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We are still in a bull market, but some risk-on groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading. Interest rate sensitive groups are leading. After hard hits in early September, tech names recovered this week with strong advances. We will
Today’s report starts with the CBM and yield spread to define the broad market environment. Despite bull market conditions, odds are increasing for corrective period. We are seeing relative and absolute weakness in key groups, leadership in defensive groups and
Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify “big bang” moves by showing price change in ATR terms. We can use the price charts to identify big breakouts. Today’s example will show
This page is for subscribers to Chart Trader. It starts with a chart showing the Composite Breadth Model and signals over the last few years. This model defines the environment for stocks: bull market or bear market. We then explain
Today’s report starts with the CBM to define the market. We then address the recent market mood swing as volatility picked up, techs started lagging and defensive groups started leading. Cybersecurity and Fintech are leading within tech and we feature
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a new closing high this week. While this high is certainly bullish and points to upside leadership, the real signal triggered back in early July as the
This report covers the broad market environment and will be updated every Friday. We start with the breadth models to define the broad market environment (bull market or bear market). The first model covers the broader market, while the second
Today’s report starts with short-term overbought conditions, the 12 day surge and the increase in volatility. We then turn to the long-term trends for SPY, QQQ and MAGS. Several tech-related ETFs and tech stocks broke short-term resistance levels and we
This report starts with the leaders over the last ten days and the leaders based on 52-week highs. Large-cap tech stocks led the 10-day surge, but Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Biotech are leading on charts. We then analyze the Healthcare
This report starts with the Healthcare SPDR because it is one of the leading sectors right now. Also notice that the Consumer Staples SPDR, Utilities SPDR and Real Estate SPDR are also leading with new highs this week. Leadership from
This report starts a long-term look at the Nikkei, which started breaking down in July. US stocks rebounded after sharp declines on August 5th, but they have yet to fully recover and remain in short-term downtrends. We will look at
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time
Increasing uncertainty is causing the markets to reprice. SPY, QQQ and IWM hit new highs in July and were priced for the best of all worlds. We then got a shakeup in the presidential race, a weak jobs report and
Selling pressure broadened over the last three days with the broader market (S&P 500 stocks) joining tech-related stocks (Nasdaq 100 stocks) in the sell off. The long-term trends are still up for SPY and QQQ. In addition, the Composite Breadth
QQQ is leading the market lower and weighing on tech stocks. The long-term trend is up and oversold breadth could present an opportunity. Short-term breadth has yet to become oversold and this means we may have further downside first.
This report starts with the short-term breakouts in SPY and QQQ. Battered semiconductor stocks led the surge and we will look at the Semiconductor ETF today. We also cover the Software and Cybersecurity ETFs, which represent
This report starts with the long-term breadth indicators to confirm the bull market. Overall, S&P 500 stocks are stronger than Nasdaq 100 stocks. SPY and QQQ are in the midst of pullbacks and have yet to become oversold. Thus, they
After a big run this year, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 15% from its high and broke its 50-day SMA. On the face of it, a break below this “key” moving average seems like a short-term bearish signal. Such a view,
This report starts with a long-term look at the QQQ chart and the seasonality pattern for the S&P 500. Earnings season is in full gear, but the reactions to these reports is decidedly negative. SPY is in
This report starts with the long-term breadth indicators to confirm the bull market. Overall, S&P 500 stocks are stronger than Nasdaq 100 stocks. Our short-term breadth indicators are also bullish. QQQ is in the midst of a pullback and has