Complimentary Analysis

Analysis

Finding and Trading Oversold Conditions within Long-term Uptrends (Free)

There is only one way to trade in a long-term uptrend: long. Forget about picking tops and breaks below short-term moving averages. Leaning bearish within a long-term uptrend is not a profitable strategy. Instead, we should lean bullish and use oversold conditions to our advantage. In a long-term uptrend, I am only interested in

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Analysis

Two Indicators to Start your Process and Improve Your Edge

There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with two proven concepts: trend and momentum. These are perhaps the two most powerful forces in the market. The idea is relatively simple: stay on the right side of the trend and focus on the leaders. This is basically dual-momentum. Starting our process with these two steps

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Analysis

Cybersecurity ETF Comes to Life with New Trending Phase (Free)

The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is resuming the lead as it surged to new highs this past week. It is important to note that CIBR began its leadership role a lot earlier because it hit a new high in late August. Today’s report will analyze the recent breakout and suggest some possibilities in the future.

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Analysis

Market Timing for a Rules-Based Strategy

Any strategy that trades stocks needs some sort of market timing mechanism to identify bull and bear markets. Typically, stock strategies are fully invested during bull markets because risk is acceptable. Strategies move to cash

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Analysis

It all Started with a Big Bang! (Free)

Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify “big bang” moves by showing price change in ATR terms. We can use the price charts to identify big breakouts. Today’s example will show

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Analysis

This Housing-Related Stock Just Printed a 5 for the Trend Composite

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a new closing high this week. While this high is certainly bullish and points to upside leadership, the real signal triggered back in early July as the Trend Composite turned bullish with an outsized move. Let’s review this signal and then look at a recent signal in

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Analysis

TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.

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Analysis

Small-caps Break Out and Lead – Now What?

Small-caps took the lead over the last two weeks with the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) surging over 10% in five days and hitting a new high. IJR also broke out of a long consolidation and this breakout is bullish. There are now three possibilities going forward

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Analysis

Finding Emerging Leaders within Key Groups

The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I am also seeing mixed performance within the technology sector and within specific groups. Semiconductors are strong overall, but groups like cybersecurity

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Analysis

Alibaba Returns to the Scene of the Crime

Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining some 40% and breaking its 200-day SMA. FXI then fell back over the last few weeks. This surge and pullback created a potential opportunity because some stocks

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Analysis

Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs?

Stocks fell sharply into late April and then rebounded over the last two weeks. SPY fell 5.34% from March 28th to April 19th and then rebounded with a 3.26% gain the last two weeks. Does this bounce have legs? Chartists can separate

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Analysis

20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Resumes its Downtrend

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the

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