Market Regime – Weak Rebound for Percent of Stocks above their 200-day SMAs

The long-term trends are up for the major index ETFs and their respective breadth indicators are net bullish. Long-term breadth indicators deteriorated sharply in December and rebounded in January, but the rebounds were not that strong. Around 60% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs, which means 40% are below

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ETF Video Report – Tech Lags – Health Rebounds – Cybersecurity, Defense, MLP and Gold Lead

There were many wedge breakouts in mid January and most of these breakouts are holding. Chartists must now set the level that proves these breakouts wrong. Today’s video starts with an example using the Software ETF. We then show the re-evaluation levels for several ETFs with wedge breakouts. Elsewhere, the Technology SPDR is lagging, the Healthcare SPDR is rebounding, the Biotech ETF is going for a breakout and the Gold SPDR is leading with a new high.

ETF Video Report – Tech Lags – Health Rebounds – Cybersecurity, Defense, MLP and Gold Lead Read More »

ETF Report – Re-evaluation Levels for Wedge Breakouts – 9 Leaders

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, despite an uptick in volatility and a wild news cycle. We are seeing upside leadership from finance, communication services, defense, medical devices, pipelines, cloud, cybersecurity and gold. We are also seeing lots of wedge/channel breakouts and most are holding. Here is the leading ETF symbol list

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Video/Report – AI Swoons – Cyber, Cloud & Software Lead – Biotech, Bank & Industrial Break Outs

Wait a week and the narrative will change. In mid January, our reports were featuring strength in the middle of the market and in the more mundane sectors, such as industrials, finance and utilities. Last week we saw breakouts in many tech-related ETFs as Stargate was announced. This week we are seeing AI

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AI Infrastructure Sell Off, MAGS Holds, NVDA Breaks, 3 Different AI ETFs, Semiconductors Break

Today’s report covers the sell off in AI infrastructure stocks and related ETFs. Monday’s decline were excessive, and perhaps an over-reaction, but they did some damage on the charts. NVDA broke its 200-day SMA and the two semiconductor ETFs broke support. Despite a big decline in NVDA, MAGS is holding support with help from other components. We will then look at three ETFs that represent different areas of AI (infrastructure, physical, software).

AI Infrastructure Sell Off, MAGS Holds, NVDA Breaks, 3 Different AI ETFs, Semiconductors Break Read More »

Breadth Improves Even as Major index ETFs Fall

The major index ETFs fell on Monday, but breadth actually improved as the average stock held up well. This strength under the hood, and this is positive for stocks outside of the AI infrastructure trade. Today’s report will show advancing stocks outpacing declining stocks and an increase in the percentage of S&P 500 above their 200-day SMA. In short, the broader market is still in good shape.

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Breakouts Expand into Tech-related ETFs – XLK, XLC, MAGS, BOTZ, SKYY, CIBR, SMH, IGV, IBB

The breakouts are expanding as tech-related stocks surged this week. Last week we saw breakouts in some of the more mundane groups (industrials, finance, utes). Today’s report will focus on ETFs related to tech, the Mag7, AI, cloud, cybersecurity, semiconductors and biotech. With the exception of biotech, many of these ETFs led the market from September to November and then corrected into January. Their corrections ended with surges and breakouts over the last six days.

Breakouts Expand into Tech-related ETFs – XLK, XLC, MAGS, BOTZ, SKYY, CIBR, SMH, IGV, IBB Read More »

Market Regime – Breadth Rebounds, NDX Leads, Yield Spreads Fall, 10yr Yield Falls Back

The long-term trends are up for the major index ETFs and their respective breadth indicators are net bullish. Long-term breadth indicators deteriorated in December, but rebounded sharply in mid January. Over 60% of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. Nasdaq 100 breadth is leading with 64% of its stocks above

Market Regime – Breadth Rebounds, NDX Leads, Yield Spreads Fall, 10yr Yield Falls Back Read More »

Stocks Setups and Breakouts – BURL, JAZZ, BMY, ZS, VEEV, ACN, APLD, CDNS

There are eight stock setups today. All stocks are in uptrends of varying degrees and sport bullish continuation setups. These setups occur when there is a pullback or bullish continuation pattern forming. If they have yet to break out, I am marking the resistance level to watch (pink line). The re-evaluation level is a support level (blue line) to watch for signs of a failure.

Stocks Setups and Breakouts – BURL, JAZZ, BMY, ZS, VEEV, ACN, APLD, CDNS Read More »

The Trading Methodology behind Falling Wedges and Subsequent Breakouts

Stocks moved sharply higher last week with several ETFs breaking out of corrective patterns. In particular, there are several falling wedge breakouts so I will detail this pattern using XLI as an example. I will show the prerequisites (uptrend), the Bullish Setup Zone, the pattern signal and the re-evaluation level. After this section, I will link to a PDF report that highlights these breakouts and sets the re-evaluation levels going forward.

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Strength Emerging in the Middle, Finance, Industrials and Utilities Lead, Gold and Industrial Metals Move

After rising sharply from mid December to mid January, Treasury yields fell sharply on benign CPI numbers. The 10-yr Treasury Yield remains in a long-term uptrend with a breakout, but short-term yields are still trending lower and more reflective of Fed policy. The decline in yields sparked a buying binge on Wall Street with leadership coming from the middle of the market (mid-caps). Broad strength in mid-caps triggered a breadth thrust for this group. We are also seeing leadership in ETFs related to finance, industrials and utilities. Seven feature in today’s report. The Gold SPDR and DB Base Metals ETF are also going for breakouts, as is IBIT.

Strength Emerging in the Middle, Finance, Industrials and Utilities Lead, Gold and Industrial Metals Move Read More »

Long-term Breadth has Yet to Break, Yield Spreads Show No Stress, Fed Easing, 10yr Yield Ignoring

The long-term breadth indicators deteriorated in December, but did not fall enough to trigger bearish signals. The absence of bearish signals means the weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. This also means the current weakness is considered a correction within a bigger bull market. All bear market signals start with corrections, but not all corrections lead to bear market signals.

Long-term Breadth has Yet to Break, Yield Spreads Show No Stress, Fed Easing, 10yr Yield Ignoring Read More »

A Breadth Divergence, SPY/QQQ Hold, Small-caps Fold, XLK Oversold, Industrials-Defense Set Up

The evidence still supports a bull market, but stocks are in the midst of a corrective phase. I am watching short-term breadth indicators for thrust signals that would signal an end to the correction. SPY and QQQ are holding up best, while IWM and KRE (banks) lead lower. Elsewhere, I see promising setups in Industrials and Defense ETFs, as well as a critical support test for the Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

A Breadth Divergence, SPY/QQQ Hold, Small-caps Fold, XLK Oversold, Industrials-Defense Set Up Read More »

SPY/QQQ Hold Up, MDY/IWM Draw Battle Lines, 6 Short-term Breakouts, 4 Pullback Setups, Breakouts in Semis

Report with video. The weight of the evidence remains bullish, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness within the market. SPY and QQQ are holding up, but RSP and IWM have yet to recover since their December declines. We draw the battle lines. The Industrials SPDR and Finance SPDR are in pullback mode and near Bullish Setup Zone. We also highlight several ETFs with short-term breakouts and bullish setups.

SPY/QQQ Hold Up, MDY/IWM Draw Battle Lines, 6 Short-term Breakouts, 4 Pullback Setups, Breakouts in Semis Read More »

Levels to Watch for Breadth Thrusts, Small-caps Fail at Breakout Attempt, Semiconductor ETFs Break Out

Today’s report will show the deterioration in long-term breadth and the key levels to watch for short-term breadth. We will then review the breakout in the 10-yr Yield and breakdown in the Home Construction ETF. Attention then turns to the key levels for SPY, QQQ and a number of important ETFs. We close with the breakouts in the semiconductor ETFs (SMH and SOXX).

Levels to Watch for Breadth Thrusts, Small-caps Fail at Breakout Attempt, Semiconductor ETFs Break Out Read More »

Video – Breadth Stays Oversold, Large-caps and Techs Lead, Small and Mids Lag, Lots of Pullbacks within Bigger Uptrends

Today’s video starts with the long-term breadth indicators to establish the market regime. Short-term breadth became oversold and remains oversold after a weak bounce. We will set the level needed for a bullish thrust. Large-caps and techs are leading, while mid-caps and small-caps feel the heat from rising rates. A rough December produced pullbacks and many ETFs are trading in bullish setup zones. We cover these and identify short-term resistance going forward.

Video – Breadth Stays Oversold, Large-caps and Techs Lead, Small and Mids Lag, Lots of Pullbacks within Bigger Uptrends Read More »

A Rough December, Pullbacks within Uptrends, Marking Setup Zones and Resistance, Gold, Bitcoin and China

Today’s report starts with average stocks (equal-weight, mid-caps and small-caps). These groups fell rather sharply in December and gave back their November gains. They have fallen and cannot get back up. Many are trading near bullish setups zones, but remain short of breakouts needed to reverse the short-term pullbacks. We will set the key levels to watch for a dozen ETFs with setups. Attention then turns to gold, Bitcoin and China.

A Rough December, Pullbacks within Uptrends, Marking Setup Zones and Resistance, Gold, Bitcoin and China Read More »

Warning Signs vs Weight of the Evidence, Oversold Double Dip, Leading Tech, SMH Holds Triangle Breakout

Some warning signs appeared in December, but the weight of the evidence remains bullish. We will start with the long-term breadth indicators and then show the oversold conditions in the short-term breadth indicators. SPY and QQQ are still in long-term uptrends and testing their 50-day SMAs. Meanwhile, tech-related ETFs are leading as SMH holds its 200-day SMA.

Warning Signs vs Weight of the Evidence, Oversold Double Dip, Leading Tech, SMH Holds Triangle Breakout Read More »

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