Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:
ChartTrader – SPY and QQQ Pop – Cybersecurity and Software Pullback – SOXX Surges – Symbols: CIBR, IGV, PANW, CPER, TLT, STLD (Premium)
This report starts with the short-term breakouts in SPY and QQQ. Battered semiconductor stocks led the surge and we will look at the Semiconductor ETF today. We also cover the Software and Cybersecurity ETFs, which represent
ChartTrader – Bull Market – Not Yet Oversold – Mid and Small Breakouts – Corrections AI Stocks: NVDA, DELL, AVGO, QCOM, PSTG, MU (Premium)
This report starts with the long-term breadth indicators to confirm the bull market. Overall, S&P 500 stocks are stronger than Nasdaq 100 stocks. SPY and QQQ are in the midst of pullbacks and have yet to become oversold. Thus, they could have further to go before bouncing. We will then update the breakouts in
Nvidia Breaks the 50-day SMA – Is this a Threat or an Opportunity?
After a big run this year, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 15% from its high and broke its 50-day SMA. On the face of it, a break below this “key” moving average seems like a short-term bearish signal. Such a view, however
ChartTrader – Long-term QQQ – Seasonals for SPX – Defensive Groups Lead – Symbols: RSP, MDY, IWM, XLU, XLV, IHI, JNJ, JKHY (Premium)
This report starts with a long-term look at the QQQ chart and the seasonality pattern for the S&P 500. Earnings season is in full gear, but the reactions to these reports is decidedly negative. SPY is in
ChartTrader – Plenty of Stocks Above 200-day – Next Support for XLK/MAGS – Symbols: XLI, XLF, XLY, XLV, IPAY, FINX, PAVE, ITB (Premium)
This report starts with the long-term breadth indicators to confirm the bull market. Overall, S&P 500 stocks are stronger than Nasdaq 100 stocks. Our short-term breadth indicators are also bullish. QQQ is in the midst of a pullback and has yet to become
Small-caps Break Out and Lead – Now What?
Small-caps took the lead over the last two weeks with the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) surging over 10% in five days and hitting a new high. IJR also broke out of a long consolidation and this breakout is bullish. There are now three possibilities going forward
ChartTrader – Perspective on Small-cap Breadth Surge, MAGS/XLK Go the Other Way – Symbols: KRE, FINX, IPAY and 12 Stocks (Premium)
This report starts with the big breadth surge in small-caps. We put this surge into perspective and show what it means going forward. The surge in small-caps, however, was offset with outsized declines in large-cap tech stocks. We will show charts for MAGS and XLK
ChartTrader – Long and Short Term Breadth Bullish – Smalls and Mids Break Out – Symbols: RSP, MDY, IWM, VMC, HD, CMI, FAST, CIBR, PANW, SQ (Premium)
Today’s report starts with breadth using the %Above 200-day and 26-week Hi-Lo% indicators. We then confirm the short-term uptrend with 4-wk Hi-Lo%. Attention then turns to breakouts in equal-weights, mids and smalls. We also feature several non-tech stocks breaking out and reversing their downswings.
Using Nasdaq 100 Specific Breadth to Measure Risk Appetite
The Nasdaq 100 is a major driver in the stock market and Nasdaq 100 breadth indicators should be part of our broad market analysis routine. 84 Nasdaq 100 stocks (16.8%) are also in the S&P 500 and their weighting
8 Trend-Following Indicators – Impulse/In-State Signals -Thresholds – Combining with Momentum (Premium)
This report/video covers eight trend-following indicators: BBands, Keltner Channels, Donchian Channels, StochClose, %Difference betw SMAs, ROC of SMA, CCI-Close and eSlope. We show how to reduce whipsaws with smoothing and signal thresholds. Each indicator is explained with chart examples. These samples include good trades and bad trades because whipsaws are guaranteed.
ChartTrader – MAGS Leads with New High – Range Narrows for RSP – Symbols: MDY, SOXX, CIBR, GE, AXON, FI, ZBRA, SAP (Premium)
It is a bull market for large-caps and large-cap techs. The S&P 500 Equal-weight ETF is in a long-term uptrend, but is lagging because it peaked in March. Even though I am seeing less participation in this bull market, I am not seeing serious weakness.
ChartTrader – Long/Short Trends Intact – AI Gets Hit – Symbols: NVDA, AVGO, DELL, SMCI, IBIT, COIN, BBH, IBB, XBI, XLV, DDOG, LMT, CI, FANG (Premium)
Today’s report covers the bull market indicators, short-term market indicators, the big moves in Nvidia, Broadcom, Dell and Super Microcomputer, the biotech Surge helping Healthcare and two Bitcoin related names. Stocks: DataDog, Lockheed Martin, Cigna and Diamondback Energy.
SystemTrader – Changes to Signal Page Updates
Regretfully, I must discontinue the mean-reversion strategies. Performance does not justify the effort. The last update for these signal tables will be on Thursday, June 27th.
ChartTrader – Large Lead – Small and Mid Caps Lag – Symbols: URA, CPER, FXI, AMGN, CPRT, LIN, AMGN (Premium)
There is no change in the overall market condition. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead the market. SPY, QQQ, MAGS, the Technology SPDR and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) hit fresh
ChartTrader – Yields Fall – Housing Firms – 2 Data Center Stocks – Symbols: $TNX, ITB, LEN, TOL, KBH, PHM, SMCI, DELL (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for large-caps and large-cap techs. SPY represents large-caps and QQQ represents large-cap tech stocks. Even though there are 1000s of “other” stocks out there, these stocks represent the 800 pound
Finding Emerging Leaders within Key Groups
The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I am also seeing mixed performance within the technology sector and within specific groups. Semiconductors are strong overall, but groups like cybersecurity
ChartTrader – QQQ/MAGS Lead – RSP Lags – TLT Battles Breakout – Symbols: IBIT, COIN, BLOK, TTD, AMD, EW (Premium)
The Fed and CPI are in the past and large-cap techs continue to lead the market highs. SPY, QQQ, MAGS, the Technology SPDR, the Communication Services SPDR and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) hit 52-week highs to lead the
ChartTrader – Bull Market – Short-term Mixed – MDY Stalls – Symbols: XLV, MRK, TMO, CIBR, CHKP, CYBR, PANW (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for the long-term, but the short-term evidence is a bit mixed. SPX 4wk HiLo% plunged below -30% on May 29th, but NDX 4wk HiLo% did not confirm this signal. Thus, the combo remains net bullish
Alibaba Returns to the Scene of the Crime
Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining some 40% and breaking its 200-day SMA. FXI then fell back over the last few weeks. This surge and pullback created a potential opportunity because some stocks
ChartTrader – Large-cap Techs Lead, Chinese Names Correct, Symbols: RSP, IWM, BOTZ, MEDP, PLTR, FXI, BABA, JD (Premium)
SPY and QQQ surged to new highs on Wednesday and continue to lead the market. Note that SPY and QQQ were the only major index ETFs to hit new highs this week. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) tagged a new high in May, but RSP, MDY and IWM
ChartTrader – Breadth Turns Mixed – Bearish Engulfings – Symbols: TLT, IJR, SOXX, IBIT, BLOK, XBI, $WTIC, BRK.B, BKNG (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for the long-term, but the short-term evidence is turning quite mixed. SPX 4wk High-Low Percent plunged below -30% last week and fewer than 50% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are above their 50-day SMA. Software stocks
Visualizing the Holdings for a Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy
As the name suggests, Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies focus on stocks that are in absolute and relative uptrends. This is a two-step process. First, filter out stocks that are in long-term downtrends and only focus on stocks in uptrend. Second, rank
ChartTrader – Short-term Breadth Indicators Deteriorate – Symbols: TLT, $TNX, FINX, CIBR, IGV, XLK, MAGS, SOXX (Premium)
The long-term indicators are still bullish, but I am seeing short-term deterioration under the surface. This is especially pronounced outside of large-cap tech (XLK, QQQ, MAGS, SOXX). SPY and QQQ are up over the last two months
ChartTrader – Weighing the Evidence – Two Sector Stand Out – Symbols: XLK, XLU, TTD, IBIT, BLOK, BLCN, COIN, MARA (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. SPY and QQQ hit new highs and continue to lead the market. The S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) did not exceed their spring highs and continue to lag. Large-caps and large-cap techs are