Hyperscaler Debt – MAGS Lags – Overextended Semis – Software Volatility

There are signs of money is moving into groups related to the finance and healthcare sectors. The Finance SPDR, Broker-Dealer ETF and Bank ETFs are breaking out with strong moves the last five days. Within healthcare, the biotech ETFs are setting up with bullish consolidation patterns. Even the lowly Medical Devices ETF is perking up with a double bottom and an bullish Aroon cross. $XLF, $IAI, $KRE, $KBE, $ITA, $IHI, $XBI, $IBB

SPY and QQQ fell sharply on Friday with outsized declines. The 1-day percentage losses were the highest since January, scene of another character change. While the weight of the evidence remains bullish and SPY/QQQ remain in uptrends, this character change could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market and a rotation into other groups. $SPY $QQQ $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $RSP

Today’s report starts with our weight-of-the-evidence charts, and the evidence is bullish. We project a path forward for $SPY and $QQQ, and highlight the breakouts in $RSP, $IJH and $IJR (equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps). Attention then turns to setup consolidations in Industrials ($XLI), Communication Services ($XLC) and Finance ($XLF). We also feature breakouts in the Aerospace & Defense ETF ($ITA) and Broker Dealer & Exchanges ETF ($IAI).

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks as the bull market shows signs of broadening. The S&P 500 EW ETF hit a new high, while small-caps and mid-caps turned up. $IJH $IJR $RSP $XLV $IBB $XLI $ITA $SKYY

The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF (IJH) are setting up with wedge/flag breakouts and short-term breadth looks poised to break out for confirmation. $IJR $IJH $SMLA50R $MIDA50R

Today’s report focuses on five ETFs. Healthcare and Natural Resources are setting up bullish. Finance failed at its 200-day. The Materials sector failed to hold its breakout as Gold Miners broke down. $XLV $XLF $XLB $GDX $IGE

Even though we are in a bull market and the cup is half full, there are clearly risks out there. Leadership is narrow and key groups are lagging. Tech and energy are leading. $RSPD $ITB $XRT $DBA $USL $UST10Y $SPY $QQQ $XLK $SOXX $IGV $MSFT $XLE $OIH $AMLP $FCG $ITA

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but three indicators suggest that semiconductors are extremely overbought and some key groups are lagging. Symbols: $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DBA $ITB $RSPD $XRT $XLK $SMH $XLI $XLB $ITA $IGE $XLE $FCG

The evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are still sizable pockets of weakness in some key groups. For now, the AI complex and energy are leading. Symbols: $SPY $QQQ $RSP $UST10Y $DBA $USL $XLE $FCG $AMLP $MOO $IBB $XBI $IGE

This is a follow-up report on the PPO-Aroon strategy. We are featuring two ETFs with bullish Aroon signals this past week and three with bullish setups. All five are in long-term uptrends and they recently corrected within these uptrends…

$XLU $XLP $SDY $ITA $GLD

Evidence remains bullish, but oil and interest rates weigh on parts of the market. AI complex leads, breakouts in cloud and cybersecurity. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $IJH $XLK $XLI $XLB $XLE $XLU $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $SIXG $IYZ $IDGT $DTCR $TAN $CIBR $SKYY

Stocks went from risk-off in March to risk-on in April as QQQ and XLK surged 12% and 16%. Blame is on semiconductors and AI related ETFs. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $IJH $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $XLK $XLE $FCG $AMLP $TAN

emis and AI names led a sharp rebound in the stock market over the last 11 trading days. QQQ and XLK went from downtrend signals to … $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $XLK, $AIQ, $SMH, $SOXX, $PBW, $IBB, $XBI, $GLD, $GDX, $CPER, $DBB

Stocks fell short of a Zweig Breadth Thrust with the oversold bounce as it hits a moment of truth. Will the market continue to channel March 2025? $SPY $QQQ $WTIC $XLV $XLB $XLI $XLP $SMH $SOXX $ITA $PBWE $IFRA $GRID $IBB $XBI

The stock market continues to show similarities with March 2025. SPY broke its 200-day, 50+ percent of stocks are in downtrends and yield spreads widened. Symbols covered: $SPY $QQQ $STIP, $WTIC, $XLV, $XLU, $IFRA, $SMH

Despite a flurry of headlines before the open on Monday, the macro situation remains unchanged. Interest rates are trending higher, oil is trading 40% … Symbols: $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $XLK, $OIH, $CIBR, $UFO, $AIQ, $ARTY, $SMH, $ITA, $PBW

Despite some macro headwinds and a war with Iran, the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Stocks fell sharply in March, however … Symbols: $WTIC, $UST10Y, $SPY, $QQQ, $XLK, $AIQ, $ARTY, $XLC, $XLB, $ITA, $ARKX

Just like March 2025, volatility is rearing its ugly head. Oil surged above its 2025 highs, bonds are not offering safe haven and small-caps were crushed. Large-cap techs, however…Symbols: $SPY, $QQQ, $XLK, $AIQ, $ARTY, $SMH, $SOXX, $XLV, $IBB, $TAN, $ICLN

The market profile was defensive before the war, and remains defensive. Healthcare, Staples, Utilities, Defense and Infrastructure are in, while Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Finance are out $SPY, $QQQ, $IEF, $WTIC, $UUP, $MAGS, $AIQ, $XLK, $KBWB, $ITB, XHB

There are extraordinary splits within the stock market, but I do not see evidence of a bear market. Software, cloud, fintech and cybersecurity were hammered over… Symbols: $SPY, $QQQ, $MAGS, $XLK, $XLV, $XLP, $XLU, $XLY, $IHI, $XHE, $IBB, $XBI, $ARKG