Two Models Trigger Bearish – Dealing with Drawdowns – Momentum Anomaly

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Today’s report will cover the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs that were featured in yesterday’s video. Precious metals are leading the commodity complex and this strength is transferring to the gold and silver miners ETFs. Industrial metals ETFs are not far behind with copper taking the lead here. Even so, copper miners remain subdued and have yet to break out. I am not covering

We have two videos on this page. First, there is a comprehensive video covering index, sector and industry group ETFs (equity ETFs). SPY and QQQ broke down, a couple sectors are holding up and a handful of industry group ETFs have yet to break their January lows. We then turn commodity ETFs, which are showing strength, as our bond ETFs. This vid conclude with the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

Stocks were broadsided the last three weeks with almost all equity ETFs losing ground. High-beta names are leading lower with the ARK ETFs (ARKK, ARKF, ARKG) down over 25%. Tech-related ETFs are right behind with declines ranging from 11.43% for Cybersecurity (CIBR) to 19.76% for Robotics AI (ARTY). Only four equity ETFs in my trading universe are showings

There are five new setups today and some updates to prior setups. We start with three stocks from the defense industry because the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is one of the leading industry group ETFs. I am also featuring a pharma stock (BMY) because the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is showing relative strength here in 2025. And finally, we have an off-price retailer (TJX). Even though it is

There are sizable and concerning pockets of weakness within the stock market, but SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends and testing key levels. The EW S&P 500 ETF, Technology SPDR and Industrials SPDR joined the breakdown list, along with small-caps (IJR) and mid-caps (MDY). One tech ETF stands out. We are also seeing long-term uptrends and relative strength in these eight ETFs (XLF, XLC, XLU, CIBR, IHI, AMLP, IYZ, GLD).

Stocks were hit hard the last two weeks with small-caps and tech stocks leading the way lower. SPY is down around 4.6% from its late February high and entering the garden-variety correction range (5-8 percent). Believe it or not, five to eight percent pullbacks are not that uncommon – but they feel a lot worse

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but this is not a bull market that lifts all boats. I am also seeing splits within sectors and industry groups. This is a selective bull market. Large-caps are holding up better in February and small-caps are lagging. The tech sector and Nasdaq 100 are also holding up relatively well, even with the swoon over the last five days.

Breadth weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with NDX breadth leading the way. S&P 1500 breadth remains the weakest of the three (blame small-caps and mid-caps). This week’s big shift is the breakout in the 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the break down in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. Lower rates may seem positive for stocks, but

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Stocks were hit hard the last three days with the high-beta names leading lower. Defensive groups (Healthcare, Staples, Utes) and bonds picked up the slack. Even though the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, there are some sizable pockets of weakness with lower highs forming in key groups (banks, industrials, software, infrastructure), as well as fresh new lows in housing ETFs. Gold is holding strong, but Bitcoin is under pressure as part of the risk-on trade.

Today’s report features five new setups and three setups from the prior week. The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is perhaps the strongest group in the market right now and we are covering two stocks from this group. We also have a data center REIT setting up as well as a Mag7 stock hitting a Bullish Setup Zone.

The weight of the evidence continues to support a bull market in stocks. All three major index ETFs are in long-term uptrends and all nine breadth indicators are on bull signals (%Above 200-day SMA, %Above 150-day SMA, High-Low Percent). The breadth indicators weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with Nasdaq 100 breadth

Don’t look now, but tech is back with XLK joining QQQ in the new high parade. We are also seeing new highs in ETFs related to Cybersecurity and AI, as well as breakout extensions in Software (IGV) and Cloud (SKYY). Semis continue to lag, but we will take a second look at the SMH chart with a longer timeframe. Elsewhere, ETFs related to industrials are turning back up, defense ETFs pulled back after new highs and the banking ETFs are holding their breakouts.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks (bull market). Large-caps (SPY, QQQ) are leading equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps (RSP, MDY, IWM). QQQ is leading SPY because the former recorded a fresh 52-wk high last week. Several tech-related ETFs are leading the market with bullish setups forming in MAGS and CLOU. I am also watching the flag breakout in Industrials SPDR and setups in four related ETFs (Aerospace & Defense and Infrastructure).

There are two new setups in this report (PAYC, S), and two monitoring setups (ABNB, COIN). The latter two are monitoring setups because these stocks report earnings after the close today. Trading based on chart setups and signals is discretionary in nature. I do not