Complimentary Articles and Analysis
Dow Theory applies the principle of confirmation to confirm primary trends. Charles Dow used the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports to confirm the primary trend for the broader market. The primary trend is up, and confirmed, when the Industrials and Transports both
Amazon is by far the biggest component in the Consumer Discretionary SPDR and its recent breakout bodes well for the ETF. The new highs in XLY and AMZN this month, however, did not carry over to the Equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD).
There are three ETFs covering the defense and aerospace group and all three recorded new highs. Even though these ETFs cover the same industry group and have similar price charts, they are quite different when we look under the hood and one is seriously underperforming the other two.
Selling pressure was extremely broad in Friday with all sectors declining and more than ninety percent of stocks in the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 declining. While this kind of broad selling pressure creates a short-term oversold condition, it also reflects a change in market dynamics and points to a corrective period ahead.
Signs of a correction were building for some time and it now appears that the long awaited corrective period is here. The S&P 500, in particular, is following the script from January 2018 quite closely.
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke out of a pennant formation last week and then fell sharply this week. This puts the ETF back in the pennant and near its make or break level.
The stock market started its latest run to infinity (and beyond) in mid August and the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) just happened to peak a week or so later. Note that stocks and bonds were largely on the same page from February to August as both moved higher.
Ten of the eleven sector SPDRs are positive over the last three months. The Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) is the only sector sporting a loss (~.75%), but I am not concerned with relative weakness because the price chart looks bullish overall.
2019 was quite the year with many stocks moving sharply higher from January to July or August. In particular, several Technology stocks moved higher during this period and then corrected into October. We can see this pattern reflected in the Equal-Weight Technology ETF (RYT) as it advanced over 40% and then corrected for three months.