The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias. Chartists looking for a seasonal edge can compare benchmark metrics with the monthly performance numbers.

Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half, but kept on throwing

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged from mid October to early December, but this advance was considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. In fact, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) reversed

The S&P 500 crossed its 200-day SMA for the 173rd time since 2000 and the performance for this “signal” is not that great. Buying and selling the 200-day cross produced a lower return than buy and hold. This cross, however

2022 has been a tough market for trend-followers, but swing traders have been able to catch a few rides. Trend-followers are suffering because whipsaws are above average this year. A whipsaw occurs when an uptrend cannot extend after a bullish trend signal and the trade results in a loss.
Before looking at some trend-following stats,

Stocks surged this week with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) advancing over 5% and nearing its falling 200-day SMA. The big trend is still down because SPY recorded a 52-week low a month ago and a lower low

The S&P 500 moved to a new low from June to October, but copper held up better with a higher low and broke short-term resistance with an outsized move this week. A breakout with an outsized move shows above-average strength and it looks like the downtrend in copper is reversing.

The seasonal patterns for October and yearend are quite positive, but seasonality is just one aspect of broad market analysis and the weight of the evidence remains bearish.

The pickings are extremely thin in the markets because the vast majority of groups are in downtrends. TrendInvestorPro tracks trend signals in 274 ETFs. This list include 170 stock-based ETFs, 18 fixed income ETFs

Technical analysts often scoff at the notion that a 20% decline marks a bear market. However, a look back shows that further losses are certainly possible after a 20% decline. Over the last 25 years, the last two bear markets started with declines in excess of

Despite the bear market environment, a handful of stock-based ETFs were showing leadership with bullish Trend Composite signals. Representatives from dirty energy (XLE), clean energy (TAN) and utilities (XLU) were covered over

The broad market environment remains bearish, but one group stood out in early August and continues to stand out. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) was featured on August 1st as the Trend Composite turned bullish and clean energy

It has been a rough four weeks for stocks and oil, but the energy-related ETFs held up relatively well and remain in uptrends. The PerfChart below shows performance for SPY, oil, the DB Energy ETF (DBE) and

The short-term trends for the big three are down (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and we are in a bear market. Over the last two weeks, the short-term trend (down) aligned with the long-term trend (down). This is a powerful combination

Traders can improve the odds of success by focusing on ETFs in leading uptrends. TrendInvestorPro identifies such ETFs with a table that shows Trend Composite signals and the 52-week range

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged to its falling 200-day SMA here in August and even edged above this key level intraday on Tuesday. Even though the ETF is close to crossing above the 200-day, chartists would be better off

The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in the midst of a strong advance since mid July as it became “overbought” on July 20th and remains overbought. Today’s article will show how to measure overbought and oversold levels using StochClose, which is a version of the Stochastic Oscillator that uses closing prices.

The Composite Breadth Model at TrendInvestorPro has been bearish since April 11th and remains bearish, which suggests that the current bounce in SPY is a counter-trend advance within a bigger downtrend. Also note that

Led by its top two components, Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), the  Solar Energy ETF (TAN) followed a bullish

The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) is reversing its downswing after becoming oversold within an uptrend. This analysis will cover the long-term trend using the chart and Trend Composite, the oversold conditions using the Momentum Composite and the short-term breakout over the last few days.

The bigger trend is one of the most important factors to consider when trading stocks or ETFs. We can use trend signals as part of a trend-following strategy or to dictate our trading bias. I look for bullish setups and pullback opportunities

Sector PerfCharts provide clear performance snapshots of the market mood and the market mood is defensive. The PerfCharts below show the percentage change for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the eleven sectors. These sectors can be divided into three groups: offensive sectors, defensive sectors and other.

After a big surge in the second half of March, stocks fell back this week as the S&P 500 declined around 2%. This modest decline is warranted after the March surge, but it was not enough to push sentiment to an extreme. The AAII Bears are back above 40%, but two other sentiment indicators barely budged.

Volatility is through the roof for many commodities and commodity-related ETFs, but this does not mean we have to abandon technical analysis and classic setups. High volatility does, however, imply higher risk and we probably need to give setups a little more wiggle room.