Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
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The broader market is split, but the weight of the evidence has yet to turn bearish, which means there is a bull market somewhere. Today’s report will show the three strongest sectors based on price. Internally, healthcare is the clear leader because it has by far the most stocks in uptrends. Consumer Discretionary is the big laggard, but strength elsewhere is compensating for this weakness. $SPY $XLK $XLY $XLV $XLF $XLI $XLE $XLP $XLB
SPY and QQQ are still in long-term uptrends, but the market is having a rethink here in October. After leading for most of 2026, the Technology SPDR and QQQ are lagging in October as they fell sharply the last six days. Moreover, both fell sharpy after hitting new highs and such declines can derail an uptrend. Elsewhere, the junk end of the stock market is bearing the brunt of selling pressure with the Russell 2000 and Russell Microcap ETFs leading the way lower. Breadth Thrust setups were brewing in early October, but the actual thrust signals failed to materialize. $IJR $IJR $IWM $IWC $XLK $QQQ $QQEW $SMH $SOXX $DRAM
Today’s report will dive into the industrials sector. Frist, the Industrials SPDR is setting up as it corrected to a Bullish Setup Zone and firmed. Second, the top 11 component stocks are mixed with four sporting recent breakouts. Attention then turns to the Aerospace & Defense ETF and Clean Edge Green Energy ETF as both hit Bullish Setup Zones. $XLI $ITA $QCLN
Despite deteriorating breadth and a split market, SPY and QQQ are holding up because they are heavily weighted towards large-caps and tech. Around 51.4% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 48.6% are below and in long-term downtrends. 61.4% of Nasdaq 100 stocks
Today’s report will dive into the Healthcare sector, which is one of the best performing sectors over the last one, three and six months. The Healthcare SPDR formed a small bullish continuation pattern and broke out. Ten of the top eleven stocks are above their 200-day SMAs with AbbVie leading. We then turns to the corrective patterns in the biotech ETFs, the breakout in the Medical Devices ETF and the upturn in the Healthcare Providers ETF. $XLV $IBB $XBI $IHI $IHF
Large-caps, tech and hyper-scalers are leading the market as SPY, QQQ, the Technology SPDR, and Mag7 ETF all hit new highs in October. Small-caps and mid-caps are lagging as they fell to their rising 200-day SMAs, but show signs of short-term upturns over the past week. Last week I showed thrust indicators setting up (Zweig Breadth Thrust and %Above 50-day SMA). These have yet to trigger, but I will watch closely in the coming days/weeks. $SPY $QQQ $IJR $IJH $XLK $MAGS $AIQ $ARTY $IYZ $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $BLOK $IGV $CIBR $SKYY
The strength we are seeing here in early October started in early August when SPY, QQQ and several tech-related ETFs broke out with surges. These same ETFs corrected again in September, but held their early August breakout zones. Moreover, they broke out again in the second half of September. These breakouts keep the bigger August breakouts alive. SPY, QQQ, XLK and MAGS hit new highs in October because they are following through on prior breakouts. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $MAGS $IJR $IJH $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $VOLT $IYZ $BLOK
There was a lot of selling pressure in September as downside participation hit an extreme. Selling pressure was concentrated in the Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), Small-caps (IJR) and Mid-caps (IJH). These oversold extremes could give way to an about face and bull stampede. It hasn’t happen yet, but this possibility should be on our radar as we enter the fourth quarter. $SPY $NYA $SPXA50R $SPXADP
The broader market is split, but the weight of the evidence has yet to turn bearish, which means there is a bull market somewhere. Today’s report will show the three strongest sectors based on price. Internally, healthcare is the clear leader because it has by far the most stocks in uptrends. Consumer Discretionary is the big laggard, but strength elsewhere is compensating for this weakness. $XLK $XLC $XLY $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLE $XLV $XLP $XLU $XLRE
Healthcare related ETFs are leading the market since June. QQQ and XLK peaked in June, fell into July and recovered with gains into September. Both are still just below their June highs. In the meantime, money moved into healthcare-related ETFs with the Healthcare SPDR and Biotech ETFs gaining over 15% since June. Healthcare is the strongest sector since June and the second strongest sector since May. It is also the fourth biggest sector in the S&P 500 (9.36%). $XLV $IBB $XBI $SBIO $IHI $IHF
The broader market was hit rather hard in September as macro headwinds swirled. These headwinds, however, did not affect QQQ, the tech sector and the healthcare sector. Strength in these two sectors is propping up SPY, which is down a fraction month-to-date (-.19%). It is hard to have a bear market when SPY is above its 200-day and tech is leading. Today’s report will focus on the headwinds, key levels for the leaders and an alternative interpretation of the SMH chart. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $MAGS $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM
The stock market has become a tale of two markets. QQQ is performing well in September and SPY is flat, but several key groups were hit with strong selling pressure because of the violent moves in oil and rates. Despite a serious deterioration in breadth, SPY and QQQ remain immune because they are driven by a handful of large-cap tech-related stocks. $SPY $QQQ $SPXA200R
QQQ and Tech stocks are going it alone as high energy prices and surging Treasury yields weigh on the rest of the market. Oil is up 20% over the last four weeks and the 10-yr yield surged 50 basis points, exceeding 5%. High energy prices and high interest rates are one thing, while an accelerating rate of ascent is another. We have seen an energy and interest rate shock this month. Gold is holding up relatively well, but there are headwinds for precious metals. Copper, base metals and agriculture remain in clear uptrends, while uranium sets up with a bull flag. $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $UGA $USD $GLD $GDX $SLV $CPER $DBB $DBA $SRUUF
The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) are off to the races again with AMD and Intel (INTC) leading the charge. Today’s report focuses on semiconductor equipment stocks. These are the companies that supply the tools needed to manufacture and test semiconductors. Semiconductor Equipment stocks account for 16.6% of SOXX and 18.5% of SMH. At the end of the chart analysis, I included an AI overview of the industry group and some key stocks. $AMAT $LRCX $ASML $TER $AEHR $SMH $SOXX
There is some serious bifurcation in the stock market right now, but this has yet to affect SPY, which is heavily weighted towards the Technology sector. Tech and AI are strong since August, but Industrials, Retail and Housing are weak. This is a sort of rolling rotation where money moves out of one part and into another. Today’s report will focus on the leaders: tech, AI, MAGS, cybersecurity, software and cloud. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $XLC $MAGS $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $DRAM $SKYY $CIBR $IGV