Weekend Videos – Breadth Model Review, ChartBook and Seasonality

The mighty Nasdaq 100 and related technology groups continue to lead the market. In fact, one could even suggest that they are holding up the broader market, with some help from the Communication Services and Healthcare sectors. Together, these groups account for a big chunk of the S&P 500. Despite a big pocket of strength

There is a lot of stalling going on out there. A stall can be the pause that refreshes or it can signal a stalemate that leads to a trend reversal. Several ETFs broke their mid June lows, but the tech and healthcare related ETFs are holding up and have yet to break their mid June lows. Some tech-related ETFs are even trading well above these lows. Outside of tech

Today’s video starts with the four long-term breadth models, of which three are in bear mode. We then turn to the three dynamics at work in the stock market: the broad market environment, the medium-term trend and the short-term condition. I will review the weight of the evidence with the equal-weight sectors and intermediate-term indicators. And finally, we will finish with the Fed, yield spreads, the ETF rankings and the ChartBook.

The rock and the hard place is back. The major index ETFs are in medium-term uptrends that started in late March and have yet to reverse. These uptrends, however, are hitting resistance as the 200-day SMAs come into play for SPY and IWM. QQQ left its 200-day in the dust a long time ago.

QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs moved to new highs again this week, but these new highs were not matched elsewhere and non-confirmations are building. For example, QQQ forged a higher high from June 10th to June 24th, but SPY and IWM did not. QQQ and techs have been leading for some time, and they continue to lead. However,

Some ominous chart patterns are taking shape in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, S&P 500 SPDR and S&P 500 EW ETF. QQQ remains in a clear uptrend with a new high this week. SPY did not exceed its early June high this week and is lagging QQQ. RSP is lagging SPY because it is back below its 200-day SMA with a bearish wedge taking shape.

The weekend video starts with long-term and short-term breadth models for four major indexes: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Only one of the four long-term breadth models is bullish – and no prizes for guessing which one. This week’s bounce established uniform support levels in dozens of ETFs to watch next week. There are ominous wedges in

Today we will dive into long-term and short-term breadth models using the same indicators for four different indexes. These models cover the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Looking at a market of 1500 stocks, the evidence is mixed, at best. Three of the four long-term models are net bearish and all four short-term models are net bullish.

The intermediate trend is the dominant force at work for most stock-related ETFs and this trend is up. This is basically the uptrend from late March to mid June. The bears fired a shot across the bow last week with a sharp decline, but the bulls answered with a reversal day on Monday and pop on Tuesday. Most importantly, price action on Monday-Tuesday affirmed support for several ETFs and established a reaction low for others.

This is just a short update for SPY and a decision on the preferred moving average combo for the S&P 500. After a plunge on Thursday, stocks firmed on Friday and forged an intraday reversal on Monday. This firmness is occurring near short-term support for many ETFs and the major index ETFs held their intermediate uptrends, which have been in place since late March. Small-caps, housing, biotech, gold miners and corporate bonds led the advance.

Today’s weekend video starts with the indicators that make up the breadth model and their individual signals. We then add some basic market timing and show the model signals over the last 20 years. I will also provide a preview of a short-term breadth model. Attention then turns to potential reversals in SPY and TLT, the rising wedges in RSP and IWM, the StochClose rankings and the ChartBook

Stocks took it on the chin Thursday with the biggest weekly decline since declines began (March). Once again, small-caps and mid-caps led the way lower with outsized declines. Even more disconcerting, we saw outsized declines in some key large-cap sectors as the Consumer Discretionary SPDR fell over 5%, the Industrials SPDR fell over 8% and the Finance SPDR fell 7%.

The broader environment for stocks is technically bullish, but risk remains well above average. The S&P 500 moved above its 200-day SMA and the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. The %Above 50-day SMA indicators surged above 80% to trigger bullish and the Index Breadth Model based on StockCharts data triggered bullish on June 5th with five of nine indicators on bullish signals. That’s the bullish part.

It was a big week on Wall Street as stocks surged with the biggest weekly gains since the initial lift off started (late March and early April). Small-caps and mid-caps led the way with gains exceeding 8%. Large-caps lagged as SPY gained a measly 5% and QQQ advanced a paltry 2.71%. These moves triggered

The market is a forward looking beast and we are seeing some pretty strong signals from short-term and medium-term breadth indicators. The long-term breadth indicators, however, are still lagging and have yet to trigger. Today I will put a medium-term breadth model to the test and show how to improve results with a simple timing mechanism.

Before looking at the ETF rankings and charts, note that the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day SMA at the end of May and this signaled the all clear for some trend-following and momentum strategies. Many trend-following and momentum strategies are only active when the S&P 500 is in a long-term uptrend because

Today’s video will start with a 16+ year backtest of a slightly modified version of the Index Breadth Model. These results will be compared to buy-and-hold and a 5/200 cross for the S&P 500 SPDR. I will then review the current signals in the StockCharts breadth indicators. The upswing since late March dominates right now so