Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are large pockets of weakness within the market. 56.6% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 43.4% are below and in long-term downtrends. Even though this is a rather large swath of the market, the cup
Stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought during strong uptrends. We see this play out in QQQ as it moved above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) several times and continued higher. Bollinger Bands (200,2) are two standard
Stock market performance remains mixed with a high percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading below their 200-day SMAs. This number has yet to exceed 50%, but should be watched because the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors show deterioration. Despite a mixed market, the Healthcare sector is rising above the
There are some interesting developments in the alternative ETF universe. Gold, silver and their respective miners corrected within leading uptrends. This means they are setting up bullish. Bonds got clobbered the last six days, but TLT is also setting up bullish as it tests the prior breakout. The Bitcoin ETF hit a six month low to become
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness with some 45% of S&P 500 components trading below their 200-day SMAs. This makes it a challenging environment for stock picking.
While the weight of the evidence has yet to turn bearish, the market is becoming more split as the pockets of weakness expand. 54.80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which is the lowest percentage since June. This also
While there are concerns with broad market breadth and performance outside of the tech sector, the bull market is not over until QQQ sings. In fact, even a correction is unlikely as long as QQQ and Nasdaq 100 breadth remain strong. Today’s report starts with the influence
QQQ is looking overbought because it closed above the upper Bollinger Band (200,2) twice this week. As noted in Part 1, stocks and ETFs can become overbought and remain overbought in strong uptrends. This is why we need a momentum indicator to signal a bearish shift. This report will first show how to use StochRSI for momentum shifts and then identify the key levels for Nasdaq 100 breadth.
Gold, silver and their respective miners show the same chart characteristics: long-term uptrends, explosive moves from late August to mid October, sharp corrections the last eight days and short-term oversold conditions. We will start with the Gold SPDR (GLD) chart because gold is
These are the charts from my interview with Jim Puplava and Financial Sense on Thursday, October 30thy. Overbought conditions can persist in strong uptrends (SPY, QQQ). MAGS is not yet overbought. Plus XLI, Breadth, IEF, Gold, Copper and Bitcoin.
The Market Regime page defines the stock market environment: bull or bear market. Three trend/breadth models quantify performance for stocks in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Yield spreads capture credit market conditions, while Treasury yield trends reflect Fed policy.
The market environment remains bullish with tech and AI related stocks leading the charge. Today’s report features a stock that fits in both the semiconductor and software groups (Cadence CDNS). We will also cover Tesla, which is part of the Mag7 ETF, another market leader. Attention then turns to an off-price retailer with a breakout (Burlington Stores BURL).
The weight of the evidence remains bullish with the same groups leading the way higher. SPY and QQQ hit new highs to affirm the dominance of large-caps and large-cap techs. Tech, industrials and utilities are the strongest sectors with new highs this month. Within technology, the AI-related ETFs are leading the charge with short-term breakouts last
Trading is all about putting the odds in your favor. When picking stocks, we can improve our odds by staying on the right side of the market and focusing on names in leading sectors and industry groups. Today’s report starts with the market
Today’s report starts with bonds because these safe haven assets are trending higher. Bonds have yet to start outperforming stocks, but traders should watch this relationship for clues on the risk appetite for stocks. Precious metals were rocked this week as gold, silver and their respective
Today’s report features five stock setups and two ETFs. Finding setups during earnings season is a challenge because I try to avoid stocks that are reporting within the next two weeks, and most stocks in the S&P 500 are reporting between now and month end. I am revisiting three prior
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. SPY, QQQ and IWM hit new highs in October and remain in leading uptrends. Around 65% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. Even though this means
Welcome to the Friday Chart Fix! Price action turned volatile in October with one key sector breaking down and another holding up. This bifurcation within the market is par for the course lately. The key, as always, is to focus on the leaders and ignore the laggards. Finance
Metals have been leading the financial markets with massive moves the eleven weeks. SPY (+4%), QQQ (+6.6%) and IWM (+14.10%) sport nice gains since August 1st. These gains, however, are dwarfed by Silver Miners SIL (+65%), Gold Miners GDX (+57.77%), Uranium URA +47.64%) and Silver SLV (+45%). The Gold SPDR (GLD) is in the middle
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Today’s report features two stocks from the Consumer Staples sector, two from the Industrials sector and two from the Technology sector. This is a relatively balanced approach that may help should the market turn volatile in the coming weeks.
It is still a bull market, but some key groups are under pressure. We start with a performance chart showing the percentage gain/loss for 15 ETFs. The right side of the chart shows the performance ranking. The Gold
Welcome to the Friday Chart Fix! Today’s report starts with the leading uptrend in QQQ. Large-caps tech stocks may seem ripe for a correction, but there are no signs of weakness on the price chart. Even though QQQ and the MAG7 are leading, there is strength in other areas with five healthcare stocks outperforming six of the MAG7. This report concludes with
Precious metals and gold-silver miners are outperforming tech and AI ETFs in 2025. Who would have thought? The chart below shows year-to-date performance for SPY, QQQ, some tech ETFs and some metals ETFs. SPY and QQQ are up 15 and 20 percent year-to-date, respectively. Even so, the lowly Copper ETF is outperforming these two with a