Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
It is important to understand the ebb and flow of the equity curve when trading a strategy. How long is the strategy flat or down? How often do we see strong momentum runs? How often does the strategy experience double-digit drawdowns? How can we take advantage of drawdown? We will answer these questions and more.
Understanding Equity Curve Performance and Setting Realistic Expectation (Premium) Read More »
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is lagging the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as it broke the 200-day SMA and confirmed a bearish pattern. SMH is holding up because its top component remains strong. Nevertheless SMH is at a moment of truth ahead of a big earnings report from Nvidia.
A Tale of Two Semiconductor ETFs – Why is SOXX Weaker than SMH? (Free) Read More »
Stocks went on a tear the last eight days, but most of these moves were simply extensions of existing uptrends. Nevertheless, many stocks and ETFs became very overbought short-term. These include KBE, IGV, SKYY, FINX and CIBR. We also see the market pricing in policy shifts in Healthcare (XLV) and Defense (ITA), as well as the prospects of tariffs (CPER, DBB). Despite overbought conditions, it is a bull market we will highlight three stocks setting up: DDOG, CSX and CCEP.
Buying stocks that seem overbought is difficult, but this is often required when trading a momentum-rotation strategy. By design, these strategies buy the strongest stocks and many seem “overbought”. Momentum is all about buying high and selling higher. This report will test the original Rotation Investor strategies with the addition of an overbought filter. In other words, we will avoid stocks that are overbought. Does this filter help or hurt performance?
Do Overbought Filters Improve Performance for Momentum Rotation Strategies? (Premium) Read More »
The election has come and gone, and the market trends remain the same. The major index ETFs were in uptrends well before the election, breadth was strong throughout September-October and yield spreads showed confidence. This broad market trio was, and is, bullish. Tech-related ETFs extended on their breakouts and we will feature three AI stocks. Commodities were all over the place so we will revisit industrial metals and copper. Analysis includes VRTX, FCX, COPX and DBA.
There is only one way to trade in a long-term uptrend: long. Forget about picking tops and breaks below short-term moving averages. Leaning bearish within a long-term uptrend is not a profitable strategy. Instead, we should lean bullish and use oversold conditions to our advantage. In a long-term uptrend, I am only interested in
Finding and Trading Oversold Conditions within Long-term Uptrends (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but a correction is underway as Treasury yields surge and semiconductors weigh on the largest sector. Semis account for 35.57% of the Technology SPDR and this sector accounts for 32.24% of the S&P 500. We will review the long-term breadth indicators and show some short-term breadth indicators to watch for oversold conditions. Names hitting bullish setup zones include XLV, GEHC, AMGN, ITA, INDA, CPER and COPX.
There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with two proven concepts: trend and momentum. These are perhaps the two most powerful forces in the market. The idea is relatively simple: stay on the right side of the trend and focus on the leaders. This is basically dual-momentum. Starting our process with these two steps
Two Indicators to Start your Process and Improve Your Edge Read More »
Everyone has a trading plan until they go into drawdown. The Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies are off to a great start here in 2024. This is the easy part. Don’t forget that RISK is always lurking in the equity markets and this is something we must always take into account. There is no reward without risk.
How to Start Trading a Systematic Strategy – Good Times and Bad Read More »
The Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies started out with a bang this year and produced big gains in the first three months. Market action then turned mixed with tech-related stocks falling sharply. The Nasdaq 100 strategy moved into a deep drawdown the last five weeks (NDX update here). The S&P 500 strategy is holding up well because
Diversification Benefits – Recency Bias – Dealing with Drawdowns – Tweaks Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is at +5, the vast majority of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads remain narrow. Short-term, we could see some headwinds and volatility because the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged and the election looms. We will cover the surge in the 10yr Yield, but take a pass on the election.
This page explains the System Trader offering at TrendInvestorPro. We cover the strategy reports, signal pages, articles page, publishing schedule and tools of the trade.
Getting Started with System Trader! Read More »
This page explains the Premium Services at TrendInvestorPro. We cover the publishing/update schedule, navigation links, our philosophy and the tools of the trade.
Getting Started with Premium Services! Read More »
Today’s report starts with signs of broadening participation as mid-caps perk up. SPY hit another new high, but QQQ and semis remain below their summer highs. Large-cap techs are also showing some fatigue. We then compare SOXX and SMH, cover the leading tech ETFs and highlight the breakout in Bitcoin. We finish with two stocks: HPE (data centers) and MLM (construction materials).
The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is resuming the lead as it surged to new highs this past week. It is important to note that CIBR began its leadership role a lot earlier because it hit a new high in late August. Today’s report will analyze the recent breakout and suggest some possibilities in the future.
Cybersecurity ETF Comes to Life with New Trending Phase (Free) Read More »
Today’s report starts with strong breadth, the plunge in yield spreads and fresh highs in SPY. Tech-related ETFs are leading in October as triangle breakouts extend (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and new highs are tagged (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail setups in the Healthcare (XLV), Palladium (PALL) and Biotech (IBB). Other Symbols Covered: VRTX, AMGN, AKAM and MU.
Here is some sample charts and analysis from our reports. Reports are posted Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays by 8AM ET.
Chart Trader – Sample Report Read More »
Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Tech-related ETFs are perking up with some triangle breakouts (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and some new highs (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail short-term setups in the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Palladium ETF (PALL). Other Symbols Covered: ILMN, INCY, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MRVL
Today’s report starts with the weight of the evidence for stocks. We look at the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Attention then turns the patterns in play for XLK, SOXX and MAGS, as well as four tech ETFs hitting new highs. China stole the show last week so we also analyze the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), copper and base metals.
This report will show how to find bullish setup zones for trading pullbacks within the bigger uptrend. This is trading in the direction of the bigger uptrend. We are only focused on uptrends and bullish setups. In addition, there are two requirements: the broad market trend must be up and the stock must be
