Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
SPY, QQQ and XLK are in uptrends with the mid-late August lows marking first support. Support breaks would reverse the short-term uptrends and argue for a corrective period.
Precious metals continue to lead the financial markets as gold, silver and their respective miners hit new highs. The recent breakouts were not a surprise because bullish continuation patterns formed in August. We are also seeing continued strength in Base Metals, as well as a recent breakout in Copper. Uranium extended on its breakout, but Bitcoin remains in corrective mode.
This report features stocks with tradable setups or breakouts. Each chart features an analysis checklist covering the trend, relative performance, condition, pattern at work, re-evaluation level and special considerations. Uptrends and bullish continuation patterns are the maintain, but reversal candidates are also featured when appropriate.
Even though stocks are ripe for a corrective period, the weight of the evidence supports a bull market. As such, a pullback would be a considered as a correction within the bull market. SPY is in a leading uptrend, 60+ percent of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads are narrow. In addition, short-term rates are falling, which suggest a dovish Fed.
The long-term trend is up for the major index ETFs, breadth indicators are majority bullish and yield spreads remain narrow. These three items support the bull market for stocks. Short-term, however, signs are emerging that a correction could be coming. First, QQQ and the Technology sector show relative weakness the last five weeks. Second, stocks
Welcome to the Friday Chart Fix. Today’s report starts with the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMAs, which hit a multi-month high as uptrends expand. The Technology SPDR is above its 200-day, but consolidating the last four weeks as it digests big gains. Within tech, the Cybersecurity ETF broke out after a pullback and a top component
The Market Regime page defines the stock market environment: bull or bear market. Three trend/breadth models quantify performance for stocks in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Yield spreads capture credit market conditions, while Treasury yield trends reflect Fed policy.
Today’s report starts with the 7-10Yr TBond ETF, which is extending higher after its June breakout. Despite this strength, inflation appears to be an issue because the Inflation-Protected Bond ETF is stronger. Attention then turns to metals with gold in a bullish consolidation and miners hitting new highs. Base metals are
SPY remains a leader with fresh new highs, but QQQ is still below its mid August high and XLK remains flat this month. Even though the latter two are still in long-term uptrends, they show relative weakness short-term and this could foreshadow a corrective period for big tech. Small-caps, mid-caps, Finance and Banks are
Today’s report features ten stocks with uptrends and trading setups or recent breakouts. These charts cover 15 months of price action in the main window and two indicators. The price-relative (AAPL/RSP ratio) measures relative performance and %B identifies short-term oversold conditions. The main focus is on price action since the April low and the
Analysis starts with the long-term trends and support levels for SPY and QQQ. Upside participation expanded last week as the percentage of stocks above the 200-day surge. New highs are the next item to watch. Breadth improved as new leaders emerged and tech ETFs corrective. Watch XLK, SMH and MAGS for clues on the correction. There are also three stock setups.
A rotation is underway in the stock market. Smalls and mids are starting to outperform large-caps and large-techs. Consumer Discretionary and Finance are starting to outperform Technology and Industrials. Keep in mind that these rotations started in late August, which means they are still short-term. Tech ETFs are still outperforming long-term and remain in long-term uptrends. However
Stocks moved sharply higher on Friday with small-caps and mid-caps leading the charge. Friday’s big advance is not the first big move for these two groups. They also moved sharply higher on August 12th and 13th. August is shaping up to be a big month for small-caps and mid-caps. This report focuses on the big four
It was a long time coming, but the Broad Breadth Model finally turned bullish as small-caps and mid-caps surged on Friday. These groups were weighing on the S&P 1500 breadth indicators. Not any more. The bullish signal means strength within the market is broadening and the systematic strategies are active.
The weight of the evidence was already majority bullish for stocks and this evidence improved as two S&P 1500 breadth indicators triggered bullish. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 breadth indicators were already majority bullish. Strength in small-caps and mid-caps lifted S&P 1500 stocks this week. In addition to bullish breadth
Welcome to your Friday Chart Fix. Signs of correction and rotation emerged this week as money moved out of tech-related groups and into defensive groups. We will put this week’s rotation into perspective with some year-to-date performance metrics. Nasdaq 100 stocks are a dominant force
These are the charts from my interview with Cris Sheridan and Financial Sense on Friday, August 22nd. A correction and market rotation started in August as money moved out of tech groups and into defensive groups. QQQ and Nasdaq 100 are the dominant force in the market right now. As such, a correction in QQQ
The Fed begins its Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole today and the messages from this meeting could create sparks in the intermarket area. Interest rates and bonds are especially sensitive to Fed-related news. This extends to the Dollar, Gold, stocks and possibly even crypto. I
There is a correction underway with tech stocks weighing on the broader market, especially SPY and QQQ. The Technology sector accounts for a whopping 33.72% of SPY and the S&P 500. Financials are a distant second at 13.67%. We then have Consumer Discretionary
Today’s report starts by comparing the current March-August sequence with the March-August period in 2020. History does not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes. We then turn to four tech-related ETF that are very extended and ripe for a correction. The Regional Bank ETF helped small-caps last week and it is important that KRE holds its surge. We close with the Gold SPDR, which turned real quiet the last six days.
The stock market remains in risk-on mode, but the bull run is selective. SPY and QQQ tagged new highs in mid August. Even though mid-caps and small-caps surged last week, IJH and IJR remain well below their November highs and continue to lag large-caps. The new high list shows leadership concentrated in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Narrow
Welcome to your Friday Chart Fix. Today’s report starts with year-to-date performance for QQQ and its equal-weight brother (QQEW). We then look at the leaders within QQQ and single out Alphabet because it is close to a new high. Attention then turns to small and mid caps because they led the market this week. New highs are still sparse within the space. We then show a ranking table to find the groups with the most new highs. And finally,
We are seeing leading uptrends in ETFs related to defensive groups: Utilities, Infrastructure and Telecom. All three hit new highs in August and have strong uptrends working. Elsewhere gold is stuck in a trading range with a classic pattern taking shape and Bitcoin returned to the scene of its prior breakout.
Small-caps came to life this week with big moves the last two days. These moves keep the uptrends alive for the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF. Both were oversold and at support just below these surges. We will also look at an oversold condition in the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator on August 1st. Even though these moves are impressive, small-caps trade more erratic