Education for Systematic Strategies and Technical Analysis
It is usually best to ignore the headlines and focus on price action. Oil fell some 5%, but remains in the upper 90s. Perhaps more telling, August 2026 Oil Futures are … $AMGN, $HON, $KALU $TXN
A Biotech, an Industrial, an Aluminum Player and a Semiconductor Read More »
The stock market continues to show similarities with March 2025. SPY broke its 200-day, 50+ percent of stocks are in downtrends and yield spreads widened. Symbols covered: $SPY $QQQ $STIP, $WTIC, $XLV, $XLU, $IFRA, $SMH
The macro environment continues to deteriorate as oil prices remain elevated, interest rates are rising and SPY breaks its 200-day SMA. Today’s report compares the oil and interest rate shocks in 2022 with the current environment.
SPY/QQQ Break – High-Low Line Flattens – Lessons from the Oil/Rate Shock of 2022 Read More »
March is turning into one ugly month with 16 of the 20 asset class ETFs moving lower. Surging oil prices, rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and geopolitics are … $DBA, $CANE, $WEAT, $CORN, $GLD, $GDX, $IEF, $TLT, $CPER, $DBB, $SRUUF, $IBIT
Oil, Bitcoin and Ag Lead, Macro Headwinds hit Metals – Bonds No Safe-haven Read More »
Stocks are in a funk. A bear market has yet to signal, but the cup is half empty as breadth deteriorated, yield spreads widened and yields surged. It is a tough environment right now. Today’s report features $BWA, $APD, GE, $LMT, $NOC.
EV Supplier Breaks Out – Uptrend in Specialty Chemical – 3 Oversold Defense Stocks Read More »
Despite a flurry of headlines before the open on Monday, the macro situation remains unchanged. Interest rates are trending higher, oil is trading 40% … Symbols: $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $XLK, $OIH, $CIBR, $UFO, $AIQ, $ARTY, $SMH, $ITA, $PBW
SPY Breaks 200-day – XLK and XLC Signal Downtrends – Setups in Defense and Space Read More »
SPY is at a moment of truth as breadth deteriorates and stress increases in the credit markets. SPY, QQQ and IWM remain in long-term uptrends, but
SPY Hits Key Moment as Breadth Signal Triggers – Yield Spreads Channel March 2025 Read More »
Month-to-date performance is ugly for our 20 asset class ETFs. Oil, the energy-heavy DB Commodity ETF, Bitcoin and Agriculture are the only winners this month. … $IEF, $TLT, $STIP, $GLD, $SLV, $DBA, $CPER, $DBB, $SRUUF, $IBIT
Oil and Agriculture Lead – Copper and Inflation-Protected Bonds Send a Message Read More »
Today’s report features a Mag7 stock that is holding strong after a pullback. We also feature a power management stock, a drone maker and a biotech. Symbols: $GOOGL, $KTOS, $ETN, $BIIB
A Mag7 Stock Holding Strong, an Industrial Breakout, a Defense Trade and a Biotech Read More »
Despite some macro headwinds and a war with Iran, the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Stocks fell sharply in March, however … Symbols: $WTIC, $UST10Y, $SPY, $QQQ, $XLK, $AIQ, $ARTY, $XLC, $XLB, $ITA, $ARKX
SPY Tests 200-day – Tech ETFs Hold Up Well – Defense and Materials Become Oversold Read More »
The markets were thrown for a loop in March as geopolitical tensions surged and the macro situation deteriorated. Energy prices shot up and interest rates rose as inflationary pressures increased. Despite these events … Symbols $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DBB
Large-caps Hold Up Better than Smalls – Trend Signals for SPY – A Setup in Based Metals Read More »
Among our asset class ETFs, Energy, Bitcoin, Base Metals, Agriculture and QQQ are the only gainers this month, which is since the war with Iran began. Precious Metals, Bonds, Small-caps and Miners are down … $IEF, $GLD, $SLV, $GDX, $SIL, $CPER, $DBB, $SRUUF, $URA, $COPX, $XME, $IBIT
Few Places to Hide – Bond Breakout Fails as Rates Surge – Gold Sets Up Bullish Read More »
There are only two stock setups today, and both are from the Healthcare sector, a leading defensive sector. Until the macro picture clears, my preference is for defensive groups, smaller positions and less exposure. Symbols: $PFE $HCA
Oil Markets Remain on Edge – Two Healthcare Stocks with Leading Uptrends Read More »
Just like March 2025, volatility is rearing its ugly head. Oil surged above its 2025 highs, bonds are not offering safe haven and small-caps were crushed. Large-cap techs, however…Symbols: $SPY, $QQQ, $XLK, $AIQ, $ARTY, $SMH, $SOXX, $XLV, $IBB, $TAN, $ICLN
Tech ETFs Hit Moment of Truth – Oversold Healthcare, Biotech and Clean Energy Read More »
The markets turned volatile this week as stocks, bonds and gold fell. Oil and the Dollar surged. Bonds did not offer their usual safe-haven, but money moved into agriculture. It is not clear if this was a safe-haven move, but agriculture
Trend Signals in Agriculture – Wheat and Soybeans Turn Up – A Tribute to John Murphy Read More »
The TBond ETF is testing its breakout zone. Gold and Copper Miners ETFs formed triangles after new highs. Oil futures are in backwardation. Symbols: $IEF, $GLD, $SLV, $GDX, $SIL, $CPER, $DBB, $SRUUF, $URA, $COPX, $XME, $WTIC, $USO, $USL, $IBIT
Bond ETF Tests Breakout Zone – Gold and Copper Miners Triangulate – Oil Backwardation Read More »
Today’s report features stocks from groups that have been leading since the broadening began in late November. These include an aluminum leader, a defense trade, a big pharmaceutical and a DIY leader. Symbols: $AA $CAE $ABBV $LOW
Stock Setups in Metals & Mining, Healthcare, Aerospace & Defense and Housing Read More »
The market profile was defensive before the war, and remains defensive. Healthcare, Staples, Utilities, Defense and Infrastructure are in, while Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Finance are out $SPY, $QQQ, $IEF, $WTIC, $UUP, $MAGS, $AIQ, $XLK, $KBWB, $ITB, XHB
Headline Risk Rises Again – Defensive Market – Bearish Patterns in Tech Read More »
Mag 7 stocks powered the market higher from April to October, but sputtered since November with three breaking down. Four are still in long-term uptrends. Today’s report starts with the laggards and then turn to Apple. $MSFT, $AMZN, $META, $AAPL
Mag 7 Leaders/Laggards – 3 Trend Reversals – Analysis and Key Levels for Apple Read More »
Mag 7 stocks account for 33% of SPY and 41% of QQQ. The trouble starts when/if these leaders break down. Three broke down, but four of the seven are holding up. This report covers $GOOGL, $NVDA and $TSLA.
Technical Outlook for Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla – Trends, Supports and Oversold Signals Read More »
