ETF Report – Forget Support in Downtrends – 2008 Comparison – Bonds, Gold & Yen

Before looking at the current extremes, keep in mind that the weight of the evidence on the Market Regime page is bearish. We are in a bear market, and bear market rules apply. Support levels are less likely to hold and Bullish Setups are less likely to work. Stocks are extremely oversold right now: long-term and short-term. These oversold conditions could lead to a bounce, but this will be considered a bear market bounce as long as the evidence remains bearish. With volatility higher in bear markets, we can expect some sharp counter-trend bounces and erratic price action.

Stocks are in a freefall with selling pressure spreading into industrial metals and other economically sensitive commodities. There are few places to hide in bear markets, and the list of alternatives continues to shrink. Bitcoin, an alternative, is holding up relatively well since March, but

Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead, but looks increasingly extended. Industrial metals are under pressure as copper turns down after a parabolic move. Agriculture is holding its breakout, while bonds are poised to break out as money moves into relative safe-havens.

Charles Dow identified three market trends. First, the primary trend is the major trend at work. This is the long-term trend. As noted in the Market Regime report, the weight of the evidence is bearish and this applies to the primary trend. The primary trend cannot be manipulated. Second

Short-term, the stock market became oversold in mid March and ripe for a bounce. Longer term, however, the weight of the evidence is bearish and the major index ETFs are in downtrends (SPY, QQQ, RSP). This means we are looking at the possibility of a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend, which is not an ideal situation.

Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets as it trades near all time highs. Copper is next in line as it goes parabolic and nears overbought levels. Bonds are confused with the TLT breaking down as IEF holds within a bullish consolidation. Bitcoin got an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend and a bearish pattern is taking shape.

The major index ETFs broke down in March, became oversold and got oversold bounces. Long-term trend reversals remain for SPY, QQQ and XLK. This means the recent bounces are counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. ETFs related to housing, retail and semiconductors continue to lag and support a risk-off environment. Defensive names are holding up the best (Utilities, Insurance, MLP, Telecom). Most tech-related ETFs are in long-term downtrends, but two are holding up relatively well with short-term breakouts recently.

This is an update for the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicators, which were featured on March 21st. The S&P 500 and S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust indicators became oversold with moves below -20% on March 13th. The black arrows on the SPY chart (bottom window) show the oversold setups

Stocks broke down with deep declines into mid March (11-13). These deep declines led to short-term oversold conditions, which primed the pump for the current bounce. At this point, I consider this an oversold bounce, as opposed to a bullish thrust that turns the evidence bullish. We need to see strong follow through to go from oversold bounce to bullish thrust.

Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets with strength transferring to the Gold Miners. The only concern is the overbought condition, which is fast approaching. Copper surged to a new high and Coppers Miners broke out. Bonds remain in an uptrend as TLT bids for a short-term breakout. Bitcoin bounces within downtrend.

Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that are still in long-term uptrends and showing relative strength. My short list is based on ETFs with year-to-date gains because they show absolute and relative strength this year. Note that SPY is down 4.3% year-to-date.

This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators measure participation within the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Finally, we analyze yield spreads to see if the credit market show confidence or stress.

Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that are still in long-term uptrends and showing relative strength. My short list is based on ETFs with year-to-date gains. SPY is down 3.23% this year. 23 of the 60 equity ETFs in

Today’s report will cover the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs that were featured in yesterday’s video. Precious metals are leading the commodity complex and this strength is transferring to the gold and silver miners ETFs. Industrial metals ETFs are not far behind with copper taking the lead here. Even so, copper miners remain subdued and have yet to break out. I am not covering

We have two videos on this page. First, there is a comprehensive video covering index, sector and industry group ETFs (equity ETFs). SPY and QQQ broke down, a couple sectors are holding up and a handful of industry group ETFs have yet to break their January lows. We then turn commodity ETFs, which are showing strength, as our bond ETFs. This vid conclude with the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

Stocks were broadsided the last three weeks with almost all equity ETFs losing ground. High-beta names are leading lower with the ARK ETFs (ARKK, ARKF, ARKG) down over 25%. Tech-related ETFs are right behind with declines ranging from 11.43% for Cybersecurity (CIBR) to 19.76% for Robotics AI (ARTY). Only four equity ETFs in my trading universe are showings

There are five new setups today and some updates to prior setups. We start with three stocks from the defense industry because the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is one of the leading industry group ETFs. I am also featuring a pharma stock (BMY) because the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is showing relative strength here in 2025. And finally, we have an off-price retailer (TJX). Even though it is

There are sizable and concerning pockets of weakness within the stock market, but SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends and testing key levels. The EW S&P 500 ETF, Technology SPDR and Industrials SPDR joined the breakdown list, along with small-caps (IJR) and mid-caps (MDY). One tech ETF stands out. We are also seeing long-term uptrends and relative strength in these eight ETFs (XLF, XLC, XLU, CIBR, IHI, AMLP, IYZ, GLD).

Stocks were hit hard the last two weeks with small-caps and tech stocks leading the way lower. SPY is down around 4.6% from its late February high and entering the garden-variety correction range (5-8 percent). Believe it or not, five to eight percent pullbacks are not that uncommon – but they feel a lot worse