A Bullish Hat-trick for the Aerospace & Defense ETFs – But One is Seriously Lagging

Stocks are still looking overextended and ripe for a rest. SPY formed three outsized weekly candles, the tallest since the advance began, over the last five weeks. In addition, the weekly gain/loss was well above average for three of the last five weeks.

The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF led the market by surging to new highs. After a bashing at the end of January, these two came roaring out of the gates and answered with big moves in the first week of February. As the chart below shows, SPY held its early January low during the dip and showed relative strength in late January (less weakness).

My, that was quick. A few days ago, Friday January 31st, to be exact, the S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF were down year-to-date. The S&P 500 had just suffered its worst weekly decline since late July (-2.14%) and the small-cap Russell fell 2.94%. In addition, seven of the twelve sector SPDRs were down year-to-date on January 31st

The stock market took a hit this week as money rotated into safe-have assets, such as bonds. Gold also moved higher and hit a 52-week high on Friday. It looks like a correction has started in the stock market as SPY confirmed its weekly harami and the short-term indicators trigger bearish.

The bears fired their first shot across the bow this week with sharp declines on Friday and Monday. The bulls were not in the mood to allow even a modest pullback and quickly stepped back into the market. Short-term, an oversold bounce after a 2.5% decline (Friday-Monday) is pretty normal stuff and does not change my overall thesis.

The defensive names further improved this week, while the number of ETFs showing real weakness expanded. ETFs related to bonds, precious metals (sans silver), utilities and REITs remain strong. We saw the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF, Aggregate Bond ETF and Gold SPDR extend further on their falling wedge breakouts. The Utilities SPDR is the leading sector here in January with a 6.24% gain.

The market turned seriously defensive this week with bond ETFs, precious metals related ETFs, Utilities and REITs leading. We saw wedge breakouts in GLD and GDX around Christmas

The S&P 500 SPDR is up 3% in three weeks (January) and trading near an all time high. Furthermore, the ETF is up 14.5% since August and 9.9% since October. These are big moves in relatively short timeframes, no matter how you slice it.

Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead in January 2020, and housing came back to life this month. The Home Construction ETF is the leading gainer this month with a 8.35% advance. The Cloud Computing ETF and Software ETF are not far behind with ~7.6% advances.

Stocks have been ripe for a rest or correction for weeks, and yet the current advance continues to broaden and buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure. We already know that SPY and QQQ are hitting new highs and leading.

After a breather the last few weeks, the stock market rally appears to be broadening again. Small-caps were lagging the last few weeks as the Russell traded flat. Small-caps got back into gear this week with breakouts and fresh 52-week highs in the Russell 2000 ETF and S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR.

Stocks turned a bit mixed the last two weeks, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish, both long-term and short-term. Looking at the five biggest equal-weight sectors, we saw new highs in the EW Technology ETF (RYT), EW Industrials ETF (RGI) and EW Healthcare ETF (RYH) this week. Technology led in 2019 and continues to lead in 2020.