The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish with the bounce in stocks over the last five days. Even so, the market remains quite divided right now. Large-caps are still leading, small-caps are still lagging and mid-caps remain caught in the middle. The divide is visible within some sectors as well.
The Networking ETF (IGN) is leading the market with a solid uptrend and a new high this week. Diving into the group, I found a stock that recently broke out and formed a
The stock market is about as divided as can be. It is clear that this is no longer a bull market that lifts all boats. Should we get a bear market, it may not be one that sinks most boats. The Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, but could go either way as the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above the 200-day SMA gyrates around
This commentary will cover bonds, gold, silver and the Dollar. Oil was covered in the ETF Report on Wednesday. TLT and the 10-yr Yield have big continuation patterns working, but the swings within these patterns are going the other way. Gold is going for a breakout as silver surges off support. The Dollar became overbought after a big advance and stalled the last few weeks.
While there are too many influences to list in one post, this commentary features a dozen books that helped me over the years. These books cover technical analysis, trend-momentum strategies, insights from great traders and the mindset required to stay in the game.
Even though the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, the stock market seems to be more split than anything. This means we could see some sort of rotation instead of a broad bear market. In fact, we are already seeing some signs in December and there are splits within sectors. In Consumer Discretionary
Stocks fell sharply the last three days with QQQ and SPY leading the way as they fell 4.12% and 3.32%, respectively. Small-caps held up better as IWM fell just 1.4%. Nevertheless, IWM is trading near its summer lows and the weakest of the three over the past month and since March.
Risk aversion is spreading in the stock market. High-beta ETFs bore the brunt of selling pressure over the last several weeks and QQQ is starting to show some signs of buckling. On the flipside, money is moving into defensive groups with Utilities, Staples, Healthcare and REITs hitting new highs.
The Fed has come and gone without much of a surprise, and the markets are saying good riddance. The market appears to be relieved that the statement is out of the way and the news flow will hopefully lessen. Volatility picked up significantly with the plunge on Back Friday
There could be a change afoot in the stock market over the past month (21 trading days) as money moves out of the riskier parts and into the more defensive areas. The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish overall and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Even though
Introducing two chart lists: a Master ETF list with over 200 ETFs and a focused All Weather list with 50 ETFs. Chartists looking for a wide array of industry group, commodity and international ETFs can turn to the Master list. Chartists looking for focus
Stocks started their rebound with 1-day breadth thrusts on December 2nd and continued higher this week. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead overall, while small-caps and next gen Nasdaq 100 stocks are lagging. After a big move last Tuesday, many of the high beta and momentum names fell back on Thursday and Friday. This pop and drop sets
Even though junk bonds bounced and the most oversold ETFs surged this week, the high beta end of the stock market continues to look shaky and this reflects risk aversion. Today’s commentary will look at relative weakness in Advance-Decline Percent for QQQ and
Stocks went from the edge of the abyss last week to a renewed bull market this week. Well, perhaps not so fast there cowboy. The price action over the last few days is certainly bullish because SPY broke out with a three day move accompanied by
The market went through the wringer the last two weeks and the bulls appear to have survived. Today’s analysis looks at the oversold setup and the strength behind the recent bounce. Even though the Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish, there are still reasons for concern and we will cover these.
Signs of risk aversion are increasing in the financial markets. Risk aversion first appeared in the junk bond market in October and this week we are seeing money move into Treasury bonds, the ultimate safe havens.
Mid-caps, small-caps and high-beta stocks are weighing on the broader market, but SPY, QQQ and some large-caps are holding up. We are also seeing a shift away from risk in the bond market as the Junk Bond ETF (JNK) hit a 52-week low
Weakness in mid-caps and small-caps is finally taking its toll on the broader market and the Composite Breadth Model. We are also seeing S&P 500 breadth indicators deteriorate and dip towards bearish levels. Even though
Stocks were hit with a double whammy the last three trading days: the Omicron plunge on Black Friday and the Powell plunge on Tuesday. These, at least, seem to be the reasons given in the financial media. SPY fell 2.2% on Friday, rebounded somewhat on Monday and then fell 2% on Tuesday
I used to have a Friday night poker group and this was the motto when someone needed to call a big bet. Go big or fold. For the stock market, large-caps are the name of the game and technology is still the best performing sector
Big and sudden declines create short-term oversold conditions ripe for a short bounce, but they also distort chart patterns with their volatility. These outsized moves make chart analysis difficult and the volatility increases risk overall. Note that these moves occurred on a pseudo holiday and could be over-reactions