Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
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Even though technology is the biggest sector in the S&P 500, there is more to the market than technology, much more. Tech is under pressure, but the weight of the evidence shows that we are still in a bull market. SPY is above its 200-day SMA, as are eight of the eleven sectors. In addition, the vast majority of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and new highs expanded in November.
During periods of volatility, it often helps to zoom out for more perspective. The chart below shows QQQ over the last two years. The pink shadings (four) show when QQQ fell more than 5% from a 52-week high, within a short period of time (1-4 weeks). Such sudden and sharp declines from a 52-week high can foreshadow an extended correction or break of the 200-day SMA. $QQQ $XLK $IWO $IWM $JNK $KBWB $SBIO $XBI
The breadth models remain on bullish signals since summer 2025 and the major index ETFs have been in uptrends since early April. In the absence of bearish signals, this means the weight of the evidence is still bullish for stocks. Breadth indicators were hit hard in September, but improved in October as the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs moved from 42% to 60%. New lows expanded in September, but new highs expanded in October as High-Low Percent returned to positive territory.
Despite breakdowns in tech related ETFs and widening yield spreads, the broad market environment remains bullish. SPY is above its 200-day SMA, some 65% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and SPX High-Low Percent exceeded +10% twice last week. There is clearly a bull market somewhere. Today’s report will focus on four ETFs that are setting up within long-term uptrends. We finished with an indicator to watch for clues on semiconductor stocks. $MAGS $CIBR $MOO $XLE $SMH !GT200SMA
Today’s report focuses on what is working in October and November. QQQ and the Technology SPDR are not working because they broke down in October. SPY is still in a long-term uptrend, but caught in the middle as a tug-o-war rages in the large-cap universe. The S&P 500 EW ETF is leading because it hit a new high in early November. I am also seeing resilience in small-caps and mid-caps, which are covered in detail. This report finishes with Industrials and Aerospace-Defense because they firmed in Bullish Setup Zones. $RSP $IJH $IJR $IWM $XLI $ITA
The small and mid cap ETFs are at inflection points as they battle to hold their long-term uptrends. This group lagged in September, held up in October and turned volatile in November. Will weakness in semis and large-cap tech drag them down? Today’s report will show the key levels to watch for a breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), and spotlight a teetering trend-following indicator. $IWM $IJH $IJR
The markets moved into overdrive on Wednesday with the S&P 500 EW ETF hitting to new highs and some beaten-down groups surging. The Technology SPDR was not part of this group as it closed down a fraction. Gold Miners, Home Construction, Medical Devices and Solar Energy surged over 5%. Meanwhile, Oil, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services, Memory and AI Power Infrastructure fell over 5%. The bet here is for reduced tensions in the Middle East, a slower data center build-out, lower inflation, lower interest rates, and more focus on healthcare and clean energy. $XLE $USL $RSP $UST2Y $UST10Y $MAGS $SMH
The market is split. What else is new? Technology, Communication Services, Mag7 and the Nasdaq 100 stocks were leading the market into early October. This changed with outsized declines in mid October and the rotation out of these groups continued into November 2nd. Money did not leave the stock market as it rotated into small-caps, mid-caps and the other nine sectors. We do not have a bear market on our hands, but the rotations within the market are very pronounced. $SPY $QQQ $RSP $IJR $IJH $QQEW $SUPA50R $MIDA50R $SKYY $IGV $CIBR
Today’s report highlights bullish setups in the Russell 2000 ETF, Industrials SPDR and Amazon. All three are correcting within uptrends and should be watched for breakouts. Small-caps are showing relative strength since October, breadth is bullish for the industrials sector and Amazon recovered after its earnings-related gap. $IWM $XLI $AMZN
Wicked rotations are underway within the stock market. Tech led in September, but turned laggard in October as QQQ experienced an outsized decline, which can derail an uptrend. Healthcare lagged in September, but turned leader in October. Overall, Healthcare and Energy are the strongest sectors. Within Healthcare, the Biotech ETF is taking the lead with an October breakout. $QQQ $XLK $XLV $XLE $IBB
The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 Equal-Weight define the rotations within the market in September and October. Currently, the S&P 500 EW ETF is leading, but this ETF is hitting a moment of truth (key retracement). AI and semiconductor ETFs bounced this week, but these look like oversold bounces after breakdowns. Elsewhere, money continues to move into healthcare with recent breakouts in the two biotech ETFs. $QQQ $RSP $XLF $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $IBB $XBI
Today’s report focuses on four ETFs that are setting up near Bullish Setup Zones. When correcting after a big advance or when forming a bullish continuation pattern, these are zones to watch for firming and a reversal. The firming means buying and selling pressure moved into equilibrium and this sets the stage for a potential reversal and breakout. This report shows the breakout levels to watch and re-evaluation level to consider should we see breakouts. $ITA $OIH $XES $MOO
Today’s report will focus on the broader market because the ingredients are in place for some choppy trading and a rally into yearend. Trading could be choppy because the Fed meets today and tomorrow, earnings season is in full swing and the US elections are next week. I am sure that there are a dozen other reasons (yields spreads, seasonal patterns, rates, oil etc…). $SPY $QQQ $XLK $IJH $IJR $SUPA50R $UST2Y $USL $SPXA200R
The S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF was hit hard September, but the long-term uptrend remains intact as the ETF hits a make or break zone this month. Breadth also took a hit as it became oversold for the first time since March. This oversold condition could lead to a thrust signal as mid-cap breadth improved in October. Today’s report will detail the breadth setup and define the make or break zone for IJH. $IJH $MIDA50R
The Energy SPDR is the runaway year-to-date sector leader with the Technology SPDR at distant second. The energy sector sets the stage for the industry group ETFs within the sector. If the sector is bullish, then we want to look at industry groups and stocks within this sector for bullish setups. $XLE $XOP $CRAK $OIH $XES $AMLP $MLPX