Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis

Breadth Thrust for Utilities – Ameren Surges off Support – Centerpoint Breaks Out

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Breakouts in Tech, Semis, AI, Industrials & Defense – Biotechs Setting Up

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The weight of the evidence has been bullish since the early April surge. Despite disruptions in the Middle East, high oil prices and rising interest rates, stocks stayed bullish throughout April-May and remain bullish here in June. Clearly, the stock market is looking past current events, as it always does. $XLK $SMH $SOXX $AIQ $DCTR $XLI $ITA $XLB $IFRA $IBB $XBI

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Small-caps Lead – Breadth Improves as SPY Pulls Back – Industrials SPDR Sets Up

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SPY pulled back in early June, but remains in bull market mode with improving breadth. The bull market is broadening with more stocks moving above their 200-day SMAs. This is especially true for small-caps, which were leading in March and continue to lead in June. Within the S&P 500, I am seeing a bullish setup in the Industrials SPDR. $SPY $IJR $SPXA200R $SMLA200R $XLK !GT200XLI

Small-caps Lead – Breadth Improves as SPY Pulls Back – Industrials SPDR Sets Up Read More »

Rising Rates and Hawkish Fed Weigh on Gold/Silver – Copper Miners Hits MoT

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Precious metals were hit hard this week with gold, silver and platinum breaking their 200-day SMAs. All three are now in downtrends. Today’s report will cover these breakdowns and show why the macro backdrop is negative for precious metals. The 2-yr Treasury Yield is rising and above the Fed Funds Target Rate, which points to a hawkish Fed. We will chart the macro shifts since 2021 and lay out the bear case for gold, and possibly stocks. $GLD $SLV $$FEDTGT $UST2Y $GDX $COPX $URA $SRUUF

Rising Rates and Hawkish Fed Weigh on Gold/Silver – Copper Miners Hits MoT Read More »

Hyperscaler Debt – MAGS Lags – Overextended Semis – Software Volatility

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Today’s report will focus on the Mag7 ETF and Semiconductors ($MAGS, $SOXX, $SMH). Hyperscalers drive AI spending and semiconductors are the main beneficiary. MAGS shows relative weakness and the semiconductor ETFs are extremely stretched. Keep in mind that semiconductors account for 48% of the Technology SPDR and tech accounts for 37.26% of SPY.

Hyperscaler Debt – MAGS Lags – Overextended Semis – Software Volatility Read More »

Breakouts in Finance, Brokers, Banks, Defense – Setups in Biotech and Med Devices

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There are signs of money is moving into groups related to the finance and healthcare sectors. The Finance SPDR, Broker-Dealer ETF and Bank ETFs are breaking out with strong moves the last five days. Within healthcare, the biotech ETFs are setting up with bullish consolidation patterns. Even the lowly Medical Devices ETF is perking up with a double bottom and an bullish Aroon cross. $XLF, $IAI, $KRE, $KBE, $ITA, $IHI, $XBI, $IBB

Breakouts in Finance, Brokers, Banks, Defense – Setups in Biotech and Med Devices Read More »

Outsized Declines Signal Character Change for SPY/QQQ and Market Rotation

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SPY and QQQ fell sharply on Friday with outsized declines. The 1-day percentage losses were the highest since January, scene of another character change. While the weight of the evidence remains bullish and SPY/QQQ remain in uptrends, this character change could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market and a rotation into other groups. $SPY $QQQ $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $RSP

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Gold Gets Interesting – Copper Leads as Miners Break Out – Uranium Sets Up

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Gold continues to test a Bullish Setup Zone as Silver consolidates at a make-or-break area. The Gold Miners ETF has a triangle breakdown working. Industrial metals remain strong with physical uranium setting up bullish. The Copper Miners ETF is holding its triangle breakout as the Uranium Miners ETF bounces off support. Agriculture was hit hard, but the DB Agriculture ETF is still in an uptrend and at the top of a Bullish Setup Zone. $GLD $SLV $GDX $CPER $DBB $USL $DBA $URA $SRUUF

Gold Gets Interesting – Copper Leads as Miners Break Out – Uranium Sets Up Read More »

Baker Hughes, Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls and PG&E

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Today’s report starts with the oil patch as Baker Hughes returns to the breakout zone. We then feature two stocks from the industrials sector. Trane Technologies pulled back to a Bullish Setup Zone and Johnson Controls broke out of a falling wedge. We end with a utility stock (PG&E) that is firming at its rising 200-day SMA. $BKR $TT $JCI $PCG

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Consolidations in Industrials, Finance and Comm Services – Breakouts in Defense and Brokers

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Today’s report starts with our weight-of-the-evidence charts, and the evidence is bullish. We project a path forward for $SPY and $QQQ, and highlight the breakouts in $RSP, $IJH and $IJR (equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps). Attention then turns to setup consolidations in Industrials ($XLI), Communication Services ($XLC) and Finance ($XLF). We also feature breakouts in the Aerospace & Defense ETF ($ITA) and Broker Dealer & Exchanges ETF ($IAI).

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Gold Extends Correction – Copper & Uranium Miners Bounce off Support – Ag Oversold

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May is proving to be a volatile month for the asset class ETFs. There were big price swings in bonds, oil, copper, and agriculture. Headlines drive short-term swings, but the bigger trends remain intact. Bonds are trending lower, oil is holding its breakout, copper remains in an uptrend and agriculture is setting up with a bullish pullback. $IEF $TLT $USL $GLD $CPER $DBB $SRUUF $COPX $URA $DBA $IBIT

Gold Extends Correction – Copper & Uranium Miners Bounce off Support – Ag Oversold Read More »

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