The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week, and last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF and relative strength in
The 10-yr Treasury Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps (Free) Read More »
The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising
The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week. Last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Is there a correlation here? Today’s commentary will look at the relationship between the 10-yr Treasury Yield and three relative performance charts
The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest
We have all heard of trend-following and many us employ trend indicators in our strategies. But how do these indicators actually perform over an extended period of time and in varying market conditions? Let’s look at an example.
Trend-Following: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (Free) Read More »
The bull market is clear and present with new highs in large-caps, large-cap techs, mid-caps and small-caps. Micro-caps are the only missing component, but IWC is very close. Participation continues to expand with breakouts in the Industrials
The Market Regime remains bullish and participation broadened over the last six weeks. SPY and QQQ were already doing their part with clear uptrends and new highs throughout the year. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) broke out of a long triangle in late October
The October run continued into November with small-caps breaking out and participation expanding. Some of the old leaders, however, are still leading with new highs in QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs. The setups and breakouts from early-mid October are bearing fruit and ETFs with big runs the last four to five weeks are in the trend-monitoring phase.
Moving averages are classic trend-following indicators and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. This article will put the 200-day to the test using the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).
Trend Indicator Turns Bullish for IWM: What should we Expect? (Free) Read More »
Stocks continued their October run with SPY and QQQ closing at new highs. Mid-caps and small-caps are still struggling, but their charts are more bullish than bearish. Some of the old industry ETFs corrected over the
This commentary is an addition to Thursday’s ETF report. ETFs in today’s commentary formed long corrective patterns from spring to fall and made various breakout attempts here in October. The Transports ETF is the leader with a strong move above the August high. The copper and base metals
The Market Regime remains bullish with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs on Thursday. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) hit new highs Monday-Tuesday and then fell back pretty hard on Wednesday, before bouncing on Thursday. New highs are clearly more bullish than bearish. The noise level is
Earnings season is in full swing and this is leading to a little more volatility. Volatility mostly affects individual stocks, but it can also affect market cap weighted ETFs when the big components make big moves. Overall, the market regime remains bullish with fresh new highs in SPY, RSP and MDY. There are not
The Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) came to life here in October with a six percent surge that could signal the beginning of the end for a long correction. IFRA underperformed from May to mid September, but is now
Get the Jump by Timing the Swing within the Pattern (Free) Read More »
Stocks continued their October run with the S&P 500 SPDR, S&P 500 EW ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR hitting new highs. Participation is clearly broadening and this is reflected in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above selective moving averages. There were also 17 new uptrend signals via the StochClose indicator.
The Biotech ETF (IBB) is a rather peculiar ETF because of the performance differentials among its components and the changing of the weights. Moderna (7.84%) and BioNTech (3.82%) account for almost
Biotech SpotLight – Top Stocks, IBB and XBI (Premium) Read More »
The Market Regime remains bullish and participation broadened here in October. The Finance SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit new highs in October, and the Technology SPDR ended its correction with a breakout. Broadening participation comes from the Industrials SPDR and
SPY and QQQ ended their corrections with breakouts last week and this is bullish for the broader market. Small-caps (IJR) are also making a breakout bid as strength within the market broadens. In particular, we are seeing leadership from ETFs associated with industrial
Stocks surged again on Thursday, but this week’s surge was different than the Thursday’s surge the prior week. SPY and QQQ followed through after the open and S&P 500 breadth showed broad participation. Small-caps also bounced, but the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR
Stocks surged for the second Thursday in as many weeks, but this Thursday’s surge was a lot different than the previous week. This week’s surge featured a strong open and strong close as well as the strongest breadth in four months. What does it mean going forward? Let’s investigate.
Follow Through with A Big Participation Pop (Free) Read More »
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) followed through on last week’s gap with a gap-surge on Thursday. In contrast to last week’s gap, SPY moved higher after the strong open on Thursday and formed a long white candlestick. The open is near