Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
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QQQ and Tech stocks are going it alone as high energy prices and surging Treasury yields weigh on the rest of the market. Oil is up 20% over the last four weeks and the 10-yr yield surged 50 basis points, exceeding 5%. High energy prices and high interest rates are one thing, while an accelerating rate of ascent is another. We have seen an energy and interest rate shock this month. Gold is holding up relatively well, but there are headwinds for precious metals. Copper, base metals and agriculture remain in clear uptrends, while uranium sets up with a bull flag. $UST10Y $UST2Y $USL $UGA $USD $GLD $GDX $SLV $CPER $DBB $DBA $SRUUF
The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) are off to the races again with AMD and Intel (INTC) leading the charge. Today’s report focuses on semiconductor equipment stocks. These are the companies that supply the tools needed to manufacture and test semiconductors. Semiconductor Equipment stocks account for 16.6% of SOXX and 18.5% of SMH. At the end of the chart analysis, I included an AI overview of the industry group and some key stocks. $AMAT $LRCX $ASML $TER $AEHR $SMH $SOXX
There is some serious bifurcation in the stock market right now, but this has yet to affect SPY, which is heavily weighted towards the Technology sector. Tech and AI are strong since August, but Industrials, Retail and Housing are weak. This is a sort of rolling rotation where money moves out of one part and into another. Today’s report will focus on the leaders: tech, AI, MAGS, cybersecurity, software and cloud. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $XLC $MAGS $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $DRAM $SKYY $CIBR $IGV
The Mag7 ETF struggled in June-July, but got its mojo back in August with a breakout. Not only did the ETF break out, but it followed through on this breakout with a strong September. MAGS is even starting to outperform. $MAGS
Performance within the Mag7 ETF is mixed with two clear leaders, two clear laggards and a downtrend. Apple and Nvidia have the strongest uptrends. Alphabet is consolidating within an uptrend and trying to turn up. Amazon is in a choppy uptrend with a tradable pullback underway. Meta and Microsoft are all over the place with volatile swings the last few months. Telsa is the basket case of the group with a long-term downtrend and bearish setup. $AAPL $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $META $MSFT $TSLA
Commodities, stocks and the Dollar are higher since March, while gold and bonds are lower. I picked March because this is when the war with Iran broke out and oil surged. The 12-month Oil Fund (USL) is up some 47% since March. Other commodity groups are also higher (base metals, copper and agriculture). $GLD $GDX $SLV $UST2Y $SPY $IWM $RSP $CPER $DBB $USL $SRUUF $BLOK
Today’s report focuses on two stocks from the Healthcare Providers ETF (IHF) and two from the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA). IHF is leading the market as it consolidates near its highs. HCA Corp and Universal Health Services show signs of bottoming over the last few months. Aerospace & Defense was leading the market in August, but took a hard hit over the last four weeks. Lockheed Martin and RTX Corp pulled back within the group and became oversold within their uptrends. $LMT $RTX $HCA $UHS
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but oil, interest rates and inflation are taking their toll on parts of the market. Small-caps are bearing the brunt of recent selling pressure with large-caps and large-cap techs holding up better since August. Semis are at a moment of truth, while the AI/Tech ETFs are holding their breakouts. Elsewhere, I am seeing bullish setups in Regional Banks, Telecom, Healthcare Providers and Medical Devices. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $IWM $AIQ $ARTY $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $IHI $IHF $KRE
SPY is within 3% of a 52-week high, but small-caps took a hit and new lows are expanding. This expansion, however, has yet to derail a bullish signal from May 2025. Today’s report will review this bullish signal and show the key levels to watch. We will also set bear market thresholds for SPY and new lows. $SPY !NEWHISPX !NEWLOSPX $SPXHLP
The intermarket picture is negative for the average stock (equal-weights, small-caps and mid-caps). Rates are rising and this rise is accelerating. Rising oil prices are stoking inflation. Value and energy are leading within the stock market, while consumer discretionary and industrials move lower. Tech and semis are holding up well since August, and keeping SPY/QQQ afloat. Today’s report also covers gold, copper, uranium and blockchain. $IEF $UST2Y, $UST10Y, $XLY $GLD $CPER $SRUUF $BLOK
Technology, energy and utilities moved higher on Tuesday, while the other eight sectors closed lower. Performance was also lopsided within the technology sector. Semis (SOXX, SMH, DRAM) moved higher, while the MAG7 (MAGS), Software (IGV), Cloud (SKYY), Cybersecurity (CIBR) and Fintech (FINX) moved lower. Tuesday is just one day, but the split has been building since August. Tech and semis are holding up, but there are sizable pockets of weakness that include consumer discretionary and housing. $USL $XLE $XLU $IJR $IJH !GT200SPX
While there are some sizable pockets of weakness within the market and rolling rotations underway, the weight of the evidence remains bullish. It is still a bull market. Tech surged in April-May, corrected in June-July and resumed its leadership in August-September. Tech leadership came at the expense of industrials, utilities, housing and retail, which moved lower. Seasonally, September is one of the weakest months for stocks. Perhaps this seasonal pattern is already playing out in some of the more economically sensitive areas. $SPY $QQQ $XLK $AIQ $ARTY $IYZ $SKYY $IGV $CIBR
The Semiconductor ETF fell pretty hard in July, but the decline was always viewed as a correction because it met the retracement requirements and formed a typical corrective pattern. Chartists looking for signals that a correction is ending can turn to Percent B and SMH %Above 50-day SMA. Both became oversold in July and one became oversold in early September. This means SMH is again setting up bullish as it corrects within a bigger uptrend. $SMH !GT40SMH
The Semiconductor ETFs (SMH & SOXX) and the Memory ETF (DRAM) broke out with surges into August and then corrected into early September. The August breakouts were medium-term bullish and the current corrections provide short-term setups. This report will identify the patterns at work, the key levels to watch and the one showing relative strength. $SMH $SOXX $DRAM $NVDA $TSM $MU
The Industrials SPDR was hit hard over the last two weeks, but the long-term trend remains up and oversold conditions are present. Today’s report will show a long-term breadth indicator to define the trading bias and three short-term breadth indicators to identify oversold conditions. Attention then turns to XLI’s largest industry group, the Aerospace & Defense. $XLI !GT200XLI !GT50XLI !GT20XLI $ITA