Comparing 2020 with 2025 – Tech ETFs Extended – KRE Support – GLD Gets Quiet

Today’s report starts by comparing the current March-August sequence with the March-August period in 2020. History does not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes. We then turn to four tech-related ETF that are very extended and ripe for a correction. The Regional Bank ETF helped small-caps last week and it is important that KRE holds its surge. We close with the Gold SPDR, which turned real quiet the last six days.

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SPY/QQQ Lead – Small/Mids Still Lagging – 93 days since Oversold – Mediocre Breadth

The stock market remains in risk-on mode, but the bull run is selective. SPY and QQQ tagged new highs in mid August. Even though mid-caps and small-caps surged last week, IJH and IJR remain well below their November highs and continue to lag large-caps. The new high list shows leadership concentrated in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Narrow

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Small-caps Surge and Remain Erratic – An Oversold Zweig Breadth Indicator

Small-caps came to life this week with big moves the last two days. These moves keep the uptrends alive for the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF. Both were oversold and at support just below these surges. We will also look at an oversold condition in the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator on August 1st. Even though these moves are impressive, small-caps trade more erratic

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Correction Underway – Three Indicators Show Increasing Weakness from Within

A correction is underway because equity ETFs are mixed over the past month (21 trading days). SPY and QQQ are up, but Small-caps (IJR) and Mid-caps (IJH) are down. Six of the eleven sectors are up, which means five are down. Even within the tech sector, we are seeing mixed performance because the Technology SPDR is up 3.23% and the EW Technology

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