Weekend Video – Large vs Small, XLK Accelerates Higher, Gold/Silver Firm, Oversold Conditions in Commodity-related ETFs (Premium)

Today we start with an up and coming industry group ETF (cannabis) and then turn to some commodity-related ETFs. Gold […]

The overall picture is bullish for stocks, but there are some “less strong” pockets. Large-caps are leading with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs in late June. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 ETF remains below its March high, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR peaked in late April and the S&P 500 EW ETF has been stuck in a triangle since mid May. The market is not firing on all cylinders, but the BIG cylinders are firing and this is why large-caps are leading.

Stocks finished on a high note with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs. Mid-caps, small-caps and micro-caps are still short of new highs and lagging large-caps overall. Treasury yields look poised to move higher, which means bonds look poised to move lower. Gold is very oversold, but still has a rather

Today’s commentary starts with Treasury yields by highlighting the divergence between short-term and long-term yields. We then look at the yield curve and its correlation with the Regional Bank ETF. Even though KRE has underperformed the last three months, it became quite oversold last week and got a bounce. We then turn to the breakout in the

The S&P 500 SPDR remains in a steady uptrend with a grind higher, but we are seeing less strength as we move down in market cap. The S&P 500 EW ETF has been flat since May, while small-caps and mid-caps have been flat since March. SPY is caught up in rotations within the market that generally favor

It was quite an eventful week with the 10-yr yield falling sharply, the 5-yr yield surging, gold reversing its upswing and stocks taking a hard hit the last three days. Tech and Healthcare are holding up relatively well as Industrials, Finance, Materials and Consumer Staples led the decline

The Dollar, gold, bonds and high-growth stocks were covered on Thursday morning because of big moves and a signal for

Among the ETFs, there are still several holding above their breakouts and near new highs (Energy, 5G, Autos, Defense). These are still the leaders. We are, however, seeing a lot of short-term breakouts fail (Industrials, Materials, Metals, Agriculture). In addition, a few key groups are seriously underperforming

There is nothing like a Fed meeting to shake up the market. Thus, I am going to cover the intermarket ETFs a day early because there are some reversals and patterns we should be aware of. There appears to be a change in thinking at the Fed and the Fed is still the elephant in the room when it comes to

Tech stocks led the market again this week and the tech-related ETFs are the top performers over the last four to five weeks. The old economy ETFs, such as industrials, housing,

The stock market does not get any more mixed than it did on Thursday. The S&P 500 SPDR closed with a .50% gain, the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR closed with a 1.6% loss and the Nasdaq 100 ETF advanced 1%. This was not a value-growth split, but rather a large-small split. Small-cap growth (IJT) and small-cap value (IJS) were both down over 1%.

There are still plenty of short-term setups out there. These include one to three week pennants, flags and falling wedges. There were even some short-term breakout attempts in late May and early June. Several of these breakouts are under pressure as prices fell back. A short-term consolidation within an uptrend is typically a bullish continuation pattern, but

Tech stocks were hit with selling pressure on Thursday and then rebounded along with Treasury bonds on Friday. The narrative seems to be that rising bonds and falling yields are bullish for tech stocks. Regardless of the narrative, several tech related ETFs are holding their breakouts within larger

SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record

REIT and energy ETFs are leading the market right now as ETFs in these groups surged to new highs. Some old economy ETFs are not far behind with the Finance SPDR, the Metals & Mining SPDR and the Global Auto ETF also hitting new highs.