Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are
Stocks surged the last four days with another big move. It seems that there is no such thing as “average” anymore as we are seeing big moves both up and down. The chart below shows SPY with the 5% zigzag in red. This red line only
It has been a rough four weeks for stocks and oil, but the energy-related ETFs held up relatively well and remain in uptrends. The PerfChart below shows performance for SPY, oil, the DB Energy ETF (DBE) and
Energy-based ETFs Hold Up Despite Weakness in Stocks and Oil (Free) Read More »
After becoming very oversold on Tuesday, stocks bounced on Wednesday with the major index ETFs gaining around 2%. Today’s report will put these bounces into context. We will show the difference between bullish setups in harmony with the bigger force and
Stock market volatility remains high as strong bouts of buying pressure are answered with strong bouts of selling pressure. Strong buying pressure and broadening upside participation turned the thrust models bullish in August, but these signals
The pickings within the stock market are slim and the pickings outside the stock market are also slim. There are far more downtrends out there than uptrends and this limits the choices for trend-following and those looking for pullbacks within uptrends. SPY and QQQ are
The short-term trends for the big three are down (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and we are in a bear market. Over the last two weeks, the short-term trend (down) aligned with the long-term trend (down). This is a powerful combination
So-called Defensive ETFs are Not Immune to Broad Market Swings (Free) Read More »
SPY is testament to the volatile world we live in right now. The ETF surged some 14% in 22 days (.64% per day) from July 22nd until August 16th and then fell 8% the last 11 days (.73% per day). The fall, so far, is sharper than the rise. The reversal occurred with
Stocks moved sharply lower the last two weeks with ten of the eleven sector SPDRs declining and almost all industry group ETFs falling. Energy-related ETFs and the Uranium ETF were exceptions. The long-term trend for
Stocks were hit hard again over the last two days and are now short-term oversold. While short-term oversold conditions could give way to an oversold bounce, we saw some important failures near falling 200-day SMAs over the last two weeks. These failures are long-term negative so I would not read too much into an oversold bounce
Traders can improve the odds of success by focusing on ETFs in leading uptrends. TrendInvestorPro identifies such ETFs with a table that shows Trend Composite signals and the 52-week range
Improving Odds by Focusing on ETFs with Leading Uptrends (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks, but SPY became short-term oversold after a sharp decline the last five days. Even though this could give way to a bounce, the bears reasserted themselves and risk looks above average for stocks. Today’s report will
The Composite Breadth Model hit its moment of truth and failed to turn bullish as stocks moved sharply lower the last five days. Correlations rose as the vast majority of stock-based ETFs declined. Only energy-based
Stocks fell sharply the last two days and these declines were enough to reverse the short-term uptrends in many stock-based ETFs. In particular, the short-term uptrends reversed for SPY and QQQ. This is a big deal because the Composite Breadth Model was
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged to its falling 200-day SMA here in August and even edged above this key level intraday on Tuesday. Even though the ETF is close to crossing above the 200-day, chartists would be better off
Quantifying the Battle for the 200-day – It’s Elementary (Free) Read More »
The short-term uptrends are dominating the landscape, or at least this seems to be the case. SPY is below its falling 200-day SMA, but is up some 16% from its mid June low. It is a strong move that has yet to be reversed. In fact, there are dozens of ETFs with similar characteristics:
The thrust that began in mid July extended into mid August and triggered bullish signals in the Thrust Breadth Models. The Trend Models, however, remain bearish, as does the 5/200 day SMA cross for the S&P 500. At best, the market is split and more work is needed to turn bullish. At worst, the market is overbought
Market and ETF Report – SPY Nears 200-day, IWM Triggers, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Agriculture ETF Breaks Out (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in the midst of a strong advance since mid July as it became “overbought” on July 20th and remains overbought. Today’s article will show how to measure overbought and oversold levels using StochClose, which is a version of the Stochastic Oscillator that uses closing prices.
Overbought and Staying Overbought (Free) Read More »
Stocks surged on reports that inflation was less than expected. Bonds did not. This is interesting because bonds are supposed to be more vulnerable to inflationary pressures. The news, however, is just the reported news we can never be sure of the true reasons for the price moves.
