What Happens to Bitcoin Should QQQ Correct?

The odds are increasing for a correction in the stock market. This week we looked at three indicators pointing in that direction and provided targets for SPY and QQQ. Small-caps and mid-caps could feel it the most because they are still underperforming large-caps. A broad market correction would also weigh on most sector and industry groups.

The table below shows SPY and the 11 sector SPDRs with the Correlation Coefficient (65,SPY) in the right column. The Technology SPDR (XLK) has the strongest positive correlation (.994), which means XLK almost always moves in the same direction as SPY. Thus, should SPY correct, the chances are very high that XLK will correct, and QQQ by extension. 

At the bottom of the table, the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) have the weakest correlations to SPY (<. 10). These two may be the most immune to a correction in SPY.

This week at TrendInvestorPro:

  • 3 Indicators Pointing to a Correction and Targets for SPY/QQQ
  • Tech ETFs Lead the Way, but become very Extended
  • Utilities Break Out, Gold Maintains Bullish Pattern, IBIT Support Levels
  • The Ultimate ETF ChartLists – Delivered to your StockCharts Account

Click here to see are most recent reports and videos.

Bitcoin, QQQ and Correlation

But what about equity alternatives, such as Bitcoin? For clues on Bitcoin,  chartists can compare performance and use correlation analysis. The chart below shows Price Performance for the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in blue and QQQ in pink. IBIT is the clear winner since January 2024 with a 134% gain. QQQ is up a meager 37.5% (LOL).

The blue shading shows periods when they rose together and the pink shading shows a period when they fell together. Rising and falling together means they are positively correlated. This correlation is especially strong since late March 2025.

The indicator window quantifies this correlation using the Correlation Coefficient (65). This indicator was negative in July-August 2024, but positive since September 2024 and above .50 since March 2025. This shows a strong positive correlation the last five months, which makes sense because IBIT and QQQ are risk-on assets. As such, they will likely rise and fall together.

Click here to see are more recent reports and videos.

Rotation Investor NDX100 – Signals & Portfolio

This page covers the signals and portfolio for the rotation strategy trading Nasdaq 100 stocks (RO-Investor-NDX). The strategy starts with our stock market breadth model to define the broad market environment. There is a table showing the current portfolio, gain/loss and new entry/exit signals. Two sidebars make it easy to compare the current ranking with the prior week’s ranking, and see which stocks made the cut. A second table shows the most recent closed positions with their gain/loss and bars traded.

Rotation Investor NDX100 – Signals & Portfolio Read More »

Rotation Investor SPX500 – Signals & Portfolio

This page covers the signals and portfolio for the rotation strategy trading S&P 500 stocks (RO-Investor-SPX). The strategy starts with our stock market breadth model to define the broad market environment. There is a table showing the current portfolio, gain/loss and new entry/exit signals. Two sidebars make it easy to compare the current ranking with the prior week’s ranking, and see which stocks made the cut. A second table shows the most recent closed positions with their gain/loss and bars traded.

Rotation Investor SPX500 – Signals & Portfolio Read More »

Rotation Investor ETF – Signals and Portfolio

This page covers the signals and portfolio for the rotation strategy trading ETFs (RO-Investor-ETF). The strategy starts with our stock market breadth model to define ETF eligibility. There is a table showing the current portfolio, gain/loss and new entry/exit signals. Two sidebars make it easy to compare the current ranking with the prior week’s ranking, and see which ETFs made the cut. A second table shows the most recent closed positions with their gain/loss and bars traded.

Rotation Investor ETF – Signals and Portfolio Read More »

Broad Breadth Model – Current Signal

Updated at the end of every week (usually Saturday mornings), this page shows charts and current signals for the Broad Breadth Model (BBM). The model uses an array of breadth indicators from various indexes for a weight of the evidence approach to assess conditions for the broader stock market (large-caps, mid-caps, small-caps). Stock market conditions are favorable when this model is bullish (positive) and unfavorable when the model is bearish (negative).

Broad Breadth Model – Current Signal Read More »

Rotation Investor ETF – Ranking Table

This page covers the ranking table for the rotation strategy trading ETFs (RO-Investor-ETF). The ranking table shows the ETF universe with a sortable prefix, which makes it easy to find specific groups (tech ETFs, commodity ETFs). Table indicators include the Momentum Rank, Trend Trio (up/down), Broad Breadth Model (bull/bear), the momentum indicator and the 5-day change in momentum. The default sort puts the strongest ETFs at the top and each ETF includes a SharpChart link.

Rotation Investor ETF – Ranking Table Read More »

Rotation Investor NDX100 – Ranking Table

This page covers the ranking table for the rotation strategy trading Nasdaq 100 stocks (RO-Investor-NDX). The ranking table includes the sector and industry for sorting to find specific groups (software, semiconductor). Table indicators include the Momentum Rank, PPO Trend (up/down), Broad Breadth Model (bull/bear), the NDX momentum indicator and the 5-day change in momentum. The default sort puts the strongest stocks at the top and each stock includes a SharpChart link.

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Trend Composite Signals for S&P 500 Stocks

This page shows Trend Composite signals for stocks in the S&P 500. The Trend Composite aggregate trend signals in five trend-following indicators. Recent signals appear at the top of the table. Users can also sort by different columns and single out specific sectors using the search function. Stocks in uptrends are color coded green for quick identification. This table includes the signal date, gain/loss since the signal and a chart link.

Trend Composite Signals for S&P 500 Stocks Read More »

Rotation Investor SPX500 – Ranking Table

This page covers the ranking table for the rotation strategy trading S&P 500 stocks (RO-Investor-SPX). The ranking table includes the sector and industry for sorting to find specific groups (housing, semiconductor). Table indicators include the Momentum Rank, Trend Filter (strong/not), Broad Breadth Model (bull/bear), the SPX momentum indicator and the 5-day change in momentum. The default sort puts the strongest stocks at the top and each stock includes a SharpChart link.

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Trend Signals & StochClose Rank for ETFs

Using a 270 ETF universe, this page covers Trend Composite signals for trend and StochClose values for ranking. Users can identify new trend signals, track existing signals and see the percentage change. Sortable columns make it easy to filter for uptrends and then sort by StochClose to rank trend strength. The table includes links to a StockCharts chart with corresponding indicators.

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Volatility in Crypto and Commodity ETFs – Bitcoin and QQQ Correlation (w/ video)

Volatility is on the rise the last three months with huge moves in AI related stocks, metals and crypto. Volatility is great when you are on the right side, but keep in mind that volatility goes both ways. Steep rises often give way to volatile consolidations or corrections. Volatility also skews the charts and makes

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Video – Non-tech Leaders – Blockchain, Telecom, Banking, Defense, Infrastructure

In addition to the tech ETFs, I am seeing leadership in a handful of non-tech ETFs. These include Blockchain, Telecom, Banking, Defense and Infrastructure. The MLP ETF is not a leader because the price-relative is declining, but it sports a breakout on the price chart and recaptured the 200-day SMA. Elsewhere, the Gold SPDR and Bitcoin ETF remain in leading uptrends.

Video – Non-tech Leaders – Blockchain, Telecom, Banking, Defense, Infrastructure Read More »

Video – Tech ETFs Lead, but Extended – CIBR Short-term Relative Weakness

Tech-related ETFs are leading the market with massive moves the last three months. They are in strong uptrends, but getting overextended and ripe for a corrective period. For example, the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) are up around 50% since May. Straight up. Today’s video will highlight the overbought conditions and show the support zones to watch going forward.

Video – Tech ETFs Lead, but Extended – CIBR Short-term Relative Weakness Read More »

Bond Breakout – Utes Lead – Gold Forms Bullish Pattern – Healthcare Oversold

The Fed will make its policy statement on Wednesday afternoon and this could cause some volatility in inter-market related assets. These include stocks, bonds, gold, the Dollar and Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is a new addition to the intermarket arena. Today’s report will cover the 7-10Yr TBond ETF (IEF), which is breaking out ahead of the Fed announcement. We are also seeing high-yield ETFs move

Bond Breakout – Utes Lead – Gold Forms Bullish Pattern – Healthcare Oversold Read More »

Market Regime – Bull Market for Large-caps and Tech, but Small and Mid Caps Drag

Stocks started their bull run with a Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th and SPY triggered a 5/200 one percent cross on May 15th. Long-term breadth indicators were lagging in May, but started catching up in June with the Nasdaq 100 turning net bullish on June 10th. QQQ and Nasdaq 100 stocks led the surge off the April lows and continue

Market Regime – Bull Market for Large-caps and Tech, but Small and Mid Caps Drag Read More »

ROC(65) Shows Escape Velocity – Steepest Slope Ever – Setups Going Forward

Today’s report will take a step back and analyze the historic surge off the April low. History suggests that this powerful move is long-term bullish. We will then look at the V reversal off the March 2020 low and see what worked as the bull market extended. In particular, we will show the short-term bullish patterns and oversold conditions that offered opportunities.

ROC(65) Shows Escape Velocity – Steepest Slope Ever – Setups Going Forward Read More »

Chart Mania – 23 ATR Move in QQQ – Metals Lead 2025 – XLV Oversold – XLU Breakout – ITB Moment of Truth

Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at TrendInvestorPro. SPY and QQQ are leading the market, but the tech trade is looking extended and ripe for a rest. Small-caps are still underperforming large-caps. Even though Utilities are not leading in percentage terms, XLU is leading

Chart Mania – 23 ATR Move in QQQ – Metals Lead 2025 – XLV Oversold – XLU Breakout – ITB Moment of Truth Read More »

Alt ETF Report – Metal Mania – Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper Hit New Highs

ETFs related to tech and industrials are leading the equity side of the market, but there are still plenty of alternative ETFs leading. Alternative ETFs are those related to bonds, commodities and crypto (non equity). Even though the Gold Miners, Silver Miners and Metals & Mining ETFs are based on common stocks, the underlying companies are involved with commodities and benefiting from the bull market

Alt ETF Report – Metal Mania – Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper Hit New Highs Read More »

Market-ETF Video – Breadth Improves – Tech ETFs Overextended – Utes Break Out – Metals Surge

Breadth continues to improve as the weight of the evidence turned bullish for the S&P 500. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks continue to lead, but S&P 1500 stocks are lagging because of small and mid caps. Nevertheless, IJH and IJR have breakouts working. Tech-related ETFs are in leading uptrends and looking extended after big moves.

Market-ETF Video – Breadth Improves – Tech ETFs Overextended – Utes Break Out – Metals Surge Read More »

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