Gold Forms Classic Pattern – Gold Miners Lead – Base Metals Maintain Upswing

This report looks at several indicators that point to a correction. Leadership in 2025 was narrow because new highs did not expand to previous levels. We saw the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMA increase the last few months, but these indicators were hit hard in early August. A large percentage of stocks are below their 200-day SMAs, and in long-term

The risk profile changed in the market over the last two weeks. Tech ETFs led the market into the July highs, but we are seeing leadership emerge in some defensive areas the last two weeks. Namely, the MLP, Utilities and Bond ETFs are breaking out. XLU is leading the pack with a surge to new highs. Lower Treasury yields are proving a lift for the

As noted in reports last week, conditions are ripe for a correction in the stock market and tech-related ETFs are seriously extended. We cannot predict the length, duration or path for a correction, but we can identify periods when the odds favor a correction and trade accordingly. This means taking some money off the table and/or waiting patiently for a robust setup.

Volatility is on the rise the last three months with huge moves in AI related stocks, metals and crypto. Volatility is great when you are on the right side, but keep in mind that volatility goes both ways. Steep rises often give way to volatile consolidations or corrections. Volatility also skews the charts and makes

Concerns are brewing as the VIX compresses, seasonal patterns turn and a sentiment indicator gets close to triggering bearish. At the very least, these indicators argue for extra vigilance because conditions are ripe for a correction or pullback. First, the VIX

In addition to the tech ETFs, I am seeing leadership in a handful of non-tech ETFs. These include Blockchain, Telecom, Banking, Defense and Infrastructure. The MLP ETF is not a leader because the price-relative is declining, but it sports a breakout on the price chart and recaptured the 200-day SMA. Elsewhere, the Gold SPDR and Bitcoin ETF remain in leading uptrends.

Tech-related ETFs are leading the market with massive moves the last three months. They are in strong uptrends, but getting overextended and ripe for a corrective period. For example, the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) are up around 50% since May. Straight up. Today’s video will highlight the overbought conditions and show the support zones to watch going forward.

SPY and QQQ are in leading uptrends with fresh new highs in late July. The first chart shows SPY with the big trend-reversing breakout on May 12th. This is when it broke the late March high, negated the Double Top and gapped above the 200-day SMA. SPY extended to new

Stocks started their bull run with a Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th and SPY triggered a 5/200 one percent cross on May 15th. Long-term breadth indicators were lagging in May, but started catching up in June with the Nasdaq 100 turning net bullish on June 10th. QQQ and Nasdaq 100 stocks led the surge off the April lows and continue to lead. The

The Fed will make its policy statement on Wednesday afternoon and this could cause some volatility in inter-market related assets. These include stocks, bonds, gold, the Dollar and Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is a new addition to the intermarket arena. Today’s report will cover the 7-10Yr TBond ETF (IEF), which is breaking out ahead of the Fed announcement. We are also seeing high-yield ETFs move

Today’s report will take a step back and analyze the historic surge off the April low. History suggests that this powerful move is long-term bullish. We will then look at the V reversal off the March 2020 low and see what worked as the bull market extended. In particular, we will show the short-term bullish patterns and oversold conditions that offered opportunities.

ETFs related to tech and industrials are leading the equity side of the market, but there are still plenty of alternative ETFs leading. Alternative ETFs are those related to bonds, commodities and crypto (non equity). Even though the Gold Miners, Silver Miners and Metals & Mining ETFs are based on common stocks, the underlying companies are involved with commodities and benefiting from the bull market

Breadth continues to improve as the weight of the evidence turned bullish for the S&P 500. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks continue to lead, but S&P 1500 stocks are lagging because of small and mid caps. Nevertheless, IJH and IJR have breakouts working. Tech-related ETFs are in leading uptrends and looking extended after big moves.

S&P 500 breadth improved and turned majority bullish this week. This means the evidence for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is majority bullish. The evidence for the S&P 1500, which includes mid and small caps, remains majority bearish. However, S&P 1500 breadth continues to improve as the stock market advance broadens. Even though small and mid caps are dragging their feet

This report will focus on seasonal patterns and sentiment, but with a caveat. Seasonal patterns and sentiment are not the best market timing tools because they can reach extremes and remain at extremes. This is why we need to combine seasonality and sentiment with breadth and price action. We are entering a seasonally

Large-cap and large-cap techs continue to lead the market with small-caps and mid-caps lagging. SPY and QQQ hit new highs on Monday, but 279 stocks within the S&P 500 are more than 10% below their 52-week highs. 137 stocks are more than 20% below their 52-week highs. SPY and QQQ are not lifting all boats. 64 stocks are even below their April lows (closing lows), including Berkshire. These groups are doing the heaving lifting

Even though some equity groups are performing well year-to-date, commodity and crypto related ETFs feature prominently on the leaderboard. The pink shading on the image below highlights these leaders. The top five ETFs are related to platinum, gold, silver, uranium and blockchain. Further down, we have ETFs related to copper, palladium, mining and BitCoin. SPY and QQQ may be trading at new highs, but they are not