Market Regime Charts – NDX Stocks Lead – Spreads Show no Stress – 10Yr Breaks Down

Stocks shrugged off the events in the Middle East and rallied on Monday. Small-caps, Consumer Discretionary, Home Construction, Banks, Infrastructure and Transports led the way higher. These are largely cyclical groups and relative strength suggest that the advance may be broadening. It is still early days, but I am seeing lots of pennants forming from mid May to June. Breakouts would

Commodity, crypto and a few bond related ETFs are leading. Our ETF Ranking shows that 10 of the top 20 are related to these alternatives. Equity ETFs make up the other ten, but equity alternatives remain, well, serious alternatives. In particular, metals-related ETFs continue strong (gold, silver, platinum, uranium). The Platinum ETF (PLTM), however, looks dangerously

Nasdaq 100 stocks and QQQ are leading, but the weight of the evidence remains mixed for the broader market. After a big advance since early April, a pullback could be brewing as short-term bearish divergences take shape in S&P 500 breadth. We will cover the key breadth indicators, support levels for SPY/QQQ and the pennant breakouts in tech-related ETFs. Commodities remain strong with metals leading the way.

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Tech-related ETFs are leading in June as several broke out of pennants and extended higher. Today’s report will update these breakouts and their trailing stops. Despite continued strength in tech, I am seeing short-term underperformance emerge in mid-caps, finance, banks and consumer discretionary. These four are lagging the last 20 days because their respective ETFs have yet to clear their May highs.

Non-equity ETFs continue to perform well and feature in the top twenty. These include commodity, bond and crypto ETFs. This list expands when we include equity ETFs related to commodities, such as the Gold Miners ETF (GDX). GDX is part of the equity group because its components are stocks and stocks represent companies. This also applies to SIL, URA and BLOK. These ETFs are composed of stocks, not the underlying asset.

SPY and QQQ continued to lead the broader market higher, but MDY and IJR caught a bid with pennant breakouts this week. In fact, there are lots of pennant breakouts, especially in leading tech-related ETFs. We will cover these breakouts and show suggestions for trailing stops. Industrial and precious metals are leading the market with huge moves the last few weeks. Crypto is also perking up as IBIT breaks a flag line.

QQQ and Nasdaq 100 stocks continue to lead the market since the April low. QQQ extended higher and crossed the upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday for an uptrend signal. A breadth indicator also flipped bullish, which means the Nasdaq 100 indicator group is now net bullish (four of five). There are three indicator groups totaling 15 indicators. All indicators covering the S&P 500 and

SPY and QQQ continue to lead the market with leading breakouts in mid May. Small-caps surged over the last five days, but the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) remains below its falling 200-day SMA. IJR is also showing relative weakness. Despite strength and leadership in large-caps and large-cap techs, many are looking quite

Despite the stock market surge from early April to early June, only a handful of stock ETFs are outperforming alternative asset ETFs. Commodity and crypto related ETFs account for twelve of the twenty year-to-date leaders in the all-weather ETF list, which has 74 ETFs. The year-to-date percentage change (YTD %Chg) is perfect for measuring performance because is encompasses the stock market

The broader market remains mixed with fewer than 50% of S&P 1500 stocks in long-term uptrends. Strength is concentrated in large-caps and large-cap tech stocks (Nasdaq 100). Several tech ETFs formed flag/pennant patterns the last two weeks and broke out. In an interesting twist, we are also seeing strength in Consumer Staples and Utilities, two defensive groups. Commodities remain strong, especially metals. Silver and Platinum broke out, while Palladium turned up.

There is no change for the broad market environment, which is mixed, at best, and still bearish at worst. The weight of the evidence turns bearish in mid March and this signal has yet to be reversed. Keep in mind that SPY and QQQ are part of the broad market environment, but they are large-cap driven ETFs that do not always reflect conditions under the surface. Breadth indicators reflect conditions for the average stock.

Even though small-caps and mid-caps are dragging their feet, Nasdaq 100 stocks are leading with the highest percentage above their 200-day SMAs. This is a positive sign for large-cap stocks and stocks in the Technology sector. In addition, SPY and QQQ are holding their May 12th breakouts and 200-day SMA. Again, this is positive for large-caps and tech stocks. Small-caps and mid-caps are still

Today’s report covers commodity ETFs and the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), simply because they are leading in 2025. Year-to-date, nine of the top ten performing ETFs are commodity or crypto related. My focus list has 74 ETFs covering equities, commodities, bonds and crypto. The Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the only equity ETF in the top ten right now. The table below shows the 20 ETFs with

SPY, QQQ and XLK are leading the surge as their gap-breakouts hold. The broader market, however, remains mixed as small-caps and mid-caps lag. New highs are starting to appear with cybersecurity, defense and telecom leading the way. We are also seeing relative strength in blockchain and software. Precious metals remain strong with platinum joining the breakout parade. Copper perked up and Bitcoin is trading near new highs.

The broad market environment is mixed, at best, and still bearish at worst. Keep in mind that SPY and QQQ are part of the broad market environment, but they are large-cap driven ETFs that do not always reflect conditions under the surface. Breadth indicators reflect conditions for the average stock. Just over 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 150 and 200 day SMAs. This

Here we go again. Negative tariff news on Friday weighed on stocks, and positive tariff news lifted stocks on Monday-Tuesday. Last week’s drop and today’s pop do not change the situation in the markets. SPY and QQQ broke out with gap-surges on May 12th. Even though May 12th represents another tariff-related event, these breakouts and gaps are holding, and bullish until proven otherwise. Short-term, stocks were

PGM stands for the platinum group of metals, which includes ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium and platinum. These metals have similar properties and are usually found together when mining. Palladium is a key metal for catalytic converters, and is also used in electronics and dental alloys. Platinum is mostly used for jewelry, and also for catalytic converters.

Stocks were hit as SPY fell 1.69%, its largest 1-day decline since April 21st, which was just before the Zweig Breadth Thrust. We do not need to look far for the reasons. First, stocks were short-term overbought after the surge from April 22nd to May 20th. SPY was up over 16% in 20 days. Second, the 30-yr Treasury Yield surged above 5% and hit a new high

Stocks started improving with the Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th and continued with a bullish 5/200 cross. Despite a strong advance, breadth has yet to expand to levels that signal a bull market. SPY and QQQ are holding their gaps and 200-day SMAs, but short-term overbought after big moves. We will show the key levels to watch. Elsewhere, year-to-date performance highlights the true leaders and metals are perking up.