Do Overbought Filters Improve Performance for Momentum Rotation Strategies? (Premium)

The election has come and gone, and the market trends remain the same. The major index ETFs were in uptrends well before the election, breadth was strong throughout September-October and yield spreads showed confidence. This broad market trio was, and is, bullish. Tech-related ETFs extended on their breakouts and we will feature three AI stocks. Commodities were all over the place so we will revisit industrial metals and copper. Analysis includes VRTX, FCX, COPX and DBA.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but a correction is underway as Treasury yields surge and semiconductors weigh on the largest sector. Semis account for 35.57% of the Technology SPDR and this sector accounts for 32.24% of the S&P 500. We will review the long-term breadth indicators and show some short-term breadth indicators to watch for oversold conditions. Names hitting bullish setup zones include XLV, GEHC, AMGN, ITA, INDA, CPER and COPX.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is at +5, the vast majority of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads remain narrow. Short-term, we could see some headwinds and volatility because the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged and the election looms. We will cover the surge in the 10yr Yield, but take a pass on the election.

Today’s report starts with signs of broadening participation as mid-caps perk up. SPY hit another new high, but QQQ and semis remain below their summer highs. Large-cap techs are also showing some fatigue. We then compare SOXX and SMH, cover the leading tech ETFs and highlight the breakout in Bitcoin. We finish with two stocks: HPE (data centers) and MLM (construction materials).

Today’s report starts with strong breadth, the plunge in yield spreads and fresh highs in SPY. Tech-related ETFs are leading in October as triangle breakouts extend (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and new highs are tagged (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail setups in the Healthcare (XLV), Palladium (PALL) and Biotech (IBB). Other Symbols Covered: VRTX, AMGN, AKAM and MU.

Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Tech-related ETFs are perking up with some triangle breakouts (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and some new highs (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail short-term setups in the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Palladium ETF (PALL). Other Symbols Covered: ILMN, INCY, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MRVL

Today’s report starts with the weight of the evidence for stocks. We look at the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Attention then turns the patterns in play for XLK, SOXX and MAGS, as well as four tech ETFs hitting new highs. China stole the show last week so we also analyze the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), copper and base metals.

Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads, SPY and QQQ. We then turn to key levels for tech ETFs and highlight the leaders. Commodity-related ETFs are strong since August and we are seeing breakouts base metals, agriculture and others. This report also features three stocks: two from healthcare and one from defense.

We are still in a bull market, but some risk-on groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading. Interest rate sensitive groups are leading. After hard hits in early September, tech names recovered this week with strong advances. We will put these into context and show key levels to watch (QQQ, XLK, MAGS, SOXX). The other four tech ETFs (IGV, CIBR, SKYY, FINX) are holding up better. This report also cover MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, DELL, AVGO and NVDA.