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Trading Themes to Watch Going Forward (Free)

Several trading themes emerged over the past month and these themes could have legs. Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago and the broader market is significantly higher since the invasion. The Russell 2000 ETF is up 6.81%, the S&P 500 SPDR is 7.29% higher and the Nasdaq 100 ETF is leading with a 9.09% gain. Note that small-caps are lagging. These are impressive gains, but the leading groups are not the usual suspects as new leaders emerged to reflect some new realities.  

The PerfChart below shows the performance for SPY, QQQ, IWM and eight ETFs since February 23rd. Notice that the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up less and lagging the broader market. The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR), in contrast, is leading within the technology sector and up more than twice as much as QQQ. Cybersecurity is emerging as an important theme and we should keep CIBR on our radar.

The other six ETFs are also up more than the broader market and represent emerging themes that could continue. These include energy (XLE), clean energy (PBW), defense (XAR), metals/mining (XME), agribusiness (MOO) and gold miners (GDX). These ETFs are also at the top of the performance ranking at TrendInvestorPro and represent the momentum leaders right now.

This week at TrendInvestorPro I continued the Trend Composite trading strategy series with part six. This part tested an ATR Trailing Stop and fixed time exits. Click here for immediate access to this series and more.

In this this week’s video, I reviewed the weight of the evidence for the broader market and the emerging themes over the past month.

The Trend Composite, ATR Trailing Stop and nine other indicators are part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP. Click here to take your analysis process to the next level.

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium)

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It as been 18 days since Putin invaded Ukraine and SPY is up 5.32% since the close on Wednesday, February 23rd. QQQ is up 6.3% and IWM is 6.5%. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an alleged safe-haven, is down 4.6%. While the gains in stocks are

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section

Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives

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Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium)

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It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)

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The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered.

Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and the S&P 500 SPDR is in a downtrend since the January breakdown. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) held up a little better than SPY in January-February, but remains short of a resistance breakout that would negate the January breakdown. In short, the trends

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)

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Stocks staged a big intraday reversal on Thursday and followed through on Friday with strong breadth (one day). The two-day sequence is impressive, but not enough to undo the technical damage done the last two months (%Above 200-day, bearish breadth thrusts, expanding new low list). In addition, yield spreads continued to widen and show rising stress

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium)

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The markets are getting rattled with big moves after the invasion of Ukraine, but these moves are in the direction of existing trends. Oil, industrial metals, gold and agriculture were already in market leading uptrends. They are also up strong today. SPY, QQQ and many ETFs were already in downtrends after impulse declines in January. There were oversold bounces in February, but

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs

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Today’s article is the fourth installment in the Trend Composite series. We started with an introduction to the Trend Composite, tested uptrend/downtrend signals and then moved to portfolio level testing using StochClose as the tiebreak. Today we focus more on StochClose rank by using

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs Read More »

Weekend Video – 5/200 Cross Flips CBM, Breadth Deteriorates Further, Spreads Widen, Commodities Lead, Techs Get Slammed (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish this week as the S&P 500 led the broad market lower. New lows expanded and some 60% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs. Throw in widening yield spreads and the Market Regime is clearly

Weekend Video – 5/200 Cross Flips CBM, Breadth Deteriorates Further, Spreads Widen, Commodities Lead, Techs Get Slammed (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – CBM Flips, Commodity Related ETFs Lead, Finance and Staples Related ETFs Hold Up, Tech Turns Volatile (Premium)

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The stock market is as divided as ever with the pockets of weakness at the risk-on end. Risk-off ETFs and commodity-related ETFs are performing the best right now. Finance-related ETFs are also holding their own as the 10-yr Treasury Yield exceeds 2%. There are some

Mkt/ETF Commentary – CBM Flips, Commodity Related ETFs Lead, Finance and Staples Related ETFs Hold Up, Tech Turns Volatile (Premium) Read More »

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