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Market Timing Models – Short-term Test Awaits as Noise Levels Increase

It’s just the second trading day of 2020 and already the markets are setting up for a test. Stock futures are sharply lower as the S&P 500 looks set to open down around 1%. Gold, the Dollar and Treasury bonds are sharply higher as money looks for alternatives. A sharp decline in the S&P 500 could reverse the short-term uptrend and herald the much awaited correction.

Market Timing Models – Short-term Test Awaits as Noise Levels Increase Read More »

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Broad Strength in Equity-Related ETFs and a few Pullbacks

There are plenty of strong uptrends in the core ETF list. In fact, 50 of the 60 ETFs in this core list are in uptrends of some sort. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Technology SPDR (XLK) are in group 1 and in the strongest uptrends. Large-caps and large-cap techs are still the strongest overall.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Broad Strength in Equity-Related ETFs and a few Pullbacks Read More »

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Consumer Discretionary and Precious Metals Come to Life

The strong continue to strengthen and the laggards are leading short-term. Overall, this suggest that the bull market continues to broaden and pick up more converts. The S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and Technology SPDR were leading all year and they simply extended their leads with fresh new highs this week. The energy-related ETFs were lagging all year and then surged over the last five weeks.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Consumer Discretionary and Precious Metals Come to Life Read More »

Market Timing Models – S&P 500 is Extended, but not Yet Frothy

There is not much change in the broad market picture. The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high again this week and extended its uptrend. The long-term trend has been up since February and SPY has been on a tear since early October. Barring a 2.22 point decline today (Friday), the S&P 500 SPDR is set to close higher for 11 of the last 12 weeks. It is an extraordinary run (+9.71% since early October), and shows no signs of slowing.

Market Timing Models – S&P 500 is Extended, but not Yet Frothy Read More »

Market Timing Models – History does not Repeat itself, but it Often Rhymes.

Today’s report will focus on the S&P 500, the current advance and a future scenario. I am focused on the S&P 500, and SPY by extension, because this index is the driving force in the stock market. It accounts for some 80% of the US equity market and is the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks. Small-caps and mid-caps are more likely to follow the S&P 500, not the other way around.

Market Timing Models – History does not Repeat itself, but it Often Rhymes. Read More »

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Leaders Extend Gains as ETFs in Downtrend Get Big Bounces

Strength in the US stock market is broad-based with 25 of the 46 (53%) equity-related ETFs hitting new highs over the last five days (including EFA). Of the 21 ETFs that did not hit new highs, several led the stock market over the last two weeks with big counter-trend bounces. Four energy-related ETFs were up double digits the last 11 days and XLE (+5.83%) is the leading sector over this time period.

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Leaders Extend Gains as ETFs in Downtrend Get Big Bounces Read More »

Market Timing Models – Bull Market Continues to Broaden with More Sectors and Stocks Leading

The major index ETFs extended their breakouts as the bullish forces, which were highlighted last week, dominate heading into year end. Three of three technical forces remain bullish. Two of the three “other” forces turned from rumor to news this week.
Even though I mentioned these fundamental forces last week, the technical forces are what really drive my market stance.

Market Timing Models – Bull Market Continues to Broaden with More Sectors and Stocks Leading Read More »

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Some Rotation Surfaces as Leaders Pull Back and Laggards Bounce

After a big advance in October and November, many ETFs finally succumbed and pulled back. Some of the leading ETFs weakened the last two weeks, while some of the lagging ETFs picked up the slack. The tech-related ETFs led the pullback the last eight days (FINX, IPAY, HACK, SKYY, IGV and FDN).

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Some Rotation Surfaces as Leaders Pull Back and Laggards Bounce Read More »

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Stocks Show Vulnerability as Money Moves into Alternatives

The market finally showed a vulnerable side this week with a sharp pullback on Monday and Tuesday. A corrective period at this stage would be perfectly normal because stocks were up sharply in October and November. We also saw several flag breakouts fail. These failures are not enough to affect the long-term trends

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Stocks Show Vulnerability as Money Moves into Alternatives Read More »

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – SPY, QQQ and Tech ETFs Lead Extension – Flag Breakouts Trigger

The bull market continues to broaden with 23 of 53 equity-related ETFs hitting new highs (56%) this week. Thus, more than half of the equity ETFs hit new highs and this shows broad strength in the stock market. Note that there are 60 ETFs in the “core” list and just 7 are non-equity

Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – SPY, QQQ and Tech ETFs Lead Extension – Flag Breakouts Trigger Read More »

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