Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
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Chartists missing a breakout can watch for a “throwback”, which offers a second chance to partake in the breakout. A throwback occurs when price breaks out, extends higher and then pulls back to the breakout zone, which turns first support. Price then turns back up and resumes its breakout. Today’s report will show a successful throwback and strong upturn in the Agribusiness ETF $MOO.
The Treasury announced a plan to increase its support for the bond market. Wednesday’s announcement put a bid in bonds, weighed on the Dollar and lifted gold. The US Dollar Index extended its breakdown as gold extended on its breakout. Elsewhere, I am seeing bullish setups in the Blockchain Tech ETF and the Physical Uranium ETF. $IEF $UST10Y $USD $GLD $BLOK $URA
There is broad strength within the Healthcare sector because over 80% of its stocks are in long-term uptrends. This is also true for Energy and Finance. The Healthcare SPDR and Biotech ETF confirm strength with both hitting new highs this week. Within these groups, I see a flag breakout in Eli Lilly and a steady uptrend in Biogen. $XLV $IBB $LLY $BIIB
Breadth continues to improve with more than 70% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. This number is even higher for the S&P 1500 (75%), which means small-caps and mid-caps are stronger than large-caps. Nasdaq 100 breadth is not as strong, but
The stock market remains in bull mode, but traders should be prepared for the possibility of a correction or pullback. It has been 91 days since the last 5% drawdown and seasonal headwinds are around the corner. SPY, QQQ, XLK and the AI ETFs broke out with surges in early August. It is important that these breakouts hold. Today’s report will set the key levels to watch. $SPY $QQQ $RSP $XLK $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $AIQ $ARTY $DTCR $IDGT $UFOX $IYZ
Stocks within the Technology sector and the Nasdaq 100 are coming to life as ETFs related to these two break out and breadth improves. The percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 200-day SMA hit its highest level of the year and the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 surged to a 52-week high. $XLK $QQQ $QQEW $NDXA200R
Today’s report starts off with the bond ETFs because bonds are in long-term downtrends and interest rates are in long-term uptrends. These trends have yet to affect the stock market, but certain groups could face headwinds. Attention then turns to the breakouts in gold and gold miners, and then the setups agriculture and agribusiness. $TLT $IEF $UST10Y $UST20Y $GLD $GDX $DBA $MOO
The Technology SPDR accounts for 37.5% of the S&P 500, which makes it the biggest sector in the S&P 500, by far. Finance is a distant second at 12.3%. Semiconductors account for around 45% of the Technology sector, which suggests that semiconductors account for around 16% of the S&P 500, more than the Finance sector. Semiconductors are a major force in the market-cap weighed universe. With that in mind, today’s report will focus on semiconductors, memory and AI. $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $EWY $MU $SNDK $STX $AIQ $ARTY $DTCR $IDGT $UFOX $IYZ
Today’s report starts with the broad market ETFs and then dives into energy. Oil surged the last three days and could be forming a bullish triangle. Energy ETFs are leading as the Energy SPDR broke out on a long and short term basis. Analysis extends into ETFs related to oil services, exploration & production, natural gas and MLPs. $SPY $RSP $QQQ $XLK $USL $XLE $OIH $XOP $FCG $AMLP
The Gold SPDR turned boring in July as price action contracted and the Bollinger Bands narrowed. As in August 2025, falling asleep is not an option because boring periods often give way to excitement. Gold is following the August 2025 script with a squeeze play and strong breakout this week. $GLD
Gold dynamics could be changing as bullion caught a strong bid and broke its July highs. The Dollar failed to hold its June breakout as it fell below its mid July lows, while oil formed a lower high to go with its lower low. Copper and Base Metals remain strong and Copper Miners played catchup with a strong breakout move. $GLD $USL $USD $UST2Y $DBB $CPER $COPX
The stock market continues to click on all cylinders with ETFs related to small-caps, mid-caps and equal-weight hitting new highs. QQQ and XLK are not far behind after big breakout moves the last four days. Today’s report focuses on the biotech ETFs as they forge short-term setups after new highs. With biotech, Gilead recaptured its 200-day SMA and Vertex is firming in a Bullish Setup Zone. $IBB $XBI $GILD $VRTX
Large-caps led the market over the last three days with SPY breaking triangle resistance. QQQ also surged, but remains just short of a breakout. Today’s report focus on the Technology SPDR and the ETFs in the AI stack. These include semiconductors, broad AI, data center REITs and connectivity. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $IDGT $DTCR $IYZ $UFOX
Even though the momentum trade took a hit in July, broad market breadth continued to improve and the weight of the evidence remains bullish. The vast majority of stocks are in long-term uptrends, new highs are expanding and SPY is consolidating within an uptrend. There is clearly a bull market somewhere. $SPY $SPXA200R $SPXHLP
The Gold SPDR faces strong headwinds with a strong Dollar and rising short-term rates, but I am seeing a potentially bullish setup on the price chart as GLD firms near a key retracement. Copper and Base Metals are up year-to-date and forming bullish patterns, while the Copper Miners ETF is firming in a Bullish Setup Zone. $GLD $CPER $DBB $COPX