The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell over 2% this week for the biggest weekly decline since June. The long-term trend is still up because SPY remains well above the rising 40-week SMA. However, a big Spinning Top candlestick formed last week and a volatility indicator ticked higher. Spinning Tops signal indecision that

Verizon (VZ) participated in the first leg up from late March to mid April, but then stumbled with a decline into mid June. This stumble, however, looks like a classic correction and the stock broke out with a strong move over the last six weeks. In addition, the TIP Trend Composite, which aggregates five trend-following indicators turned positive in early August. Let’s investigate further.

The total number of new highs in the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 continues to underwhelm. Even so, new highs are still outpacing new lows and this is enough to keep the uptrend since late March going. The first chart shows new highs and lows for the three indexes with horizontal lines at the 10% level (e. g. 50 and -50 for the S&P 500).

The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is one of the strongest sectors in 2020. Even though it does not sport the biggest gain, XLV recorded a new high in July and some 80% of its components are above their 200-day EMAs. The new high points to a long-term uptrend and upside leadership, while the percentage of stocks above the 200-day EMA points to broad strength within the sector. Sector SPDRs, however, are only as strong as the sum of their parts (component stocks).

There were a number of Bollinger Band squeeze plays over the last two weeks and also a number of breakouts. These breakouts are bullish until proven otherwise, but chartists should also be aware of the head fake. In his book, Bollinger on Bollinger Bands, here’s how John Bollinger puts it: Traders beware! There is a trick to The Squeeze, an odd turning of the wheel that you need to be aware of, the head fake.

The 200-day SMA is a long-term trend indicator that chartists can use across the equal-weight sectors to measure the balance of power in the broader market. The more sectors trading above their 200-day SMAs, the more bullish the market. The more sectors trading below their 200-day SMAs, the more bearish the market.

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) retreated as stocks advanced from mid April to early June and then popped as stocks dropped this week. Bonds are the natural alternative to stocks and TLT appears to be forming a classic bullish continuation pattern.

The S&P 500 is the most widely used benchmark for the US stock market and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used moving average. These two came together again in late May as the index crossed back above on May 27th. Today we quantify the performance of prior signals and show how a little smoothing can go a long way. Furthermore, a simple market timing mechanism can tell investors when to add risk and when to seek alternatives to stocks.

We all know that many stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) are also part of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). In addition, it is clear that these QQQ stocks affect the performance of SPY. But how much exactly? Today we will answer that question and compare performance for these two ETFs.

The Bullish Percent Index is a breadth indicator that quantifies double top breakouts and double bottom breakdowns, Point & Figure style. Basically, this indicator measures higher highs (breakouts) versus lower lows (breakdowns). This makes it a great candidate to quantify underlying strength and weakness in the S&P 500. There have been three signals in the last few months and one triggered this week.

When it comes to analysis and trading signals, seasonality is behind price action in the pecking order of importance. In general, seasonal patterns carry most weight when they jibe with the underlying trend. For example, bullish seasonal patterns in an uptrend can provide a tailwind.

The two most popular biotech ETFs are leading the market this month and making big statements. Before looking at these two, note that they are quite different. The Biotech ETF (IBB) is dominated by large-cap biotechs with the top ten holdings accounting for over 50%. The Biotech SPDR (XBI), on the other hand, is a broad-based ETF with the top ten holdings accounting for less than 25% of the ETF.

The S&P 500 went from a historic decline to a historic bounce to an above average drop. This key benchmark fell 33.9% in 23 days, surged 17.55% in three days and then dropped 5.25% the last four days.

Chartists looking to measure relative performance based on retracements can use the Stochastic Oscillator to quantify these bounces. Way back on March 1st, I posted an article to show how Chartists can quantify downside retracements using Williams %R.

While the price of an index reflects what is happening on the outside, breadth indicators show us what is happening on the inside, and we all know that inside information can provide an edge. Since we are all not Senators, we must use charts to find that edge

The S&P 500 moved from a 52-week high to a 52-week low with lightening speed over the last three weeks. To capture the sharpness of this decline, I am showing a chart with the 3-week Rate-of-Change in the indicator window.

Support levels and bullish retracement zones are questionable, at best, in bear market environments. Why? Because the path of least resistance is down in a bear market. As such, the odds that a support level holds or a bullish retracement zones leads to a reversal odds greatly reduced

Looking for an indicator to find stocks and ETFs that held up the best last week? Look no further. Today I will show how to use a classic indicator to quantify last week’s decline and rank names by their retracements.

After falling for over a year, the Regional Bank ETF (KRE) finally got its mojo back in the fourth quarter of 2019 and broke out to new highs. The ETF then became overextended in mid December and fell back to the 200-day SMA here in February.

Dow Theory applies the principle of confirmation to confirm primary trends. Charles Dow used the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports to confirm the primary trend for the broader market. The primary trend is up, and confirmed, when the Industrials and Transports both

Amazon is by far the biggest component in the Consumer Discretionary SPDR and its recent breakout bodes well for the ETF. The new highs in XLY and AMZN this month, however, did not carry over to the Equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD).

There are three ETFs covering the defense and aerospace group and all three recorded new highs. Even though these ETFs cover the same industry group and have similar price charts, they are quite different when we look under the hood and one is seriously underperforming the other two.

Selling pressure was extremely broad in Friday with all sectors declining and more than ninety percent of stocks in the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 declining. While this kind of broad selling pressure creates a short-term oversold condition, it also reflects a change in market dynamics and points to a corrective period ahead.

Signs of a correction were building for some time and it now appears that the long awaited corrective period is here. The S&P 500, in particular, is following the script from January 2018 quite closely.