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Complimentary Analysis
The market is rising, but relatively few stocks are doing the heavy lifting. Will leadership broaden and extend this bull run or will narrow leadership lead to weakness? Today’s report will show how chartists can use new highs and new lows to quantify leadership within the
The odds are increasing for a correction in the stock market. This week at TrendInvestorPro, we looked at three indicators pointing in that direction and provided targets for SPY and QQQ. Small-caps and mid-caps could feel it the most because they are still underperforming large-caps. A broad market correction would also weigh on most sector and industry groups. Bitcoin
Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at TrendInvestorPro. SPY and QQQ are leading the market, but the tech trade is looking extended and ripe for a rest. Small-caps are still underperforming large-caps. Even though Utilities are not leading in percentage terms, XLU is leading
Chartists can improve their odds and increase the number of opportunities by trading short-term bullish setups within bigger trends. The first order of business is to identify the long-term trend using a trend-following indicator. Second, chartist can turn to more granular analysis to find short-term bullish setups. Today’s example will use the Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY).
The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) is trading at a moment of truth as its 5-day SMA returns to the 200-day SMA. A bearish trend signal triggered in early March. Despite a strong bounce from early April to mid May, this signal remains in force because it has yet to be proven otherwise. Today’s report will show how to quantify signals and reduce whipsaws using the percentage difference between two SMAs.
Three sectors stand out, with one sporting a recent breakout that argues for higher prices. Today’s report will highlight three criteria to define a leading uptrend. First, price should be above the rising 200-day SMA. Second, the price-relative should be above its rising
QQQ and tech ETFs are leading the surge off the April low, but there is another group leading year-to-date. Year-to-date performance is important because it includes two big events: the stock market decline from mid February to early April and the steep surge into early June. We need to combine these two events for a complete performance picture.
The bullish signals stacked up in April and May, but most long-term breadth indicators are still bearish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY and QQQ break
SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are
Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. There are two parts to the V reversal. First, there is the V, which is the plunge and the rebound. Second, there is the breakout move that completes the reversal. SPY fulfilled the V part, but
The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets end with a bottoming process that often goes in stages. First, there is the capitulation phase, which suggests that selling pressure reached extremes and a bottom may be close. There was a capitulation setup in early April. Second, short-term thrust indicators mark a sharp recovery after an
Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market and the vast majority of names are trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.
Panic selling and oversold extremes gave way to a rip higher last week. Stocks are poised to open strong on Monday as the market reacts positively to tariff news. Last week’s bounce is considered an oversold bounce within a bear market. Thrust signals are setting up, but strong follow through is needed to trigger actual signals. This report will first review the panic indicators and the short-term oversold condition, and then show what it would take to move from a bear market bounce to a bullish breadth thrust.
With fast-moving markets, this report is vulnerable to self-destruction within 5 days. The bond vigilantes sent a message as long-term yields surged and bonds plunged. Unless reversed, these developments are negative for stocks, especially rate sensitive stocks.
With stocks in a bear market, I am looking for alternatives that are less correlated. Bitcoin is an alternative to stocks, but it shows a strong positive correlation to the S&P 500. The chart below shows SPY in blue and Bitcoin
The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing the worst. Clearly, this is not a positive picture for the stock market. This report will show how to interpret the performance profile and separate the leaders from the laggards using a ChartList.
The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals, which capture a material increase in upside participation. There is, however, more to the indicator because traders can also use the “setup” period to identify oversold conditions. This report will explain the original Zweig Breadth Thrust and show how these signals work.
The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with Bollinger Band signals, our breadth models turned net negative and yield spreads widened. This report will focus on the breakdown in the
2025 is off to a rough start for stocks, but there are still some pockets of strength in the market. Year-to-date, SPY is down 1.73%, QQQ is down around 4% and the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) is down over 6%. ETFs with smaller losses show relative strength (less weakness), but ETFs with year-to-date gains show relative
The Russell 2000 ETF triggered a bearish trend signal this week and continues to underperform S&P 500 SPDR, which remains with a bullish trend signal. Today’s report shows the Keltner Channel signals in each. SPY is currently correcting within an uptrend and pullbacks within uptrends are opportunities
The news cycle is in high gear lately, leading to some extra volatility. Traders reacting to the news are getting whipsawed, while chartists remain focused on what really matters. Price. Price isn’t everything, it is the only thing. News, rumors, fundamentals, the Fed, government policy and
The Finance sector is leading the market with a new high this week and the Bank SPDR (KBE) is extending on its breakout. Today’s report will outline the lessons of the early January setup and show the mid January breakout. We then show how to set a re-evaluation level that would prove the breakout wrong.
The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has been leading the market for a solid four months and recorded yet another new high this week. Chartists looking to take advantage of this leadership can use two timeframes: one to establish the absolute and relative trends, and another to identify tradable pullbacks along the way. Note that CIBR has been on our radar for four months and was featured in October.
The Mag7 ETF (MAGS) formed another short-term bullish continuation pattern as it worked its way higher since the triangle breakout in mid September. This report will also analyze the long-term trends, highlight the short-term setups and compare performance for the seven component stocks.