Complimentary Analysis

Complimentary

It all Started with a Big Bang! (Free)

Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify “big bang” moves by showing price change in ATR terms. We can use the price charts to identify big breakouts. Today’s example will show

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Complimentary

This Housing-Related Stock Just Printed a 5 for the Trend Composite

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a new closing high this week. While this high is certainly bullish and points to upside leadership, the real signal triggered back in early July as the Trend Composite turned bullish with an outsized move. Let’s review this signal and then look at a recent signal in

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Complimentary

TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.

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Complimentary

Small-caps Break Out and Lead – Now What?

Small-caps took the lead over the last two weeks with the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) surging over 10% in five days and hitting a new high. IJR also broke out of a long consolidation and this breakout is bullish. There are now three possibilities going forward

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Complimentary

Finding Emerging Leaders within Key Groups

The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I am also seeing mixed performance within the technology sector and within specific groups. Semiconductors are strong overall, but groups like cybersecurity

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Complimentary

Alibaba Returns to the Scene of the Crime

Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining some 40% and breaking its 200-day SMA. FXI then fell back over the last few weeks. This surge and pullback created a potential opportunity because some stocks

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Complimentary

Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs?

Stocks fell sharply into late April and then rebounded over the last two weeks. SPY fell 5.34% from March 28th to April 19th and then rebounded with a 3.26% gain the last two weeks. Does this bounce have legs? Chartists can separate

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Complimentary

20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Resumes its Downtrend

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the

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Complimentary

Spotting Tradable Pullbacks after Trend Reversing Surges

Most stocks surged with the broader market in the fourth quarter of 2023. SPY and QQQ extended their advances in 2024, but some stocks did not partake and fell back. Even so, some of these stocks show signs of long-term trend reversals and their declines in

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Complimentary

Finding Leaders and Bullish Signals on the Price Chart

Chartists can improve their odds by focusing on stocks that are in long-term uptrends and showing upside leadership. This is similar to a dual-momentum approach, which was covered last week. Today’s example will use the 40-week SMA to define the trend, a 52-week high

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Complimentary

Capturing the Momentum Phenomenon

The momentum phenomenon has been a fixture in the US equity markets for decades. There are two types of momentum to consider: absolute momentum and relative momentum. Absolute momentum refers to the underlying trend, up or down

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