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Panic selling and oversold extremes gave way to a rip higher last week. Stocks are poised to open strong on Monday as the market reacts positively to tariff news. Last week’s bounce is considered an oversold bounce within a bear
With fast-moving markets, this report is vulnerable to self-destruction within 5 days. The bond vigilantes sent a message as long-term yields surged and bonds plunged. Unless reversed, these developments are negative for stocks, especially rate sensitive stocks.
The analysis mode remains macro because the weight of the evidence is still bearish for stocks. Moreover, the markets are unhinged with stocks, commodities, currencies and Treasury bonds fluctuating wildly. Chaos makes chart analysis exceptionally difficult. Perhaps there is opportunity
This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to
Everything, well, almost everything, fell the last four trading days. This includes the gold and US Treasury Bonds. The Dollar was hit hard, which means other currencies gained. Stocks, industrial metals, oil, crypto and foreign stocks were all down the
Before looking at the current extremes, keep in mind that the weight of the evidence on the Market Regime page is bearish. We are in a bear market, and bear market rules apply. Support levels are less likely to hold
With stocks in a bear market, I am looking for alternatives that are less correlated. Bitcoin is an alternative to stocks, but it shows a strong positive correlation to the S&P 500. The chart below shows SPY in blue and
Stocks are in a freefall with selling pressure spreading into industrial metals and other economically sensitive commodities. There are few places to hide in bear markets, and the list of alternatives continues to shrink. Bitcoin, an alternative, is holding up
Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead, but looks increasingly extended. Industrial metals are under pressure as copper turns down after a parabolic move. Agriculture is holding its breakout, while bonds are poised to
Charles Dow identified three market trends. First, the primary trend is the major trend at work. This is the long-term trend. As noted in the Market Regime report, the weight of the evidence is bearish and this applies to the
Short-term, the stock market became oversold in mid March and ripe for a bounce. Longer term, however, the weight of the evidence is bearish and the major index ETFs are in downtrends (SPY, QQQ, RSP). This means we are looking
The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing the worst. Clearly, this is not a positive picture
Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets as it trades near all time highs. Copper is next in line as it goes parabolic and nears overbought levels. Bonds are confused with the
The major index ETFs broke down in March, became oversold and got oversold bounces. Long-term trend reversals remain for SPY, QQQ and XLK. This means the recent bounces are counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. ETFs related to housing, retail and
This is an update for the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicators, which were featured on March 21st. The S&P 500 and S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust indicators became oversold with moves below -20% on March 13th. The black arrows on
Stocks broke down with deep declines into mid March (11-13). These deep declines led to short-term oversold conditions, which primed the pump for the current bounce. At this point, I consider this an oversold bounce, as opposed to a bullish
The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals, which capture a material increase in upside participation. There is, however, more to the indicator because traders can also use the “setup” period to identify oversold conditions. This
Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets with strength transferring to the Gold Miners. The only concern is the overbought condition, which is fast approaching. Copper surged to a new high and
Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that
This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to