There were plenty of 52-week highs this week. SPY (large-caps), QQQ (large-cap techs), MDY (mid-caps) and IJR (small-caps) hit new highs. Five of the eleven sector SPDRs hit new highs this week, while just two equal-weight sectors hit new highs.
It’s just the second trading day of 2020 and already the markets are setting up for a test. Stock futures are sharply lower as the S&P 500 looks set to open down around 1%. Gold, the Dollar and Treasury bonds are sharply higher as money looks for alternatives. A sharp decline in the S&P 500 could reverse the short-term uptrend and herald the much awaited correction.
There are plenty of strong uptrends in the core ETF list. In fact, 50 of the 60 ETFs in this core list are in uptrends of some sort. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Technology SPDR (XLK) are in group 1 and in the strongest uptrends. Large-caps and large-cap techs are still the strongest overall.
The strong continue to strengthen and the laggards are leading short-term. Overall, this suggest that the bull market continues to broaden and pick up more converts. The S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and Technology SPDR were leading all year and they simply extended their leads with fresh new highs this week. The energy-related ETFs were lagging all year and then surged over the last five weeks.
There is not much change in the broad market picture. The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high again this week and extended its uptrend. The long-term trend has been up since February and SPY has been on a tear since early October. Barring a 2.22 point decline today (Friday), the S&P 500 SPDR is set to close higher for 11 of the last 12 weeks. It is an extraordinary run (+9.71% since early October), and shows no signs of slowing.
As you can see from the lists above, there were plenty of 52-week highs this week. SPY (large-caps), QQQ (large-cap techs), MDY (mid-caps) and IWM (small-caps) hit new highs. Six of the eleven sector SPDRs hit new highs this week, while seven equal-weight sectors hit new highs.
Today’s setups feature long-term charts and some big trends to watch as we head into 2020. I am also noting themes on some of the charts. In particular, the Amazon theme is AWS, cloud and its growing delivery business, which is expected to be bigger than UPS or FDX by 2022.
Today’s report will focus on the S&P 500, the current advance and a future scenario. I am focused on the S&P 500, and SPY by extension, because this index is the driving force in the stock market. It accounts for some 80% of the US equity market and is the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks. Small-caps and mid-caps are more likely to follow the S&P 500, not the other way around.
Strength in the US stock market is broad-based with 25 of the 46 (53%) equity-related ETFs hitting new highs over the last five days (including EFA). Of the 21 ETFs that did not hit new highs, several led the stock market over the last two weeks with big counter-trend bounces. Four energy-related ETFs were up double digits the last 11 days and XLE (+5.83%) is the leading sector over this time period.
This week’s video will cover the 60 core ETFs and the short-term trend for SPY. There were 21 new highs in our core list and this shows broad strength in the stock market.
The major index ETFs extended their breakouts as the bullish forces, which were highlighted last week, dominate heading into year end. Three of three technical forces remain bullish. Two of the three “other” forces turned from rumor to news this week.
Even though I mentioned these fundamental forces last week, the technical forces are what really drive my market stance.
After a big advance in October and November, many ETFs finally succumbed and pulled back. Some of the leading ETFs weakened the last two weeks, while some of the lagging ETFs picked up the slack. The tech-related ETFs led the pullback the last eight days (FINX, IPAY, HACK, SKYY, IGV and FDN).
This week’s video will cover the 60 core ETFs, the short-term trend for SPY and some events that could shake the market in the coming weeks. There were more new highs, a materials-related ETF broke out, gold failed and bonds backed off resistance.
Stocks took a hit early this week, but quickly rebounded as bigger bullish forces came into play. Today we will review these bullish forces by starting with the long-term picture for the S&P 500. I will then analyze the short-term uptrend, which survived its first test this week.
The market finally showed a vulnerable side this week with a sharp pullback on Monday and Tuesday. A corrective period at this stage would be perfectly normal because stocks were up sharply in October and November. We also saw several flag breakouts fail. These failures are not enough to affect the long-term trends
This post features the weekend video that walks you through the the 60 ETFs in the core chart list. I also example on the daily S&P 500 chart and the indicators used to define the short-term uptrend.
Uptrends and new highs are bullish. Sorry, but there is no other interpretation. We can debate the degree of bullishness, we can debate overbought conditions and we can debate non-confirming indicators.
The bull market continues to broaden with 23 of 53 equity-related ETFs hitting new highs (56%) this week. Thus, more than half of the equity ETFs hit new highs and this shows broad strength in the stock market. Note that there are 60 ETFs in the “core” list and just 7 are non-equity
This post features chart notes on recent developments in our core ETF list, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs. Today I am singling out four ETFs to watch closely because they look poised to move.
Today we have a mixed of old and new. Some setups from prior weeks are still in play and near their breakout zones. Four of these are in the Healthcare sector, which is the hottest sector in the market right now.
The sky is falling as the S&P 500 fell a whopping .5% the last four days. Small-caps and mid-caps were hammered as the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR fell 1% so far this week and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR declined 1.3%. I am sure that there are probably some good reasons for these miniscule moves. Heck, there are always reasons.