Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
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The Mag7 ETF (MAGS) is leading the market since late July with a 15% gain, a triangle breakout and a new high in late September. Six of the seven stocks are above their rising 200-day SMAs with two testing this key level (Alphabet and Amazon). Tesla is the only one in a clear downtrend. Even though Alphabet and Amazon are lagging, both are setting up bullish as they correct within their uptrends. This report also covers Microsoft and Amphenol, a connectivity stock. $AMZN $GOOLG $MSFT $APH
Healthcare related ETFs are leading the market since June. QQQ and XLK peaked in June, fell into July and recovered with gains into September. Both are still just below their June highs. In the meantime, money moved into healthcare-related ETFs with the Healthcare SPDR and Biotech ETFs gaining over 15% since June. Healthcare is the strongest sector since June and the second strongest sector since May. It is also the fourth biggest sector in the S&P 500 (9.36%). $XLV $IBB $XBI $SBIO $IHI $IHF
SPY and QQQ are holding up well, but the S&P 500 EW ETF took a hit and breadth continued to deteriorate. SPY remains well above its rising 200-day SMA and within 2% of a 52-wk high. RSP, in contrast, fell around 4.5% in September and is within 2% of its 200-day SMA. Both are still in uptrends with RSP at a moment of truth. Breadth continued its deterioration with SPX %Above 200-day SMA falling to
The broader market was hit rather hard in September as macro headwinds swirled. These headwinds, however, did not affect QQQ, the tech sector and the healthcare sector. Strength in these two sectors is propping up SPY, which is down a fraction month-to-date (-.19%). It is hard to have a bear market when SPY is above its 200-day and tech is leading. Today’s report will focus on the headwinds, key levels for the leaders and an alternative interpretation of the SMH chart. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $MAGS $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM
The stock market has become a tale of two markets. QQQ is performing well in September and SPY is flat, but several key groups were hit with strong selling pressure because of the violent moves in oil and rates. Despite a serious deterioration in breadth, SPY and QQQ remain immune because they are driven by a handful of large-cap tech-related stocks. $SPY $QQQ $SPXA200R
QQQ and Tech stocks are going it alone as high energy prices and surging Treasury yields weigh on the rest of the market. Oil is up 20% over the last four weeks and the 10-yr yield surged 50 basis points, exceeding 5%. High energy prices and high interest rates are one thing, while an accelerating rate of ascent is another. We have seen an energy and interest rate shock this month. Gold is holding up relatively well, but there are headwinds for precious metals. Copper, base metals and agriculture remain in clear uptrends, while uranium sets up with a bull flag. $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $UGA $USD $GLD $GDX $SLV $CPER $DBB $DBA $SRUUF
The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) are off to the races again with AMD and Intel (INTC) leading the charge. Today’s report focuses on semiconductor equipment stocks. These are the companies that supply the tools needed to manufacture and test semiconductors. Semiconductor Equipment stocks account for 16.6% of SOXX and 18.5% of SMH. At the end of the chart analysis, I included an AI overview of the industry group and some key stocks. $AMAT $LRCX $ASML $TER $AEHR $SMH $SOXX
There is some serious bifurcation in the stock market right now, but this has yet to affect SPY, which is heavily weighted towards the Technology sector. Tech and AI are strong since August, but Industrials, Retail and Housing are weak. This is a sort of rolling rotation where money moves out of one part and into another. Today’s report will focus on the leaders: tech, AI, MAGS, cybersecurity, software and cloud. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $XLC $MAGS $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $DRAM $SKYY $CIBR $IGV
The Mag7 ETF struggled in June-July, but got its mojo back in August with a breakout. Not only did the ETF break out, but it followed through on this breakout with a strong September. MAGS is even starting to outperform. $MAGS
Performance within the Mag7 ETF is mixed with two clear leaders, two clear laggards and a downtrend. Apple and Nvidia have the strongest uptrends. Alphabet is consolidating within an uptrend and trying to turn up. Amazon is in a choppy uptrend with a tradable pullback underway. Meta and Microsoft are all over the place with volatile swings the last few months. Telsa is the basket case of the group with a long-term downtrend and bearish setup. $AAPL $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $META $MSFT $TSLA
Commodities, stocks and the Dollar are higher since March, while gold and bonds are lower. I picked March because this is when the war with Iran broke out and oil surged. The 12-month Oil Fund (USL) is up some 47% since March. Other commodity groups are also higher (base metals, copper and agriculture). $GLD $GDX $SLV $UST2Y $SPY $IWM $RSP $CPER $DBB $USL $SRUUF $BLOK
Today’s report focuses on two stocks from the Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF) and two from the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA). IHF is leading the market as it consolidates near its highs. HCA Corp and Universal Health Services show signs of bottoming over the last few months. Aerospace & Defense was leading the market in August, but took a hard hit over the last four weeks. Lockheed Martin and RTX Corp pulled back within the group and became oversold within their uptrends. $LMT $RTX $HCA $UHS
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but oil, interest rates and inflation are taking their toll on parts of the market. Small-caps are bearing the brunt of recent selling pressure with large-caps and large-cap techs holding up better since August. Semis are at a moment of truth, while the AI/Tech ETFs are holding their breakouts. Elsewhere, I am seeing bullish setups in Regional Banks, Telecom, Healthcare Providers and Medical Devices. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $IWM $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $IHI $IHF $KRE
SPY is within 3% of a 52-week high, but small-caps took a hit and new lows are expanding. This expansion, however, has yet to derail a bullish signal from May 2025. Today’s report will review this bullish signal and show the key levels to watch. We will also set bear market thresholds for SPY and new lows. $SPY !NEWHISPX !NEWLOSPX $SPXHLP
The intermarket picture is negative for the average stock (equal-weights, small-caps and mid-caps). Rates are rising and this rise is accelerating. Rising oil prices are stoking inflation. Value and energy are leading within the stock market, while consumer discretionary and industrials move lower. Tech and semis are holding up well since August, and keeping SPY/QQQ afloat. Today’s report also covers gold, copper, uranium and blockchain. $IEF $UST2Y, $UST10Y, $XLY $GLD $CPER $SRUUF $BLOK