After a dozen new uptrend signals in late August and early September, the tide changed as the S&P 500 experienced its first 4-5 percent pullback since May. This pullback was enough to reverse some of the new uptrend signals and there were 14 new downtrend signals over the last five days. I am referring only to the 113 equity-related ETFs
The Market Regime remains bullish and the S&P 500 is just 4% below its recent high, but breadth has been waning for months and many groups are already in corrective mode. The 4% decline
The AAII indicators make some waves this past week as AAII percent bears surged to 39.3% and percent bulls dropped to 22.40%. As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since
The market regime remains bullish, but breadth continues to wane and more breakouts are failing. Overall, ETFs related to tech, healthcare, communication services and REITs are leading, while ETFs related to industrials, materials and housing are lagging because their breakouts failed to hold. I am also watching TLT and the Dollar because
The stock market remains in a funk. Large-caps finally pulled back with the S&P 500 loosing a whopping 2% from high to low (Sept 2 to 14). SPY remains is a clear uptrend with a rising channel and QQQ has not touched its 50-day SMA since June 3rd. Things are different outside of the S&P 500 because
The broad market environment remains bullish for stocks and the vast majority of equity related ETFs are in uptrends (bullish StochClose signals). Even so, I remain concerned with the broader market environment because breadth continues to deteriorate and a number of ETFs peaked months ago. The Russell 2000
Chartists often face a conundrum when a new trend signal triggers because the stock or ETF is frequently extended when this signal triggers. After all, it takes strong buying pressure for a new uptrend to signal. Short-term overbought or extended conditions are long-term bullish, but these
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell five days in a row for the first time since October 2020, scene of the last decent correction in the stock market. Signs of a correction continue to build as breadth wanes and key metrics hit their lowest levels since last year. We are also seeing corrections or downtrends
The list of ETFs with uptrend signals over the last three weeks reads line the who’s who of the high flyers. This list includes the Video Games eSports ETF (ESPO), the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), the Clean Energy ETF (QCLN)
Timing a correction in the S&P 500 has been a fool’s errand since the November surge and breakout. The index brushed off negative seasonality in February and August. Techs and high flyers declined from mid February to mid May, but the S&P 500 kept right on trucking as money rotated
Of the 113 ETFs in the Core List, 79 are in uptrends (70%) and 34 are in downtrends (30%). This is more than enough to support a bull market in stocks. Six of the seven major index ETFs are in uptrends (SPY, RSP, MDY, IJR, IWM , QQQ) and one
Today’s commentary will start with price chart analysis for a clean energy ETF, which once led the market with triple digit gains. After a corrective period, it appears that this high flying ETF and a few of its brethren are turning up again with recent trend signals. We will start with the price chart analysis and then turn to the systematic signals.
SPY continues on its stairway to higher prices with another new high this week. We are also seeing strength in mid-caps as MDY holds its breakout and new trend signals in small-caps (IJR and IWM). Breadth is not as strong as it used to be, but strong enough to support a bull market. Yield spreads show no signs of stress and the
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There were several new uptrend signals this past week and these signals suggest a stronger risk appetite in the stock market. Today’s report will review the StochClose indicator and some of these new trend-following signals. We will also show these signals on the revamped Ranking and Trend Table. Today’s charts also
Large-caps are doing it again with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF hitting new highs. The small and micro-cap ETFs bounced, but this bounce may be too late as they already triggered downtrend signals. Overall, there are
The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish, which means the market regime is bullish. Breadth is not as strong as it was in April, but this has yet to affect the S&P 500. Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 100-day SMAs in April and now
Chop is the name of the game for a large part of the market. Some ETFs are grinding higher with tight and steady uptrends (SPY, XLC) and some are in more volatile uptrends (QQQ, IHI). Several of these are quite extended too. We saw a number of
Large-caps remain in bull mode with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF leading. Small-caps and micro-caps tell another story with downtrend signals based on StochClose. We have yet to see a flight to safety that could trigger a correction in SPY, but I am watching TLT as it forms a bull
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