Arthur Hill, CMT

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)

Stocks staged a big intraday reversal on Thursday and followed through on Friday with strong breadth (one day). The two-day sequence is impressive, but not enough to undo the technical damage done the last two months (%Above 200-day, bearish breadth thrusts, expanding new low list). In addition, yield spreads continued to widen and show rising stress

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium)

The markets are getting rattled with big moves after the invasion of Ukraine, but these moves are in the direction of existing trends. Oil, industrial metals, gold and agriculture were already in market leading uptrends. They are also up strong today. SPY, QQQ and many ETFs were already in downtrends after impulse declines in January. There were oversold bounces in February, but

Getting Started with TrendInvestorPro!

This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart

Chart Strategy – Timeframes, Trend Composite, Momentum Composite, StochRSI, Setups and Signals (Premium)

A charting strategy is essential because it increases objectivity and improves the odds of success. A basic chart strategy is similar to basic black jack strategy. In his classic book, Beat the Dealer, Edward Thorp, lays out a basic black jack strategy with a set of rules to improve the odds. Once players master basic strategy, they can move on to card counting and such to further improve performance.

The Indicators, Settings and Inputs for the Composite Breadth Model – Plus Quantifying and Comparing Performance (Premium)

The broad market timing model took another evolutionary step. The goal is to develop a logical and robust model that captured major moves in the stock market, and will continue to capture these moves. We are not talking pullbacks, corrections or dead cat bounces. Instead, we are talking bull and bear markets that affect the vast majority of stocks. The BIG trend or the market regime, as it also called.

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