Bond Bear Market – Gold and Miner Breakouts – Agriculture and Agribiz Setups

The Technology SPDR accounts for 37.5% of the S&P 500, which makes it the biggest sector in the S&P 500, by far. Finance is a distant second at 12.3%. Semiconductors account for around 45% of the Technology sector, which suggests that semiconductors account for around 16% of the S&P 500, more than the Finance sector. Semiconductors are a major force in the market-cap weighed universe. With that in mind, today’s report will focus on semiconductors, memory and AI. $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $EWY $MU $SNDK $STX $AIQ $ARTY $DTCR $IDGT $UFOX $IYZ

Today’s report starts with the broad market ETFs and then dives into energy. Oil surged the last three days and could be forming a bullish triangle. Energy ETFs are leading as the Energy SPDR broke out on a long and short term basis. Analysis extends into ETFs related to oil services, exploration & production, natural gas and MLPs. $SPY $RSP $QQQ $XLK $USL $XLE $OIH $XOP $FCG $AMLP

The stock market continues to click on all cylinders with ETFs related to small-caps, mid-caps and equal-weight hitting new highs. QQQ and XLK are not far behind after big breakout moves the last four days. Today’s report focuses on the biotech ETFs as they forge short-term setups after new highs. With biotech, Gilead recaptured its 200-day SMA and Vertex is firming in a Bullish Setup Zone. $IBB $XBI $GILD $VRTX

Large-caps led the market over the last three days with SPY breaking triangle resistance. QQQ also surged, but remains just short of a breakout. Today’s report focus on the Technology SPDR and the ETFs in the AI stack. These include semiconductors, broad AI, data center REITs and connectivity. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $IDGT $DTCR $IYZ $UFOX

The Gold SPDR faces strong headwinds with a strong Dollar and rising short-term rates, but I am seeing a potentially bullish setup on the price chart as GLD firms near a key retracement. Copper and Base Metals are up year-to-date and forming bullish patterns, while the Copper Miners ETF is firming in a Bullish Setup Zone. $GLD $CPER $DBB $COPX

Today’s report looks for life within the technology sector (sans semiconductors). Yes, there are signs of life. The Software iShares and SPDR surged off support zones the last two days. Cloud Computing joined with a surge off the 200-day SMA. Elsewhere, the Medical Devices ETF broke triple bottom resistance and the Telecom ETF is setting up. $IGV $XSW $SKYY $IHI $IYZ

SPY is stuck in a trading range because of group rotations under the surface. Since June, money moved out of tech, communication services and consumer discretionary. This money found its way into industrials, healthcare and finance. The fate of SPY hinges on QQQ, tech and semis. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $NVDA

The Utilities SPDR is holding up relatively well since June as money rotates out of the Technology SPDR, Consumer Discretionary SPDR and Communication Services SPDR. These three are down more than 5% since June (36 trading days), while the Utilities SPDR sports a 3.40% gain. There is also promising action on the price chart as XLU holds its wedge breakout and shows strong breadth. This report will also highlight two stocks within the sector. $XLU $CEG $VST

The Aerospace/Defense and Infrastructure ETFs are correcting within long-term uptrends and moderately oversold. I see broad strength within infrastructure and mixed performance within aerospace-defense. Copper and based metals are leading within the commodity space and the Copper Miners ETF is setting up bullish. $ITA $IFRA $CPER $DBB $COPX

The stock market moved into corrective mode over the last few weeks as the major index ETFs traded sideways. QQQ and SPY consolidated since June, while small-caps (IJR) and mid-caps consolidated in July. Software ETFs show relative strength as bullish setups emerge in AI ETFs. $SPY $RSP $QQQ $XLK $IGV $XSW $AIQ $ARTY $DTCR $IDGT $SMH $SOXX $DRAM

The bull market remains in place with rotations under the surface. Tech led the way higher in April-May, but took a backseat since June and corrected. After massive advances, tech stocks are entitled to a corrective period. Other sectors picked up the slack as finance, industrials and healthcare moved higher. This means SPY is basically flat since June as tech weakness is offset with strength elsewhere. Thus, SPY and QQQ remain in corrective mode, as are the AI ETFs (AIQ, ARTY). Utilities are strong since June as XLU extends on its breakout and energy ETFs turned up in July. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $XLV $KRE $PBW $XBI $MOO $XLU $XLE $XOP $OIH $FCG

Today’s report targets QQQ, the tech sector and the semiconductor industry. Tech is the biggest sector in SPY and QQQ, while semiconductors account for around half of the tech sector. QQQ and XLK are in correction mode, while SMH and SOXX pulled back over the last two weeks. All four are still in long-term utprends and bullish setups could be emerging. We finish with two stocks: Nvidia and Broadcom. $QQQ $XLK $AIQ $SMH $SOXX $NVDA $AVGO

There was a clear rotation in June as money moved out of large-cap tech and into industrials, finance and healthcare. Small-caps are also outperforming large-caps and breadth continues to improve within the S&P 500. At this point, relative weakness in XLK and QQQ looks more like a correction after a strong advance. I am watching the pennants in XLK and QQQ for the next directional signals. $SPY $QQQ $XLK

This report focuses on the energy sector, which led the market from January to March and lagged from April to June. Energy is still up 20% year-to-date and in a long-term uptrend. Moreover, XLE and three industry group ETFs are trading in Bullish Setup Zones. These are areas to watch for the end of the correction and a resumption of the bigger uptrend. $XLE $XOP $OIH $FCG

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Some 63% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, new highs are outpacing new lows and yield spreads remain narrow. Money rotated out of tech in June as XLK fell and QQQ consolidated. Industrials, Healthcare, Utilities and Finance picked up the slack. Today’s setups are in Space, Clean Energy, Solar and Telecom. $SPY $QQQ $IJR $IJH $SOXX $XLK $AIQ $DTCR $XLV $XLI $XLF $XLU $ITA $UFO $PBW $TAN $IYZ

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but several tech groups are showing relative weakness here in June. Semiconductors are still strong with new highs again on Monday. However, SMH and SOXX are very extended and ripe for a rest. Tech is the biggest sector in the S&P 500 and semis are the biggest industry group within tech. The market is very dependent on one group right now. $SPY $QQQ $IJH $IJR $XLK $AIQ $DTCR $SMH $SOXX $XLI $XLF $XLU $XLV $KRE $KBE $IAI $ITA $IFRA $XBI $IBB

The weight of the evidence has been bullish since the early April surge. Despite disruptions in the Middle East, high oil prices and rising interest rates, stocks stayed bullish throughout April-May and remain bullish here in June. Clearly, the stock market is looking past current events, as it always does. $XLK $SMH $SOXX $AIQ $DCTR $XLI $ITA $XLB $IFRA $IBB $XBI

Today’s report will focus on the Mag7 ETF and Semiconductors ($MAGS, $SOXX, $SMH). Hyperscalers drive AI spending and semiconductors are the main beneficiary. MAGS shows relative weakness and the semiconductor ETFs are extremely stretched. Keep in mind that semiconductors account for 48% of the Technology SPDR and tech accounts for 37.26% of SPY.

There are signs of money is moving into groups related to the finance and healthcare sectors. The Finance SPDR, Broker-Dealer ETF and Bank ETFs are breaking out with strong moves the last five days. Within healthcare, the biotech ETFs are setting up with bullish consolidation patterns. Even the lowly Medical Devices ETF is perking up with a double bottom and an bullish Aroon cross. $XLF, $IAI, $KRE, $KBE, $ITA, $IHI, $XBI, $IBB

SPY and QQQ fell sharply on Friday with outsized declines. The 1-day percentage losses were the highest since January, scene of another character change. While the weight of the evidence remains bullish and SPY/QQQ remain in uptrends, this character change could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market and a rotation into other groups. $SPY $QQQ $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $RSP