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Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium)

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Today’s video starts with the corrections in QQQ and IWM, and the resilience in SPY. Techs started the corrective process and small-caps joined this week, but large-caps in the S&P 500 remain immune. Nevertheless, QQQ has a flag breakout working and shows some short-term relative strength. Stocks could find another wind from two bullish seasonal patterns (turn of month and monthly). There are still quite a few oversold setups on the ETF Ranking Table and a few new downtrends in some Chinese ETFs. Within the ETF charts, we are seeing strength in semis, housing, industrials and materials. Healthcare came to life this week as the Healthcare SPDR and Medical Devices ETF broke out. Today’s video will also highlight the “Double W” reversal using price and RSI.

Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

Timing Models – IWM Joins the Correction Fray, QQQ Firms, Two Bullish Seasonal Patterns

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The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.

Timing Models – IWM Joins the Correction Fray, QQQ Firms, Two Bullish Seasonal Patterns Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium)

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The market remains defensive overall. There were flag breakouts in a number of tech and growth ETFs last week and these breakouts are failing this week. Once again, the tech and growth ETFs are leading the way lower. Even though these ETFs are down sharply over the last six weeks, the declines still look like corrections within bigger uptrends. The mid March highs provide the first resistance levels to watch going forward.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium) Read More »

Growth ETFs, Heikin-Ashi and Asian ETFs Setting Up – IHI, FXI, ASHR, KWEB, CQQQ, EWY, EWJ, EWZ (Premium)

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This commentary was originally posted on Wednesday, March 17th, in PDF format. Today I am replacing the PDF with chart images on a web page. Some of the text has been adjusted, but the commentary/charts are largely the same as on Wednesday. These charts cover the massive moves in tech-growth ETFs over the past year, the interest rate debate, Chinese ETFs firming in reversal zones and the Brazil ETFs surging off the 200-day.

Growth ETFs, Heikin-Ashi and Asian ETFs Setting Up – IHI, FXI, ASHR, KWEB, CQQQ, EWY, EWJ, EWZ (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – QQQ Pullback, Flag Breakouts Under Threat, Secular Downtrend in Oil, Healthcare ETFs Strengthen (Premium)

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QQQ and the tech-related ETFs triggered flag breakouts last week and these breakouts were challenged with a pullback this week. Some breakouts failed (IGV) and some are at their moment of truth (IPAY). Today’s video focuses on trailing stops and breakout zones for several of these.

Weekend Video – QQQ Pullback, Flag Breakouts Under Threat, Secular Downtrend in Oil, Healthcare ETFs Strengthen (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – Triple Shock Thursday, the Secular Downtrend in Oil, Tech Sector Continues to Lag (Premium)

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We finally got a bit of a shake up this week as oil fell sharply on Thursday. We also saw big declines in the Nasdaq 100 ETF and Russell 2000 ETF. It was basically triple shock Thursday with small-caps, large-techs and oil getting hit hard. Tech and growth related ETFs were also hit hard as money moved out of the high-beta end of the market.

Timing Models – Triple Shock Thursday, the Secular Downtrend in Oil, Tech Sector Continues to Lag (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flags and Flag Breakouts Dominate the Landscape (Premium)

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There are lots of flag breakouts here in March. Some triggered in early March, some last week, some this week and some are still working, which means price is still near the breakout zone. There were short flag/pennants that lasted a week or so (KRE), shallow flags (IJR), falling flags that lasted three weeks (SPY) and sharper falling flags that lasted four weeks (QQQ, IBB).

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flags and Flag Breakouts Dominate the Landscape (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video and Chartbook – Flags and Zigzags, Big Week for XLP and XLU, Bullish Setups in 5 International ETFs (Premium)

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Stocks perked up this week and we saw flag breakouts in several ETFs. Small-caps led the charge with IWM hitting a new high. QQQ even rebounded with a breakout, but is still lagging year-to-date. Strategically, the Composite Breadth Model remains in bull market mode. Tactically, the breakouts are holding and we will show how to monitor SPY and QQQ going forward. It was also a big week for Utilities and Consumer Staples,

Weekend Video and Chartbook – Flags and Zigzags, Big Week for XLP and XLU, Bullish Setups in 5 International ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – Going for Short-term Breakouts, Split Market with Enough Strength, Composite Breadth Model (Premium)

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SPY and IWM recorded new highs this week and continue to lead the broader market. Even though QQQ and XLK are underperforming this year, the old school sectors held strong and propped up SPY. After short pullbacks into early March, stocks caught a bid this week and we are seeing flag breakouts in

Timing Models – Going for Short-term Breakouts, Split Market with Enough Strength, Composite Breadth Model (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Energy, Banks and Industrials Lead, Tech ETFs Try to Find Footing after Normal Retracements (Premium)

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There are a lot of pullbacks to deal with today. Some pullbacks are shallow, some are deep and some are in between. Often, the bigger the advance, the deeper the pullback or retracement. Despite some big percentage declines, most of the pullbacks are normal in retracement terms (33 to

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Energy, Banks and Industrials Lead, Tech ETFs Try to Find Footing after Normal Retracements (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video and Chartbook – Split Market, S&P 1500 Breadth Signals, Short-term ETF Leaders, Treasury Yield Distractions (Premium)

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Despite an increase in intraday volatility the last few weeks, the recent pullback is actually quite tame, especially for the Russell 2000 ETF and S&P 500 SPDR. QQQ bore the brunt of selling pressure and the Nasdaq 100 Breadth Thrust Model turned bearish. I am not concerned with this signal because the S&P 1500 Thrust Model remains bullish. Today’s video will show backtest results

Weekend Video and Chartbook – Split Market, S&P 1500 Breadth Signals, Short-term ETF Leaders, Treasury Yield Distractions (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – QQQ Leads Short-term Pullback, but Long-term Evidence Remains Bullish (Premium)

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The long-term evidence remains bullish, but the major index ETFs have moved into corrective mode of varying degrees. The S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF are in the midst of shallow pullbacks, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF is leading the way lower with a sharp pullback. Downside participation was so strong in the Nasdaq 100 that the Breadth Thrust

Timing Models – QQQ Leads Short-term Pullback, but Long-term Evidence Remains Bullish (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Finance, Industrials and Energy Hold up as Tech, Healthcare and High-Flyers Correct (Premium)

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Even though ETFs related to small-caps, mid-caps, industrials, finance and energy are performing well and not part of the correction process, a big portion of the core ETF list are in some sort of pullback or correction over the last few weeks. 48 of the 119 ETFs in the core list are down over the last 22 trading days (since January 29th) and 22 are down more than 5%.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Finance, Industrials and Energy Hold up as Tech, Healthcare and High-Flyers Correct (Premium) Read More »

Secondary Downtrends in Primary Uptrends Create Opportunities (IBB Example) (Free)

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With a pullback led by QQQ and the high flyers, several ETFs have become short-term oversold in a longer term uptrend. In Dow Theory terms, the primary trend for these ETFs is up and the secondary trend is down. A secondary downtrend within a primary uptrend is considered a correction within that uptrend and a possible opportunity.

Secondary Downtrends in Primary Uptrends Create Opportunities (IBB Example) (Free) Read More »

Weekend Video and Chartbook – QQQ Leads Lower, SPY and Oversold Conditions, Turn of the Month, Selling Climax in TLT (Premium)

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Stocks corrected over the last two weeks with QQQ leading the way. IWM held up the best and RSI moved into the oversold zone for SPY. Today we will look at previous instances when RSI became oversold for SPY. Some indicators are pointing to a multi-week correction (NDX %Above 50-day), but we also have the turn of the month upon

Weekend Video and Chartbook – QQQ Leads Lower, SPY and Oversold Conditions, Turn of the Month, Selling Climax in TLT (Premium) Read More »

Timing Models – QQQ Reverses Short-term Uptrend, 3 Big Sectors Weigh, Medium-term Participation Wanes within SPX (Premium)

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The long-term evidence (primary trend) is bullish, but we are seeing some short-term weakness (secondary trend). This is especially true in the Nasdaq 100 and Technology sector. SPY is holding up better because the Finance, Industrials and Communication Services are picking up the slack. The table below summarizes the broad market environment using the

Timing Models – QQQ Reverses Short-term Uptrend, 3 Big Sectors Weigh, Medium-term Participation Wanes within SPX (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead, Tech ETFs Pullback, High-Flyers Correct Hard (Premium)

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February is turning into a big month for cyclically oriented ETFs. These include: Copper Miners ETF, Metals & Mining SPDR, DB Base Metals ETF, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF, Airline ETF, Transports ETF, Industrials SPDR, Regional Bank ETF, S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR, S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Semiconductor ETF. The lists below shows ETFs with big gains over the last 17 trading days (February).

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead, Tech ETFs Pullback, High-Flyers Correct Hard (Premium) Read More »

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