QQQ, Tech and Semis Correct within Uptrends – Nvidia and Broadcom Test 200-day

There was a clear rotation in June as money moved out of large-cap tech and into industrials, finance and healthcare. Small-caps are also outperforming large-caps and breadth continues to improve within the S&P 500. At this point, relative weakness in XLK and QQQ looks more like a correction after a strong advance. I am watching the pennants in XLK and QQQ for the next directional signals. $SPY $QQQ $XLK

This report focuses on the energy sector, which led the market from January to March and lagged from April to June. Energy is still up 20% year-to-date and in a long-term uptrend. Moreover, XLE and three industry group ETFs are trading in Bullish Setup Zones. These are areas to watch for the end of the correction and a resumption of the bigger uptrend. $XLE $XOP $OIH $FCG

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Some 63% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, new highs are outpacing new lows and yield spreads remain narrow. Money rotated out of tech in June as XLK fell and QQQ consolidated. Industrials, Healthcare, Utilities and Finance picked up the slack. Today’s setups are in Space, Clean Energy, Solar and Telecom. $SPY $QQQ $IJR $IJH $SOXX $XLK $AIQ $DTCR $XLV $XLI $XLF $XLU $ITA $UFO $PBW $TAN $IYZ

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but several tech groups are showing relative weakness here in June. Semiconductors are still strong with new highs again on Monday. However, SMH and SOXX are very extended and ripe for a rest. Tech is the biggest sector in the S&P 500 and semis are the biggest industry group within tech. The market is very dependent on one group right now. $SPY $QQQ $IJH $IJR $XLK $AIQ $DTCR $SMH $SOXX $XLI $XLF $XLU $XLV $KRE $KBE $IAI $ITA $IFRA $XBI $IBB

The weight of the evidence has been bullish since the early April surge. Despite disruptions in the Middle East, high oil prices and rising interest rates, stocks stayed bullish throughout April-May and remain bullish here in June. Clearly, the stock market is looking past current events, as it always does. $XLK $SMH $SOXX $AIQ $DCTR $XLI $ITA $XLB $IFRA $IBB $XBI

Today’s report will focus on the Mag7 ETF and Semiconductors ($MAGS, $SOXX, $SMH). Hyperscalers drive AI spending and semiconductors are the main beneficiary. MAGS shows relative weakness and the semiconductor ETFs are extremely stretched. Keep in mind that semiconductors account for 48% of the Technology SPDR and tech accounts for 37.26% of SPY.

There are signs of money is moving into groups related to the finance and healthcare sectors. The Finance SPDR, Broker-Dealer ETF and Bank ETFs are breaking out with strong moves the last five days. Within healthcare, the biotech ETFs are setting up with bullish consolidation patterns. Even the lowly Medical Devices ETF is perking up with a double bottom and an bullish Aroon cross. $XLF, $IAI, $KRE, $KBE, $ITA, $IHI, $XBI, $IBB

SPY and QQQ fell sharply on Friday with outsized declines. The 1-day percentage losses were the highest since January, scene of another character change. While the weight of the evidence remains bullish and SPY/QQQ remain in uptrends, this character change could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market and a rotation into other groups. $SPY $QQQ $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $RSP

Today’s report starts with our weight-of-the-evidence charts, and the evidence is bullish. We project a path forward for $SPY and $QQQ, and highlight the breakouts in $RSP, $IJH and $IJR (equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps). Attention then turns to setup consolidations in Industrials ($XLI), Communication Services ($XLC) and Finance ($XLF). We also feature breakouts in the Aerospace & Defense ETF ($ITA) and Broker Dealer & Exchanges ETF ($IAI).

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks as the bull market shows signs of broadening. The S&P 500 EW ETF hit a new high, while small-caps and mid-caps turned up. $IJH $IJR $RSP $XLV $IBB $XLI $ITA $SKYY

The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and S&P MidCap 400 ETF (IJH) are setting up with wedge/flag breakouts and short-term breadth looks poised to break out for confirmation. $IJR $IJH $SMLA50R $MIDA50R

Today’s report focuses on five ETFs. Healthcare and Natural Resources are setting up bullish. Finance failed at its 200-day. The Materials sector failed to hold its breakout as Gold Miners broke down. $XLV $XLF $XLB $GDX $IGE

Even though we are in a bull market and the cup is half full, there are clearly risks out there. Leadership is narrow and key groups are lagging. Tech and energy are leading. $RSPD $ITB $XRT $DBA $USL $UST10Y $SPY $QQQ $XLK $SOXX $IGV $MSFT $XLE $OIH $AMLP $FCG $ITA

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but three indicators suggest that semiconductors are extremely overbought and some key groups are lagging. Symbols: $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DBA $ITB $RSPD $XRT $XLK $SMH $XLI $XLB $ITA $IGE $XLE $FCG

The evidence remains bullish for stocks, but there are still sizable pockets of weakness in some key groups. For now, the AI complex and energy are leading. Symbols: $SPY $QQQ $RSP $UST10Y $DBA $USL $XLE $FCG $AMLP $MOO $IBB $XBI $IGE

This is a follow-up report on the PPO-Aroon strategy. We are featuring two ETFs with bullish Aroon signals this past week and three with bullish setups. All five are in long-term uptrends and they recently corrected within these uptrends…

$XLU $XLP $SDY $ITA $GLD

Evidence remains bullish, but oil and interest rates weigh on parts of the market. AI complex leads, breakouts in cloud and cybersecurity. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $IJH $XLK $XLI $XLB $XLE $XLU $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $SIXG $IYZ $IDGT $DTCR $TAN $CIBR $SKYY

Stocks went from risk-off in March to risk-on in April as QQQ and XLK surged 12% and 16%. Blame is on semiconductors and AI related ETFs. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $IJH $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $XLK $XLE $FCG $AMLP $TAN

emis and AI names led a sharp rebound in the stock market over the last 11 trading days. QQQ and XLK went from downtrend signals to … $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $XLK, $AIQ, $SMH, $SOXX, $PBW, $IBB, $XBI, $GLD, $GDX, $CPER, $DBB

Stocks fell short of a Zweig Breadth Thrust with the oversold bounce as it hits a moment of truth. Will the market continue to channel March 2025? $SPY $QQQ $WTIC $XLV $XLB $XLI $XLP $SMH $SOXX $ITA $PBWE $IFRA $GRID $IBB $XBI