Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Dollar Surges – Copper & Base Metals hit Bullish Setup Zones – Bonds Break Out

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Defense Stocks – BWX Technologies, General Dynamics and RTX Corp

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Today’s report focuses on three stocks in the Aerospace & Defense ETF, which has a breakout working since late May. This group corrected in March-April, found its footing in May and moved higher in June. Defense stocks are also part of the Industrials SPDR and account for 24.4% of the sector. BWX Tech reversed off of a support zone, General Dynamics turned up within a consolidation and RTX recaptured its 200-day. SMA $BWXT $GD $RTX

Defense Stocks – BWX Technologies, General Dynamics and RTX Corp Read More »

Breadth Stays Bullish – Yield Spreads Remain Narrow – 2yr Yield Trends Higher

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Even though SPY is near a new high, breadth is not as strong as it was at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, the cup is clearly half full right now because over 60% of S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. It takes a move below 40% to trigger a bear market signal. Elsewhere, yield spreads remain

Breadth Stays Bullish – Yield Spreads Remain Narrow – 2yr Yield Trends Higher Read More »

Breadth Diverges – Tech Breakouts Under Threat – Banks, Infra and Biotech Lead

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The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but several tech groups are showing relative weakness here in June. Semiconductors are still strong with new highs again on Monday. However, SMH and SOXX are very extended and ripe for a rest. Tech is the biggest sector in the S&P 500 and semis are the biggest industry group within tech. The market is very dependent on one group right now. $SPY $QQQ $IJH $IJR $XLK $AIQ $DTCR $SMH $SOXX $XLI $XLF $XLU $XLV $KRE $KBE $IAI $ITA $IFRA $XBI $IBB

Breadth Diverges – Tech Breakouts Under Threat – Banks, Infra and Biotech Lead Read More »

Copper and Base Metals Set Up as Copper Miners Holds Breakout – Ag Breaks Out

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Bonds, precious metals and uranium are trending lower, while industrial metals and agriculture are trending higher. As a consequence, long and short term rates are trending higher, with the latter weighing on gold. Gold, silver and precious metals are in downtrends. Coppers and Base Metals are holding up relatively well with short-term setups working. The Copper Miners ETF remains with a triangle breakout and the DB Agriculture ETF surged off a key retracement. $IEF $UST10Y $GLD $SLV $UST2Y $CPER $DBB $COPX $SRUUF $DBA

Copper and Base Metals Set Up as Copper Miners Holds Breakout – Ag Breaks Out Read More »

Healthcare Extends as Breadth Improves – Setups: Pfizer, Vertex, Novartis, J&J

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Weakness in medical devices/equipment weighed on the healthcare sector this year, but we are seeing strength in large pharma stocks, which account for most of the sector’s weighting. Overall, breadth is improving as XLV extends on its breakouts. We are also seeing bullish setups/breakouts in Pfizer, Vertex, Novartis and J&J $XLV $PFE $NVS $VRTX $JNJ

Healthcare Extends as Breadth Improves – Setups: Pfizer, Vertex, Novartis, J&J Read More »

Breadth Thrust for Utilities – Ameren Surges off Support – Centerpoint Breaks Out

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The utilities sector got a bullish breadth thrust as the percentage of XLU stocks above their 50-day EMA surged above 80. Today’s report will analyze the XLU price chart, this thrust and two long-term breadth indicators, which are bullish. We then dive into the sector with bullish charts for Ameren and Centerpoint. $XLU $AEE $CNP

Breadth Thrust for Utilities – Ameren Surges off Support – Centerpoint Breaks Out Read More »

Breakouts in Tech, Semis, AI, Industrials & Defense – Biotechs Setting Up

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The weight of the evidence has been bullish since the early April surge. Despite disruptions in the Middle East, high oil prices and rising interest rates, stocks stayed bullish throughout April-May and remain bullish here in June. Clearly, the stock market is looking past current events, as it always does. $XLK $SMH $SOXX $AIQ $DCTR $XLI $ITA $XLB $IFRA $IBB $XBI

Breakouts in Tech, Semis, AI, Industrials & Defense – Biotechs Setting Up Read More »

Rising Rates and Hawkish Fed Weigh on Gold/Silver – Copper Miners Hits MoT

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Precious metals were hit hard this week with gold, silver and platinum breaking their 200-day SMAs. All three are now in downtrends. Today’s report will cover these breakdowns and show why the macro backdrop is negative for precious metals. The 2-yr Treasury Yield is rising and above the Fed Funds Target Rate, which points to a hawkish Fed. We will chart the macro shifts since 2021 and lay out the bear case for gold, and possibly stocks. $GLD $SLV $$FEDTGT $UST2Y $GDX $COPX $URA $SRUUF

Rising Rates and Hawkish Fed Weigh on Gold/Silver – Copper Miners Hits MoT Read More »

Hyperscaler Debt – MAGS Lags – Overextended Semis – Software Volatility

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Today’s report will focus on the Mag7 ETF and Semiconductors ($MAGS, $SOXX, $SMH). Hyperscalers drive AI spending and semiconductors are the main beneficiary. MAGS shows relative weakness and the semiconductor ETFs are extremely stretched. Keep in mind that semiconductors account for 48% of the Technology SPDR and tech accounts for 37.26% of SPY.

Hyperscaler Debt – MAGS Lags – Overextended Semis – Software Volatility Read More »

Breakouts in Finance, Brokers, Banks, Defense – Setups in Biotech and Med Devices

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There are signs of money is moving into groups related to the finance and healthcare sectors. The Finance SPDR, Broker-Dealer ETF and Bank ETFs are breaking out with strong moves the last five days. Within healthcare, the biotech ETFs are setting up with bullish consolidation patterns. Even the lowly Medical Devices ETF is perking up with a double bottom and an bullish Aroon cross. $XLF, $IAI, $KRE, $KBE, $ITA, $IHI, $XBI, $IBB

Breakouts in Finance, Brokers, Banks, Defense – Setups in Biotech and Med Devices Read More »

Outsized Declines Signal Character Change for SPY/QQQ and Market Rotation

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SPY and QQQ fell sharply on Friday with outsized declines. The 1-day percentage losses were the highest since January, scene of another character change. While the weight of the evidence remains bullish and SPY/QQQ remain in uptrends, this character change could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market and a rotation into other groups. $SPY $QQQ $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $RSP

Outsized Declines Signal Character Change for SPY/QQQ and Market Rotation Read More »

Gold Gets Interesting – Copper Leads as Miners Break Out – Uranium Sets Up

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Gold continues to test a Bullish Setup Zone as Silver consolidates at a make-or-break area. The Gold Miners ETF has a triangle breakdown working. Industrial metals remain strong with physical uranium setting up bullish. The Copper Miners ETF is holding its triangle breakout as the Uranium Miners ETF bounces off support. Agriculture was hit hard, but the DB Agriculture ETF is still in an uptrend and at the top of a Bullish Setup Zone. $GLD $SLV $GDX $CPER $DBB $USL $DBA $URA $SRUUF

Gold Gets Interesting – Copper Leads as Miners Break Out – Uranium Sets Up Read More »

Baker Hughes, Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls and PG&E

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Today’s report starts with the oil patch as Baker Hughes returns to the breakout zone. We then feature two stocks from the industrials sector. Trane Technologies pulled back to a Bullish Setup Zone and Johnson Controls broke out of a falling wedge. We end with a utility stock (PG&E) that is firming at its rising 200-day SMA. $BKR $TT $JCI $PCG

Baker Hughes, Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls and PG&E Read More »

Consolidations in Industrials, Finance and Comm Services – Breakouts in Defense and Brokers

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Today’s report starts with our weight-of-the-evidence charts, and the evidence is bullish. We project a path forward for $SPY and $QQQ, and highlight the breakouts in $RSP, $IJH and $IJR (equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps). Attention then turns to setup consolidations in Industrials ($XLI), Communication Services ($XLC) and Finance ($XLF). We also feature breakouts in the Aerospace & Defense ETF ($ITA) and Broker Dealer & Exchanges ETF ($IAI).

Consolidations in Industrials, Finance and Comm Services – Breakouts in Defense and Brokers Read More »

Gold Extends Correction – Copper & Uranium Miners Bounce off Support – Ag Oversold

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May is proving to be a volatile month for the asset class ETFs. There were big price swings in bonds, oil, copper, and agriculture. Headlines drive short-term swings, but the bigger trends remain intact. Bonds are trending lower, oil is holding its breakout, copper remains in an uptrend and agriculture is setting up with a bullish pullback. $IEF $TLT $USL $GLD $CPER $DBB $SRUUF $COPX $URA $DBA $IBIT

Gold Extends Correction – Copper & Uranium Miners Bounce off Support – Ag Oversold Read More »

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