Complimentary Analysis

Complimentary

Timing S&P 500 Swings Using the Bullish Percent Index

The Bullish Percent Index is a breadth indicator that quantifies double top breakouts and double bottom breakdowns, Point & Figure style. Basically, this indicator measures higher highs (breakouts) versus lower lows (breakdowns). This makes it a great candidate to quantify underlying strength and weakness in the S&P 500. There have been three signals in the last few months and one triggered this week.

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Complimentary

Strong April Seasonality Gives Way to May and June

When it comes to analysis and trading signals, seasonality is behind price action in the pecking order of importance. In general, seasonal patterns carry most weight when they jibe with the underlying trend. For example, bullish seasonal patterns in an uptrend can provide a tailwind.

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Complimentary

Big Biotechs Make a Big Statement

The two most popular biotech ETFs are leading the market this month and making big statements. Before looking at these two, note that they are quite different. The Biotech ETF (IBB) is dominated by large-cap biotechs with the top ten holdings accounting for over 50%. The Biotech SPDR (XBI), on the other hand, is a broad-based ETF with the top ten holdings accounting for less than 25% of the ETF.

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Complimentary

Quantifying Leaders and Laggards on this Historic Bounce

Chartists looking to measure relative performance based on retracements can use the Stochastic Oscillator to quantify these bounces. Way back on March 1st, I posted an article to show how Chartists can quantify downside retracements using Williams %R.

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Complimentary

Setting Expectations for Post-Crash Price Action

The S&P 500 moved from a 52-week high to a 52-week low with lightening speed over the last three weeks. To capture the sharpness of this decline, I am showing a chart with the 3-week Rate-of-Change in the indicator window.

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Complimentary

When Fibonacci Retracements and Support become Questionable

Support levels and bullish retracement zones are questionable, at best, in bear market environments. Why? Because the path of least resistance is down in a bear market. As such, the odds that a support level holds or a bullish retracement zones leads to a reversal odds greatly reduced

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Complimentary

Another Triple 90% Down Day – What is it and what does it mean? (with video)

Selling pressure was extremely broad in Friday with all sectors declining and more than ninety percent of stocks in the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 declining. While this kind of broad selling pressure creates a short-term oversold condition, it also reflects a change in market dynamics and points to a corrective period ahead.

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Complimentary

2019: A Year Filled with Distractions

2019 was a year with lots of distractions, and yet the S&P 500 recorded 52-week highs in six of the last nine months. The index surged 17.7% the first four months and recorded its first 52-week high in late April.

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Complimentary

A Boring Stock with a Bullish Theme for 2020

A theme is a fundamental trend that could influence a stock’s price in the coming months, or even years. As powerful as themes seem, they are still secondary to price action. There are many forces driving price movements and we cannot be expected to know them all.

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Complimentary

Are you Following the Trend or Waiting for Perfection?

We are seeing breakouts and new highs galore in the stock market. Does this sound the all clear? Hardly. Investors waiting for the all clear will probably be waiting a long time. Moreover, the “all clear” could even mark the top, because that’s just the way Mr. Market operates.

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