gains since April and new highs throughout May. Within the sector, Semiconductors (SMH, SOXX) and AI (ARTY, AIQ) are leading the way. These two groups are not alone because the $IGV $SKYY $CIBR $ARKF
Gold Extends Correction – Copper & Uranium Miners Bounce off Support – Ag Oversold
May is proving to be a volatile month for the asset class ETFs. There were big price swings in bonds, oil, copper, and agriculture. Headlines drive short-term swings, but the bigger trends remain intact. Bonds are trending lower, oil is holding its breakout, copper remains in an uptrend and agriculture is setting up with a bullish pullback. $IEF $TLT $USL $GLD $CPER $DBB $SRUUF $COPX $URA $DBA $IBIT
Fastenal, Norfolk Southern, PACCAR, Illumina and Evergy
Today’s report features three stocks from the industrials sector: Fastenal, PACCAR and Norfolk Southern. We also cover a biotech breakout (Illumina) and a diversified utility with a bullish triangle (Evergy). $FAST $NSC $PCAR $ILMN $EVRG
Industrials Hold as Defense Sets Up – Healthcare Follows Through as Biotech Sets Up
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks as the bull market shows signs of broadening. The S&P 500 EW ETF hit a new high, while small-caps and mid-caps turned up. $IJH $IJR $RSP $XLV $IBB $XLI $ITA $SKYY
MidCap and SmallCap ETFs Get Short-term Breakouts as Breadth Sets Up Bullish
The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF (IJH) are setting up with wedge/flag breakouts and short-term breadth looks poised to break out for confirmation. $IJR $IJH $SMLA50R $MIDA50R
Breadth Deteriorates – Is this a Threat or an Opportunity?
Breadth indicators deteriorated from mid April to mid May, but this is more of an opportunity than a threat. First, SPY and S&P 500 breadth are bullish, which sets the bullish tone for the stocks. This means bullish outcomes are more likely than bearish outcomes. $SPY $RSP $SPXA50R
Gold Corrects within Uptrend – Copper Miners and Uranium ETFs Tests Support
May is proving to be a very volatile month for the asset class ETFs, but most of the trends remain in place. The Copper and Uranium Miners ETFs surged and fell back with sharp declines as both tests support. $GLD $SLV $IEF $TLT $CPER $DBB $SRUUF $COPX $URA $DBA $IBIT
Healthcare and Resources Set Up Bullish – Finance Failure – Materials and Gold Miners Break
Today’s report focuses on five ETFs. Healthcare and Natural Resources are setting up bullish. Finance failed at its 200-day. The Materials sector failed to hold its breakout as Gold Miners broke down. $XLV $XLF $XLB $GDX $IGE
Software Breakout – Microsoft Setup – Energy Resumes Lead – AeroDefense Setup
Even though we are in a bull market and the cup is half full, there are clearly risks out there. Leadership is narrow and key groups are lagging. Tech and energy are leading. $RSPD $ITB $XRT $DBA $USL $UST10Y $SPY $QQQ $XLK $SOXX $IGV $MSFT $XLE $OIH $AMLP $FCG $ITA
Breadth Shows Energy and Utilities Leading Tech – Finding Mean-Reversion Setups
Technology and Communication Services led the market since April, but they are not the strongest sectors when measuring internal strength. Energy and Utilities still stand out. $XLE $XLU $XLY
Oil Holds Breakout – Silver Leads Gold – Palladium/Uranium Set Up – Copper Surges
Bonds are trending lower and commodities highs. Oil is holding its breakout, gold and silver turned up last week and copper surged to a new high. There are setups working in Palladium ($PALL) and Uranium ($SRUUF). $IEF $TLT $USL, $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL $CPER $DBB $DBA $IBIT
Linde Breaks Out, Gilead hits Bullish Zone, Teledyne Oversold, Textron Holds Breakout
Today’s report features four stocks from strong groups: Materials, Industrials, Technology and Biotech. These include Linde plc ($LIN), Gilead Sciences ($GILD), Teledyne Technologies ($TDY) and Textron ($TXT)
Lopsided Market – Semis Hit Extreme – Industrials and Materials Hold Breakouts
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but three indicators suggest that semiconductors are extremely overbought and some key groups are lagging. Symbols: $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DBA $ITB $RSPD $XRT $XLK $SMH $XLI $XLB $ITA $IGE $XLE $FCG
High-Low Line Turns, RSP Forms Bullish Pattern, Cybersecurity and Cloud ETFs Reverse
Stocks surged in April with SPY, QQQ and the tech sector leading the way. Even though the Equal-weight S&P 500 is lagging, it remains in an uptrend with a … $CIBR $SKYY