Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The bullish signals stacked up in April and May, but most long-term breadth indicators are still bearish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY and QQQ break
Moving from Thrust Signals to a Bull Market Read More »
PGM stands for the platinum group of metals, which includes ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium and platinum. These metals have similar properties and are usually found together when mining. Palladium is a key metal for catalytic converters, and is also used in electronics and dental alloys. Platinum is mostly used for jewelry, and also for catalytic converters.
Two PGM’s Get Breakouts Read More »
Stocks were hit as SPY fell 1.69%, its largest 1-day decline since April 21st, which was just before the Zweig Breadth Thrust. We do not need to look far for the reasons. First, stocks were short-term overbought after the surge from April 22nd to May 20th. SPY was up over 16% in 20 days. Second, the 30-yr Treasury Yield surged above 5% and hit a new high
Market-ETF Report – Stocks Fall – Gold, Silver, IBIT & Yields Surge – Trailing Stops Read More »
Stocks started improving with the Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th and continued with a bullish 5/200 cross. Despite a strong advance, breadth has yet to expand to levels that signal a bull market. SPY and QQQ are holding their gaps and 200-day SMAs, but short-term overbought after big moves. We will show the key levels to watch. Elsewhere, year-to-date performance highlights the true leaders and metals are perking up.
It seems as if there are conflicting signals in the stock market. The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered bullish on April 24th and the 5/200 Filter Cross triggered bullish on May 15th, but the long-term trend and breadth indicators remain decidedly bearish. NDX %Above 200-day SMA ($NDXA200R) is the only indicator (of 15) to trigger bullish.
Market Regime – Zweig and 5/200 Cross Bullish, but Long-term Breadth net Bearish Read More »
The bullish evidence continues to build, but the long-term breadth indicators have yet to turn net bullish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY, QQQ and RSP break their 200-day SMAs. These are bullish indications for large-caps and, perhaps
Market-ETF Report – Large-caps Lead – New Highs in XLI and ITA – Utes Extend on Breakout Read More »
SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. In addition, the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA to reverse the bearish trend signal from mid March. The V-Reversal since late March was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but the 5/200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal
Improve Performance with Smoothing, Filters and a Twist – 200-day Cross for SPY/QQQ Read More »
SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are
SPY Recaptures 200-day – Tips to Reduce Whipsaws and Improve Performance Read More »
SPY and QQQ hit their moment of truth in early May – and then powered through their March support breaks with gap-surges on Monday. These were the moves that reversed the long-term downtrends. Even though the long-term breadth indicators have yet to signal a bull market, SPY and QQQ are in uptrends, as our four big sectors. This is clearly positive for stocks, and
Market-ETF Report – Mind the Gap-Surge – Year-to-date Leaders – Four Big Sectors Lead Read More »
Stocks extended after the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals in late April with SPY and QQQ negating their March support breaks. Tech-related ETFs made sharp U-turns with leading moves over the last five weeks. Despite impressive gains, these ETFs are short-term overbought. Elsewhere, gold and silver are consolidating after big gains, IBIT extended on its breakout and ITA hit a new high.
Stocks plunged in historic fashion with long-term breadth indicators reaching extremes in early April. Stocks then surged in historic fashion with a Zweig Breadth Thrust and steep advance. The plunge is like stretching a rubber band and the rebound is the effect of letting go. The further the stretch, the bigger the snap back.
Market Regime – NDX Breadth Leads Bounce – Spreads Narrow – 10yr Yield Holds Breakout Read More »
The thrust continued on Monday with SPY surging 3.3% and the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above their 50-day SMA hitting its highest level since December 2nd. The chart below shows an update for the S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust strategy. A bullish thrust triggered on April 24th and SPY extended above
Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. There are two parts to the V reversal. First, there is the V, which is the plunge and the rebound. Second, there is the breakout move that completes the reversal. SPY fulfilled the V part, but
What will Make or Break this V Reversal? Read More »
This sample is taken from an actual report coving broad market conditions, SPY/QQQ charts and leading ETFs Click here to
Market-ETF Report – Long-term Down + Short-term Overbought = Not Ideal Read More »
Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. With the recent gains, SPY is back near the 200-day SMA and 61.8% retracement, which puts this key benchmark at an “interesting” juncture. Interesting? Yes. Bull market? No. What does it take to go from an interesting juncture to a bull market?
V Reversals – Capitulation – The V – Interesting Levels vs Bull Markets – Relative Risk Read More »
SPY and QQQ are in a short-term uptrend that include a Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th. Even though the long-term trends and breadth indicators remain bearish, this short-term uptrend remains in play as long as the wedges rise in SPY and QQQ. As noted in these first charts, I am looking for confirmation from S&P 1500 Percent Above 50-day SMA ($SUPA50R) as the
The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look like counter-trend bounces. Stocks are also short-term overbought. Strategically, the long-term downtrends and bear market are negative. Tactically, upside could be limited as resistance levels come into play and short-term conditions become overbought.
Market/ETF Video – Long-term Breadth vs Thrusts – Wedges and Overbought in Downtrends Read More »
This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators
Market Regime – Bear Market Bounce – Spreads Narrow – TLT Holds Breakout Read More »
The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look
Market-ETF Report – Long-term Down + Short-term Overbought = Not Ideal Read More »
The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets end with a bottoming process that often goes in stages. First, there is the capitulation phase, which suggests that selling pressure reached extremes and a bottom may be close. There was a capitulation setup in early April. Second, short-term thrust indicators mark a sharp recovery after an
Bottoming Process – Capitulation, Short and Medium Term Thrusts, Regime Change Read More »
