A Failure Swing for QQQ, a dud
for SPY and a Wedge for RSP

The weekend video starts with long-term and short-term breadth models for four major indexes: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Only one of the four long-term breadth models is bullish – and no prizes for guessing which one. This week’s bounce established uniform support levels in dozens of ETFs to watch next week. There are ominous wedges in

Today we will dive into long-term and short-term breadth models using the same indicators for four different indexes. These models cover the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Looking at a market of 1500 stocks, the evidence is mixed, at best. Three of the four long-term models are net bearish and all four short-term models are net bullish.

The intermediate trend is the dominant force at work for most stock-related ETFs and this trend is up. This is basically the uptrend from late March to mid June. The bears fired a shot across the bow last week with a sharp decline, but the bulls answered with a reversal day on Monday and pop on Tuesday. Most importantly, price action on Monday-Tuesday affirmed support for several ETFs and established a reaction low for others.

This is just a short update for SPY and a decision on the preferred moving average combo for the S&P 500. After a plunge on Thursday, stocks firmed on Friday and forged an intraday reversal on Monday. This firmness is occurring near short-term support for many ETFs and the major index ETFs held their intermediate uptrends, which have been in place since late March. Small-caps, housing, biotech, gold miners and corporate bonds led the advance.

Today’s weekend video starts with the indicators that make up the breadth model and their individual signals. We then add some basic market timing and show the model signals over the last 20 years. I will also provide a preview of a short-term breadth model. Attention then turns to potential reversals in SPY and TLT, the rising wedges in RSP and IWM, the StochClose rankings and the ChartBook

Stocks took it on the chin Thursday with the biggest weekly decline since declines began (March). Once again, small-caps and mid-caps led the way lower with outsized declines. Even more disconcerting, we saw outsized declines in some key large-cap sectors as the Consumer Discretionary SPDR fell over 5%, the Industrials SPDR fell over 8% and the Finance SPDR fell 7%.

The broader environment for stocks is technically bullish, but risk remains well above average. The S&P 500 moved above its 200-day SMA and the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. The %Above 50-day SMA indicators surged above 80% to trigger bullish and the Index Breadth Model based on StockCharts data triggered bullish on June 5th with five of nine indicators on bullish signals. That’s the bullish part.

It was a big week on Wall Street as stocks surged with the biggest weekly gains since the initial lift off started (late March and early April). Small-caps and mid-caps led the way with gains exceeding 8%. Large-caps lagged as SPY gained a measly 5% and QQQ advanced a paltry 2.71%. These moves triggered

The market is a forward looking beast and we are seeing some pretty strong signals from short-term and medium-term breadth indicators. The long-term breadth indicators, however, are still lagging and have yet to trigger. Today I will put a medium-term breadth model to the test and show how to improve results with a simple timing mechanism.

Before looking at the ETF rankings and charts, note that the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day SMA at the end of May and this signaled the all clear for some trend-following and momentum strategies. Many trend-following and momentum strategies are only active when the S&P 500 is in a long-term uptrend because

Today’s video will start with a 16+ year backtest of a slightly modified version of the Index Breadth Model. These results will be compared to buy-and-hold and a 5/200 cross for the S&P 500 SPDR. I will then review the current signals in the StockCharts breadth indicators. The upswing since late March dominates right now so

Today we will dive into breadth indicators and test a modified version of the Index Breadth Model here at TrendInvestorPro. First, however, I will review the S&P 500 SPDR as it toys with its 200-day SMA here at month end. In particular, I am monitoring upswings in four key major index ETFs. After the breadth dissertation

We are seeing some rotation in the market as the leaders stall and the laggards get in gear. The leaders from mid March to mid May lagged over the last two weeks, while the laggards from this period led. ETFs related to bonds, gold, healthcare and technology led the market during the rebound period and were the first to move back above their 200-day SMAs

The S&P 500 is at a moment of truth and the direction it takes will have ramifications throughout the stock market. Today we will review the indicators in the Index Breadth Model, show that the large-cap Bullish Percent Indexes are holding up better and cover the rising High-Low Lines. I will then turn to the QQQ effect on SPY and look at recent signals in SPY

The market, as measured by the S&P 500 SPDR, is at make or break level. Analysts love to talk about key levels and it seems that there is a new “key” level every week if you watch the wrong news outlets. Well, the S&P 500 is at a key level that we should watch closely. The long-term trend remains

Several key ETFs broke down last week and then recovered with big gap-surges on Monday. SPY was also seemingly on the verge of a breakdown, but snapped back with a gap and flag breakout. Today’s charts are littered with gaps and flag/pennant breakouts so we will focus on these.

Stocks surged on Monday with QQQ closing at its highest level since February 21st, SPY closing at its highest level since March 6th and IWM closing at its highest level since April 29th. And there you have the pecking order. QQQ is back to late February levels, SPY is back to early March levels and IWM has yet to exceed its April high. To record a 52-week high

Topics covers in today’s video: top ranked ETF by StochClose, short-term signals in two breadth indicators, small-caps and banks lead lower, Fed balance sheets expands as junk bond spreads widen, short-term support levels to watch going forward, gold breaks out, junk bonds remain weak and TLT bounces off support.

Today’s report will start with the everywhere and nowhere chart for the S&P 500. We will then weigh the broad market evidence by looking at the weekly RSI range, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index and the breadth models. Short-term, the 20-day High-Low Percent indicator triggered a signal on Wednesday’s close and we are seeing short-term breaks in three key equal-weight sectors.

Tech and Healthcare led the market higher over the last eight weeks and these two groups are still holding up, as are their related ETFs. Despite leading, note they fell short of their February highs and could still be vulnerable to broad market weakness. Correlations tend to rise in bear market downturns. Some of the lagging groups are already breaking down, such as industrials and finance, and the SPY is also breaking down.