ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Energy, Banks and Industrials Lead, Tech ETFs Try to Find Footing after Normal Retracements (Premium)

There are a lot of pullbacks to deal with today. Some pullbacks are shallow, some are deep and some are in between. Often, the bigger the advance, the deeper the pullback or retracement. Despite some big percentage declines, most of the pullbacks are normal in retracement terms (33 to 67 percent). Today’s charts will focus on these pullbacks. We will show ETFs that held up the best, ETFs that already broke out and ETFs that are poised to break out.

Note that a decline is deemed a pullback within a bigger uptrend as long as the bigger trend is up. Typically, this means above the 200-day SMA and with a bullish StochClose signal. We never know how far a pullback will extend or how long it will last. The best we can do is monitor the pullback and look for signs of a reversal. The current pullbacks are two to four weeks old, which puts them in the falling flag category and relatively short-term in nature.

New High, Leading, Extended

XLE, XES, XOP, FCG

Short-Pullback after New High, Still Extended

USO, DBE, DBB, DBA

Flag/Pennant Breakout (8-Mar), New High

RSP, XLF, KRE, KIE, XME

Zigzag Since early November, New High

MDY, IJR

Early Feb Flag Breakout, New High

XLB, XMLP

Mid February Consolidation Breakout, New High

XLI

You can learn more about ATR Trailing stops in this post,
which includes a video and charting option for everyone.

Flag Breakout or Near Breakout, Short of New High

SPY, IWM, XLC, ITB

Mid January Breakout, Modest Follow Thru

REZ, XLRE

Shallow Pullback, 33-50% Retracement, Flag

IPAY, SOXX, HYG

Pullback, ~50-67% Retracement, RSI Oversold

QQQ, XLK

Pullback, 50-67% Retracement, RSI Oversold

HACK, SKYY, FINX, IHI

Sharp Pullback, ~67% Retracement, RSI Oversold

IGV, FDN, PBW, TAN, MJ

Pullback to Rising 200-day, RSI Oversold

XLY, IBB, XBI

Uptrend, Correcting/Consolidating since late January

XLV, IHF, PHO

Mid December Breakout, Breakout Zone Holding

SLV

ETFs from here are lagging over the last few months or in downtrends. Note the gold and Treasury bonds are the weakest of all right now.

Lagging since November: XLP, XLU

Selling Climax, Ripe for a Bounce: TLT, TIP

Downtrend: AGG, LQD, GLD, GDX

Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process