Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Stocks surged last week, but we have yet to see breakouts in SPY and QQQ. These two surged within their falling channel patterns. Last week’s bounces were expected because stocks were oversold, the turn of the month shows a bullish bias and November is seasonally strong. These arguments were laid out last
The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look
The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look for ways to filter the noise.
SPY and QQQ are getting oversold bounces within larger downtrends. Short-term, a number of factors came together for this bounce. First, the turn-of-the-month shows a bullish bias, especially the October-November turn. Second, monthly seasonal
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Over 75% of S&P 1500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs and 52-week lows are outpacing 52-week highs by a wide margin. SPY (large-caps), MDY (mid-caps) and IWM (small-caps) are below their 200-day SMAs and in long-term downtrends. QQQ is still above its 200-day SMA, but
Correlations rise during bear markets. This means more stocks participate in broad market declines than broad market advances. In other words, the odds are stacked against us when picking stocks in bear markets. Traders are better off looking outside of the stock market for opportunities.
Looking Outside the Stock Market for Opportunities – with video (Free) Read More »
We are taking a step back today with some weekly charts for a long-term perspective. It is not pretty because we are in a bear market and risk in stocks is well above average. SPY and QQQ recently reversed their upswings. This means the immediate
The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks and deteriorating even further. Around 70% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Some 26.4% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 73.5% are below.
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. 62% of S&P 500 stocks and 65% of S&P 1500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. The S&P 500 EW ETF, S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF are well below their 200-day SMAs and
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) led the market the first seven months of the year, but fell on hard times the last two months and reversed its long-term uptrend. Today’s report/video will look at the trend reversal in ITB using the RSI Trend Range indicator
SPY and QQQ are holding up and still in uptrends. However, some 63% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs and in long-term downtrends. The small-cap and mid-cap index ETFs are trading well below their 200-day SMAs and near their spring lows. The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. SPY and QQQ are
Today’s report will compare charts and performance for the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD). SOXX represents large-caps and is holding up. XSD represents the average semiconductor stock and it is not
Equal-weight Semis Break Down – Is SOXX Next? – with video (Free) Read More »
Despite a rough ride in September, the S&P 500 is still up 14% year-to-date and the Nasdaq 100 is up a whopping 40%. The gains here, however, do not tell the entire story because many stocks are
EBAY Cannot Hold a Bid – with Video (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. SPY and QQQ are in downtrends the last two months, but they are getting oversold bounces after becoming oversold last week. Large-caps and large-cap techs are leading the market. In particular, software and
Chartists looking to get the jump on a bigger breakout can turn to the swings within a developing pattern. For example, a Symmetrical Triangle after an advance is a bullish
Trading the Swing within the Pattern: IGV Example – with video (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. First, long-term breadth indicators are net bearish. Second, the S&P 500 EW ETF, Russell 2000 ETF and S&P SmallCap 600 are below their 200-day SMAs. These ETFs also fell back to their
QQQ remains well above the rising 200-day SMA, but clearly shifted from bullish to bearish over the last two months. Today’s report/video will show this momentum shift and analyze the short-term continuation pattern taking shape.
A Key Momentum Indicator Shifts from Bullish to Bearish for QQQ – with video (Free) Read More »
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) almost tagged its rising 200-day SMA after a sharp decline from early September to early October. SPY is short-term oversold, but the weight of the evidence is bearish. The Composite Breadth Model is at -1 and most stocks within the index
The Composite Breadth Model (CBM) turned negative on Monday (-1) and the weight of the evidence is now bearish for stocks. This development means risk in stocks is above average. Strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs perform poorly when risk is above average
Market Timing Models Improve Long-term Performance Read More »
The pockets of strength are shrinking as more stocks succumb to selling pressure. The Nasdaq 100 is the strongest of the major indexes, while the Finance sector is one of the weakest sectors. Today’s report will highlight two leaders within the Nasdaq 100 and two laggards within the finance sector.
Two Holding Up and Two Breaking Down – with video (Free) Read More »
