Market/ETF Video – Numerous Failures at the Falling 200-day SMA, Oil and Energy ETFs Buck the Stock Market, Ag ETFs Pop (Premium)

The thrust that began in mid July extended into mid August and triggered bullish signals in the Thrust Breadth Models. The Trend Models, however, remain bearish, as does the 5/200 day SMA cross for the S&P 500. At best, the market is split and more work is needed to turn bullish. At worst, the market is overbought

The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and SPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the short-term trend is up and has yet to reverse. Today’s video will mark some short-term support levels to watch for a few key ETFs and the line-in-the-sand for a short-term breadth indicator. We are seeing sharp counter-trend bounces in a

We are seeing more bullish Trend Composite signals, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Of the 274 ETFs in the master list, there are 22 ETFs (13%) with positive Trend Composites (uptrends) and 152 (87%) with downtrends. The uptrend signals are

Today’s report starts with some short-term breadth indicators. One of the three triggered a bullish breadth thrust, but the other two have yet to show the upside participation needed for a thrust signal. They have yet to cross that line and are actually looking short-term

Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads

Despite a big advance in June, the Market Regime remains bearish and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs. In addition, the Trend Composite is negative for the vast majority of stock-based ETFs. A few ETFs related to clean energy, fossil fuels, consumer staples,

Today’s report will update Dow Theory analysis from last month, recall an old adage from Marty Zweig and show that only two assets are holding up. The Dollar remains very strong, which means the opposing

The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial

Stocks became oversold after a sharp decline in June and the bounced to varying degrees. Some of these bounces were quite sharp (ITB, IBB) and some ETFs simply consolidated (SPY, KRE). Almost all ETFs are in downtrends and this means the bounces are considered counter-trend

After becoming very oversold in mid June, the major index ETFs are in the midst of oversold bounces or consolidations over the last three weeks. Predicting the extend of a bounce is tricky, but the current bounce since mid