Complimentary Analysis

Complimentary

The Key to the August Breakouts – with Video (Free)

Stocks surged in the second half of August with several ETFs breaking out of corrective patterns, such as falling flags or falling wedges. Even though September is a seasonally weak month, these breakouts are bullish until proven otherwise. Today’s commentary will analyze the breakout in the Technology SPDR (XLK).

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Complimentary

Seasonality versus Simply Market Timing (Public)

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the best six-month period runs from November to April. The worst six-month period runs from May to October. This is where the phrase “sell in May and go away” comes from. There is some validity to the best

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Complimentary

A Nasdaq 100 Stock Showing Relative Strength in August (Free)

Stocks were hit hard in August with QQQ leading the way lower and breaking its July low. Stocks that did not break their July lows are holding up better and showing relative strength. These are the stocks I want on my WatchList for tradable pullbacks and short-term breakouts.

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Complimentary

Finding the Leaders with ATR Momentum (Free)

Chartists can find leaders by ranking ETF performance in ATR multiples, and there is even an indicator for that. Normalized-ROC puts point performance in ATR multiples and we can compare these values against others. Current Normalized-ROC

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Complimentary

Will the Generals follow the Troops? (Free)

Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the

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Complimentary

A Risk-off Alternative Turns Up as Stocks Falter (Free)

Sometimes markets trend, sometimes they oscillate and sometimes they simply frustrate. I would venture to guess that trading since 2022 falls into the frustration basket. Trend following and momentum strategies are suffering because big moves

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Complimentary

SPY Has a Clear Level to Beat (Free)

The S&P 500 has been trending lower since the peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and

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Complimentary

Trade Like Trevor (Free)

Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half, but kept on throwing

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Complimentary

Trend-Followers Get the Whip, while Swing Traders Catch the Ride (Free)

2022 has been a tough market for trend-followers, but swing traders have been able to catch a few rides. Trend-followers are suffering because whipsaws are above average this year. A whipsaw occurs when an uptrend cannot extend after a bullish trend signal and the trade results in a loss.
Before looking at some trend-following stats,

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Complimentary

How to Find the True Market Leaders (Free)

Stocks surged this week with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) advancing over 5% and nearing its falling 200-day SMA. The big trend is still down because SPY recorded a 52-week low a month ago and a lower low

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Complimentary

Copper Breaks with an Outsized Move (Free)

The S&P 500 moved to a new low from June to October, but copper held up better with a higher low and broke short-term resistance with an outsized move this week. A breakout with an outsized move shows above-average strength and it looks like the downtrend in copper is reversing.

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Complimentary

Bear Markets and the 20% Threshold (Free)

Technical analysts often scoff at the notion that a 20% decline marks a bear market. However, a look back shows that further losses are certainly possible after a 20% decline. Over the last 25 years, the last two bear markets started with declines in excess of

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