Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Welcome to your Friday Chart Fix. Signs of correction and rotation emerged this week as money moved out of tech-related groups and into defensive groups. We will put this week’s rotation into perspective with some year-to-date performance metrics. Nasdaq 100 stocks are a dominant force
QQQ/SPY Targets, IWM Best Hold, NDX Dominance, Bitcoin/QQQ, Costco Holds Up Read More »
The Fed begins its Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole today and the messages from this meeting could create sparks in the intermarket area. Interest rates and bonds are especially sensitive to Fed-related news. This extends to the Dollar, Gold, stocks and possibly even crypto. I
Bonds Hold Breakout – Gold and Silver Wind Up – IBIT Sets up First Support Test Read More »
There is a correction underway with tech stocks weighing on the broader market, especially SPY and QQQ. The Technology sector accounts for a whopping 33.72% of SPY and the S&P 500. Financials are a distant second at 13.67%. We then have Consumer Discretionary
Correction/Rotation – XLK Weighs on SPY – Defensive ETFs Breaking Out Read More »
Today’s report starts by comparing the current March-August sequence with the March-August period in 2020. History does not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes. We then turn to four tech-related ETF that are very extended and ripe for a correction. The Regional Bank ETF helped small-caps last week and it is important that KRE holds its surge. We close with the Gold SPDR, which turned real quiet the last six days.
Comparing 2020 with 2025 – Tech ETFs Extended – KRE Support – GLD Gets Quiet Read More »
The stock market remains in risk-on mode, but the bull run is selective. SPY and QQQ tagged new highs in mid August. Even though mid-caps and small-caps surged last week, IJH and IJR remain well below their November highs and continue to lag large-caps. The new high list shows leadership concentrated in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Narrow
SPY/QQQ Lead – Small/Mids Still Lagging – 93 days since Oversold – Mediocre Breadth Read More »
Welcome to your Friday Chart Fix. Today’s report starts with year-to-date performance for QQQ and its equal-weight brother (QQEW). We then look at the leaders within QQQ and single out Alphabet because it is close to a new high. Attention then turns to small and mid caps because they led the market this week. New highs are still sparse within the space. We then show a ranking table to find the groups with the most new highs. And finally,
QQQ Overtakes QQEW – GOOGL Near High – Groups with Most Highs – Verizon Gaps Read More »
We are seeing leading uptrends in ETFs related to defensive groups: Utilities, Infrastructure and Telecom. All three hit new highs in August and have strong uptrends working. Elsewhere gold is stuck in a trading range with a classic pattern taking shape and Bitcoin returned to the scene of its prior breakout.
Utes, Infrastructure and Telecom Lead – Gold is Stuck – Bitcoin Returns to Breakout Read More »
Small-caps came to life this week with big moves the last two days. These moves keep the uptrends alive for the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF. Both were oversold and at support just below these surges. We will also look at an oversold condition in the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator on August 1st. Even though these moves are impressive, small-caps trade more erratic
Small-caps Surge and Remain Erratic – An Oversold Zweig Breadth Indicator Read More »
Small-caps came to life this week with big moves the last two days. These moves keep the uptrends alive for the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF. Both were oversold and at support just below these surges. We will also look at an oversold condition in the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator on August 1st. Even though these moves are impressive, small-caps trade more erratic than
Uber Holds above Breakout – AbbVie Leads Healthcare – 8 More Stock Setups Read More »
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 breadth indicators are majority bullish, but S&P 1500 breadth remains majority bearish. Yield spreads remain narrow and show no signs of stress in the credit markets, which is bullish for stocks. Short-term rates fell to multi-month lows in early August, indicating that the Fed will cut rates. Overall, the environment for stocks is selectively bullish.
SPX/NDX Breadth Bullish – Yield Spreads Narrow – 3month Yield Predicts Rate Cut Read More »
Big tech continues to lead the market with the Technology SPDR, Mag7 ETF and Semiconductor ETF powering higher. These three have one thing in common (NVDA). It is not just Nvidia power semis because we are also seeing a flag breakout in SOXX. Elsewhere, the Finance sector is maintaining its uptrend as the Regional Bank ETF turned up after
Big Tech Still Leading – SOXX Forms Flag – CIBR Oversold – XLF, KRE, XLY, XLP Read More »
A correction is underway because equity ETFs are mixed over the past month (21 trading days). SPY and QQQ are up, but Small-caps (IJR) and Mid-caps (IJH) are down. Six of the eleven sectors are up, which means five are down. Even within the tech sector, we are seeing mixed performance because the Technology SPDR is up 3.23% and the EW Technology
Correction Underway – Three Indicators Show Increasing Weakness from Within Read More »
Welcome to your Friday Chart Fix. Today we start with the difference between the 2024 bull market and the 2025 bull run. The S&P Total Market Index ETF hit new highs in July, but 2025 breadth is not what it was in 2024. Small-caps are weighing on the broader market as the Russell 2000 ETF battles its 200-day SMA. Even though QQQ is leading the major index ETFs with a double-digit gain
The market is rising, but relatively few stocks are doing the heavy lifting. Will leadership broaden and extend this bull run or will narrow leadership lead to weakness? Today’s report will show how chartists can use new highs and new lows to quantify leadership within the
Narrow Leadership is a Concern, but Bear Signal Yet to Trigger Read More »
The post highlights four stocks that are in long-term uptrends and breaking out after pullbacks. First, we focus on a short-term breakout within a bigger bullish pattern. Second, we look at a flag breakout in an auto stock. Third, we feature a telecom with a wedge breakout and challenge to the rising 200-day SMA. And finally, we analyze a leading cloud stock with a bullish wedge above the rising 200-day SMA.
Four Stocks with Bullish Patterns/Breakouts Working – Including a Cloud Play Read More »
Gold, silver and their respective miners remain in leading uptrends. The Gold and Silver Miners ETFs are leading with new highs after big moves the last three days. Even though gold is lagging, a classic bullish continuation pattern is taking shape. Silver is a little more erratic, but
Gold Forms Classic Pattern – Gold Miners Lead – Base Metals Maintain Upswing Read More »
This report looks at several indicators that point to a correction. Leadership in 2025 was narrow because new highs did not expand to previous levels. We saw the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMA increase the last few months, but these indicators were hit hard in early August. A large percentage of stocks are below their 200-day SMAs, and in long-term
Narrow Leadership – Large Percentage of Downtrends – Correction Targets Read More »
The Market Regime page shows charts and indicators designed to identify bull/bear markets. This is a long-term strategic view, as opposed to a short-term tactical view. Long-term, SPY and QQQ are bullish, but the S&P 1500 is still majority bearish. Short-term, SPY and QQQ are
SPX/NDX Breadth Takes Hit – S&P 1500 Breadth Mixed – Junk Spread Widens Read More »
The risk profile changed in the market over the last two weeks. Tech ETFs led the market into the July highs, but we are seeing leadership emerge in some defensive areas the last two weeks. Namely, the MLP, Utilities and Bond ETFs are breaking out. XLU is leading the pack with a surge to new highs. Lower Treasury yields are proving a lift for the
Recent Breakouts and Short-term Leaders Favor Yield and Risk Aversion (w/ video) Read More »
As noted in reports last week, conditions are ripe for a correction in the stock market and tech-related ETFs are seriously extended. We cannot predict the length, duration or path for a correction, but we can identify periods when the odds favor a correction and trade accordingly. This means taking some money off the table and/or waiting patiently for a robust setup.
Tech ETFs Trigger Trailing Stops – Remain Vulnerable to Correction (w/ video) Read More »
