The broad market environment is the single most important factor to consider when investing in stocks or stock-related ETFs. Are we in a bull market or a bear market? The recent expansion of new lows and the 5/200 cross in the S&P 500 suggest that we are in a bear market environment.

The pickings are rather slim with just 61 of the 276 ETFs in the TrendInvestorPro Master List in uptrends. Unsurprisingly, most of the ETFs in uptrends are related to commodities (energy, metals, agriculture). Outside of commodities, we are seeing

The chart below shows the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) with two sets of annotations: a future possibility and the current reality. The future possibility shows that a bullish reversal could be

Buyers and sellers are slugging it out for control of the long-term trend for the S&P 500. This battle is raging near the 200-day SMA, which is perhaps the most widely followed long-term moving average. The S&P 500 is also the most widely followed benchmark for US stocks.

It’s been a rough year for much of the market, but the Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) is bucking the selling pressure as it challenges its 2021 highs and the price relative breaks out. There is also a big

The 200-day SMA is quite the battle zone when it comes to the S&P 500. In fact, the index has crossed this key moving average 165 times since 2000. That’s a lot of crosses, and a lot of needless whipsaws. Chartists can reduce whipsaws and improve performance by applying

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) reversed its uptrend signal from April 17th, 2020 as two trend-following indicators turned bearish this week. The chart below shows QQQ with the deepest decline from a high since the 10.9% decline in

The DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) was featured in ChartWatchers on October 1st as it formed a large cup-with-handle pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern

Setting expectations is part of a strategy and this includes expectations for the number of signals we can expect in any given year. Signal frequency, of course, depends on your strategy and timeframe. Short-term mean-reversion

The Networking ETF (IGN) is leading the market with a solid uptrend and a new high this week. Diving into the group, I found a stock that recently broke out and formed a

Signs of risk aversion are increasing in the financial markets. Risk aversion first appeared in the junk bond market in October and this week we are seeing money move into Treasury bonds, the ultimate safe havens.

Stocks were slammed on Black Friday with small-caps leading the way lower and stay-at-home stocks bouncing. The declines were big, but they should be put into perspective. First, Black Friday is pretty much a holiday and trading volume was well below average on the Nasdaq and NYSE. It does not take much to move

The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week, and last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF and relative strength in

We have all heard of trend-following and many us employ trend indicators in our strategies. But how do these indicators actually perform over an extended period of time and in varying market conditions? Let’s look at an example.

Moving averages are classic trend-following indicators and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. This article will put the 200-day to the test using the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

The Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) came to life here in October with a six percent surge that could signal the beginning of the end for a long correction. IFRA underperformed from May to mid September, but is now

Stocks surged for the second Thursday in as many weeks, but this Thursday’s surge was a lot different than the previous week. This week’s surge featured a strong open and strong close as well as the strongest breadth in four months. What does it mean going forward? Let’s investigate.

Chartists looking to trade in the direction of the bigger trend have two options. First, take trend signals and act when the trend turns up. Once an uptrend is underway, chartists must then rely on

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) threw a tantrum this week with the biggest two day decline since March 2020, which was a very chaotic month. With a sharp decline in bonds, the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke above its summer highs and the bulls

The AAII indicators make some waves this past week as AAII percent bears surged to 39.3% and percent bulls dropped to 22.40%. As a result, net bull-bear percentage plunged to -16.90%, the first negative reading since

Chartists often face a conundrum when a new trend signal triggers because the stock or ETF is frequently extended when this signal triggers. After all, it takes strong buying pressure for a new uptrend to signal. Short-term overbought or extended conditions are long-term bullish, but these

Today’s commentary will start with price chart analysis for a clean energy ETF, which once led the market with triple digit gains. After a corrective period, it appears that this high flying ETF and a few of its brethren are turning up again with recent trend signals. We will start with the price chart analysis and then turn to the systematic signals.

The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) provides a case in point. On the chart below, notice how RSI surged above 70 in late November and exceeded 70 again in January

The Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the 10-yr Treasury Yield are positively correlated and the recent surge in the 10-yr yield led to a breakout in the Regional Bank ETF.